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Blotto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Blotto

  1. It seems like its on an optimal path for a hurricane of this magnitude. No real population centers in danger, correct?
  2. The story of Gisele Bündchen's clam now that she's in her 40's
  3. You know she has a store on her website right? for that matter, you can buy all of it on amazon and probably have it dropped off on your doorstep by Saturday.
  4. Uncle Warren wants to make money. Berkshire has a long and extensive history in the insurance markets so he knows the financial levers. He may or may not agree with their business practices, but he clearly thinks they are undervalued.
  5. Heads up to anyone that wants to play futures that its worth checking the prediction markets in addition to sports books. For the most part in the US that means Kalshi, although Polymarket might start taking US customers soon. Kalshi will take credit cards, bank transfers etc, so its simple to get money in and out. There are several possible advantages of the prediction markets: 1.) you can usually find better odds than on sports books as they arent making juice the same way. 2.) each "bet" is a season long contract that remains open until resolution. This means you can sell you action at any point in the season (or game) or add more if the odds get better and you still like the end result. 3.) For every yes side, there is a no side, meaning you can explicitly bet that a team wont win the national title for example. the odds wont be great now, because nobody is a big favorite, but it can be a good hedging tool later in the season. You also may have more options on futures bets like win totals. To take Torn ACL's example of season wins, right now they have about 6 different win bets for every team (6.5, 8.5. 10.5 etc...) as well as bets for the exact number of wins etc... The way these markets works is that you buy contracts at any value between 1 and 99 cents. All contracts resolve to either $0 (no) or $1 (yes) at the end of the contract. So for instance if you buy 100 contracts at 10 cents, and that bet is successful, the payout is $100, so its the same thing as +900 odds. I created a few functions in excel to calculate ML odds to Pred market, payouts, etc... but its not rocket surgery. The other reason to consider the prediction markets is for in game betting. Here is an example of how much better the odds are on Kalshi for a random baseball game going on right now (philly vs wash): My sports book currently has: Philly -424, wash +297, Kalshi has it at Philly.78 (same as -354), wash .23(same as +334). So the odds are better on both sides of that bet. The bigger the underdog the more pronounced the payoff advantage will be on Kalshi. Its a great hedging tool. For specific game betting, they only offer winners (no spreads, or totals) but the odds are almost always better. And again, you can sell at anytime during the game. Right now the odds on college football games are a bit inflated because they are still weeks away, but usually at game time or during the games the total of yes bet + no bet will be around $1.01. Last week I bought Scheffler when he briefly dipped down to .10 in the golf tournament. When he later got above .50, I sold half my contracts meaning I made money, even though he didnt win the tournament If anyone wants to give it a shot, here's a referral code tied to my account. kalshi.com/sign-up/?referral=c6aa1d10-7826-47cc-ad3b-d827cb315c4a If you use that link, deposit money and buy 100 contracts of some event, we each get credited with $10. Not a lot, but it beats a kick in the dick.
  6. The average return of the S&P since its inception is now around 10%. I presume people concerned with managing 500M-1B probably employ a bit more sophisticated approach to managing a nest egg of that size.
  7. This one is too good for just a .gif that ends before you see that dude wobble around in the spirit world. His kids are probably still concussed thanks to Vasher
  8. David Booth dropping another $300M on KU. https://www.espn.com.au/college-sports/story/_/id/45963661/kansas-target-football-upgrades-new-revenue-300m-gift
  9. You cant bet against your son with prop bets if he's not on the field. I believe this is whats known as priming the pump
  10. Brent Venables: Mateer's venmo transaction list is sitting on my desk right now for review. Dads openly bragging about Arch deep-dickin' their own daughters is the definition of a superstar
  11. This man's middle name is "shenanigans."
  12. Another "first" for Texas. I'm going to assume that there arent too many times when the #1 team in the country opens the season on the road vs the #2/3 team. If they're gonna offer me better than 1-1 odds to watch Texas cockslap Ryan Day, sign me the fuck up.
  13. HEB has decent pizzas and it seems that more often than not, they always have at least one variety that has coupons out that make it pretty fucking cheap. Last time I cruised down the frozen fatass aisle, you could buy one of these: And get a free pint of gelato. This shit is pretty damn good if you haven't tried it. And the flatbread turned out pretty good once I doctored it up with some fresh jalapeno and mounds of grated parmesan . Since I knew damn well I was gonna house both of those that evening, I thought the fresh veggies added a healthful twist.
  14. And he's a chinet man, so you know he can appreciate the best the world has to offer.
  15. nobody cares derka. Not one fucking person here cares that you feel slighted. Not in the least. This isnt a board about you. Go ahead and produce any evidence that I talked shit to you about QE one time. It doesnt exist. But now we all get to watch you sling shit for the next 4 pages.
  16. The only explanation I have is his mom is out there fucking GM's Yet again, advantage aggy.
  17. He's gonna do it again. Fuck up another thread. He lives for this shit.
  18. The thing that was always most maddening to me about Quinn is that he was basically the same QB at the end of 2025 that he was at the beginning of 2023. Surprisingly little improvement other than losing the mullet. In his first year he looked great at times (Alabama before injury, OU) and looked like dogshit at times. Fast forward to his third year and its the same thing. Look at the stats of some of the other QBs drafted (Ward, Dart, Sanders) and note that their stats show improvement year after year. Quinn actually regressed statistically last year. I don't know if that's an indictment on QE, Sark/staff, or both. If we see steady improvement out of Arch, I'll guess we know.
  19. fucking ugly performance in his debut when you toss in the fumble (two??)
  20. I had the same thought. Didnt hate the guy, but ready to see what Sark can do with higher upside.
  21. As a broncos fan, I had the game on in the background the entire time and yeah, Stidham played like a maniac. Love having all the Texas guys on the squad and Payton carried three QB's last year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Sam stick around. It's the first year in many that I don't fully expect us to suck ass. Nix played surprisingly well last year especially the second half...
  22. Florida might be a stretch due to his time at FSU, but I could see him at Auburn if Freeze continues to shit the bed. They aren't opposed to the occasional questionable hire.
  23. Sam coming in for the Broncos. Start of 4th qtr
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