Preseason I had the Longhorns with a 21.61%* chance of finishing 10-2 overall. To hit 10-2 from this point forward, they must win out (3-0). Under the new, tougher assumptions (A&M stronger, Arkansas weaker), that win-out probability is down to 18.7 %, a drop of 2.91 percentage points (down roughly 13% from preseason, reflecting A&M’s being better than expected and Arkansas’s significant downgrade).
August 13, 2025 Today
Outcome Probability Outcome Probability
12-0 1.67% *10-2 18.70%
11-1 9.48% < 9 wins 81.30%
*10-2 21.61%
< 9 wins 67.24%
Per Georgia, I originally had Texas' win probability in Athens at 40%, but if you want to be more optimistic every +5% bump in the Texas win probability at Georgia adds roughly 0.05 expected wins and +2% to Texas’s chance of finishing the season 3-0 (10-2). Moving Georgia from 40% to 55% boost Texas’s chance of running the table by 40% (18.7% to 26.3%), and more than reclaims what the Longhorns lost when I upgraded A&M's chances somewhat.