Right now we are 33 in NET, 29 in Kenpom, 27 in Massey. We will end up in the top half of tournament teams according to computer rankings, regardless of what our seed is if we get in.
Our losses are to: #1, #3, #3, #8, #9 #17, #23, #76, #112. And we have wins over: #10, #22, #29, #50. Our first game in the tournament would be against a team in the 20-50 range on a neutral court. So we are 3-1 against teams of the caliber we will get in round 1. Our 2nd game would likely be against a team in the 1-10 range. We are 1-5 on that front. Not great, but you never know.
I could see us getting an 11 seed and having to face a ~20-25 ranked team in round 1. That is winnable for this group. We win and now we are playing the winner of the 3-14 game. Worst case we face a team in the 10-12 range. Best case, there is an upset and we are facing a team ranked more like 45-50.
Bottom line, if we get in the tourney anything can happen.