First off, no one is panicking. I want us in the CFP, but I realize that window is closing and we are probablyheaded to the Cotton Bowl (which is still good for this season but would be disappointing overall)
While something being plausible means it’s believable, it sometimes doesn’t account for how probable it is. You (and others) keep confusing probability and possibility. Your first scenarios, yes, it is possible some (if not all) of that happens. Based on the season so far, the probability is low that they happen but still greater than 0%.
The only path (so far) that I see is Florida State losing to Louisville in the ACC title game. I just do not think they lose to Miami and the line is FSU -15 (although it’s possible, technically). It’s possible UF beats them as that game is in Gainesville and they would love nothing more than to ruin FSU’s dream season. So I agree with you that FSU losing along the way is probably our #1 bet both in terms of possibility and probability.
Oregon—the only game I see them losing is Oregon State, but that game is at Oregon. Now, Wershington plays at Oregon State and that might be something to watch. I can see something where OSU plays out of their mind because they are being left behind; however, with what Wershington did to USC last night at USC makes me wonder if they are hitting their stride at the right time.
Let’s be clear—Alabama isn’t losing to Kentucky or Auburn. Auburn is worse than aggy. I guess with that rivalry you *can* say Auburn would love nothing more than to ruin Alabama’s season. And Alabama will have the SEC West rapped up way before then. Of your scenarios, that might be #2 and not #3.
We just need to keep winning and see what happens. What makes me angry about the CFP (always has) is it’s so, so subjective. The phrase “eye test” makes me cringe because that is the most subjective thing ever.
TLDR: Yes, it’s possible for everything to work out but the probability of Texas getting to the CFP gets lower every weekend as long as those other teams keep winning.