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Blotto

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Blotto

  1. Welp, this one caught me by surprise. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/us/montana-search-suspect-anaconda-bar-shooting.html I was in this shithole bar last September killing time before checking into a cabin I rented on nearby Lake Georgetown for the weekend. Much like this shooting, I was in there on Friday around noon. I ended up knocking back a few beers with a retired Vietnam vet who had spent his whole life in the area, and he gave me the lowdown on the are... cool dude. He was the only person in the joint other than the haggard bartender and the owner who was already drunk at that time. I looked up the photos of those killed and it doesn't seem to be the people I met. Still weird to see this story about one of the tiniest random dive bars I've spent time in the last 20 years. Shit happens everywhere I guess.
  2. I touched on this in an earlier post in this thread, but I cant get it to embed, so I'll copy it...
  3. That's the least pudgy, annoyingly punchable-face looking photo of Smart I can recall seeing. Probably an assistant coach falsely labeled as Smart.
  4. They should lean it to it like the NHL does with hats in the rink after a hat trick. Make three layups in a row and let the dildos fly.
  5. Complaining about Oldman's portrayal of Lamb? That's a thing? Anyways, I saw this earlier and hopefully it doesn't affect the quality of writing too badly.
  6. Freeze gonna Freeze...... https://archive.ph/2iVRm
  7. Best in pro sports. You immediately know who you are watching, and somehow every combination of helmets, jerseys, and pants looks good.
  8. that last sentence is perfection. Clickety-clack m'fers
  9. When I found out it was really only like 3 lbs a week, I felt stupid.
  10. https://www.espn.com/wnba/story/_/id/45869489/fever-sophie-cunningham-caitlin-clark-critics-dumb-f lulz. Tell em Sophie.
  11. I'll tell you what.... https://www.statesman.com/story/business/2025/07/29/alamo-beer-has-hiccup-in-getting-king-of-the-hill-themed-brew-into-stores/85422650007/ If they can unfuck their distribution, perhaps it will be on the shelves in time for the first episode of the series relaunch. Hopefully its worth a shit, but I cant recall having any of their beers, which is odd since its brewed not too far away. Anyone familiar with their work?
  12. Why even have laws for the rich and quasi famous celebs anyway, right? Paying taxes on business revenue,etc is for the poors.
  13. Well, judging by the number of billionaires queuing up to nuzzle Trumps cock and balls, I'd say the billionaire class will take care of that issue for the dems.
  14. yeah.... that didnt happen And while those schedules aren't spectacular, at least the bad teams were mostly ranked in the 200's. Last year, there were a ton of complete shit teams ranked in the 300's. Those games aren't remotely competitive as our best player will probably make more in NIL than the entire roster of some of these cupcakes. I doubt the team gains much from those ass beatings. They probably get more out of practice.
  15. Its russia. Can we be sure thats not how it always looks?
  16. Depends on who it fell out of. [Announcer] oh no!....oh no! [/Announcer]
  17. make that 52 safety lapses, then.
  18. That dude has been looking out for #1 and vigorously huffing his own farts since he was at FSU...thats just who he is. But he usually outperforms expectations, and cfb is absolutely a more compelling product with him involved. Having his medical team around for this presser ranks far, far down the list of complaints about Deion. Hope the dude sticks around for awhile. TBH, I wouldnt hate a game in boulder some fall.
  19. Yeah, timing on entry points surely affects the comparative returns on MSTY vs MSTR, but my suspicion is that on average MSTR performs better than MSTY over most time frames. If however I choose the 2024 high for MSTR (11/20/24) as the start date of a comparison through today, than the MSTY edges out the return of MSTR. And if you look at the worst performing period of MSTR (11/20/24-04/08/25), MSTY also performs better So small sample size, but it appears that when the underlying is moving bigly, and IV spikes, the options selling ETF performs better than the underlying. In periods of normal low volatility, the underlying will probably always performs better. Which makes sense because the options premiums the ETFs can capture are lower. Ive been trying to mess around with ChatGPT more to automate shit, so I spent a bit of time this afternoon building a model that allows me to dump price data, dividend data, volatility etc... and have it compare returns assuming dividend reinvestment. Now I can dump in data from a lot more of the options selling ETFs to see what shakes out. Is there an IV sweet spot for the underlying that starts to throw the advantage towards the options selling ETFs? Its really more just an exercise to practice using AI and I'm not expecting to learn much more than higher IV = better performance on the ETFs.
  20. Stupid question time on the concept of these option income ETFs. While I'm nominally familiar with MSTY, I haven't really done a deep dive but what am I missing? It appears to me that you would be better off just investing in MSTR, or at least that has been the case since the inception of MSTY... While the chart above doesn't specifically indicate whether it is showing MSTY dividend reinvestment, I believe it does as I found a separate charting tool that specifically claims to factor in dividend reinvestment, and it provides very similar returns for $10K invested starting 2/22/24. I understand that one major difference between the two investments is the monthly income generation that MSTY provides and MSTR does not (assuming you dont take profits by selling some). But it seems a strategy of holding MSTR and selling after a year would provide far better returns, especially when you consider that you will be paying tax on your MSTY dividend payouts according to your tax rate, rather than lower long-term capital gains rate on MSTR if you hold a year. I spot checked a couple of other ETFs (TSLY/TSLA, NVDY/NVDA) and in both cases the underlying outperformed the ETF fairly significantly. Is the theory that these option income ETFs will out perform the underlying stock in periods of down years? Here's the sites I used to generate the returns https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/MSTY/MSTR https://totalrealreturns.com/s/MSTY,MSTR
  21. Merck's Keytruda is the world's top selling pharmaceutical with sales of $30B/yr (up 20% in 2024 alone). The patent protection on that drug expires in 2028, so Merck will be looking for ways to soften the financial impact. If Anktiva were found to be effective in a wide range of cancer treatments, my guess is there would be no shortage of suitors to buy IBRX or possibly partner to scale up the commercialization efforts. There is too much money to made in cancer treatments to allow IBRX to wither on the vine for years if (a big IF) Anktiva is found to dramatically improve cancer treatments across multiple indications.
  22. I presume that their torrenting/seeding efforts extended far beyond porn and included movies, TV shoes, music videos, etc... If thats the case, we can be sure Meta will be held accountable, correct? Or maybe the government will do mark a solid, and just ask nicely that they stop doing illegal shit.
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