Interesting write up from a couple of days ago.
"THE GULF: Is currently undergoing a "marine heatwave" where ocean surface temps have spiked.
The Gulf averaged together is now back to near record highs for the time of year. I know it's in degrees Celsius but temperatures are up to 6 degrees above avg.
This means two things. If it holds into May, June, July, given a transition to a "ENSO Neutral" phase, we could have a lot of 'homegrown, but weaker' tropical systems or hurricanes that form close to land very early in the hurricane season this year.
Also, for the back half of tornado season (which has already been wildly active in KY/TN/MO) -- this means an enormously high surge of surface based moisture for tornado outbreaks.
This Gulf anomaly probably had a big (not all, but big) hand in the significant rain and flooding last week.
So, two things to watch. Enhanced tornado setups in the Plains, Gulf Coast, and Heartland end of April and May -- and a potential early start to hurricane season with weaker 'near shore forming' systems in late May/June/early July."