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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 58 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Can’t ignore the enablers, imo. The shitpiles in Congress like McConnell or Graham. Or Any republican that has campaigned on trumps talking points and rhetoric, which is almost all of them. 

    Again, we are only talking top of the ticket. The rest are on a case by case basis, as it has always been with me. I'm not going to blindly vote for either party. People like me split our tickets all the time - but I will say it will have a lot more Democrats this time than Republicans and that's a first.

    • Like 1
  2. 58 minutes ago, thepop said:

     

    The 2008 was close until September 15th of that year. 

    And people forget about how inevitable Hillary was believed to be until Trump actually beat her. The pundits and press really underestimated how disliked she was. That and trash polling that oversampled Democrats and misrepresented her support throughout the election cycle. I hope they all learned their lessons and we have a better picture this year.

    • Like 1
  3. 3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

    I love this, but I will believe it when I see it 

     Yeah looking at the numbers I think the sample is borked. it appears to have too many college educated voters in the sample - only 27% of Texans even have a college degree. I don't know how they came up with Trump +1 when he gets 2/3rds of the vote from the non-college educated whites crowd.

  4. 49 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

     

    I don't fucking care who the Republicans run.  I don't care who the Democrats run.  The Never Trumpers are never going back.  They are going to be as Democratic as African Americans for a generation.

    I don't think the typical "Never Trump" voter who has been Republican for a long time is going to be a reliable Democratic voter. These people are generally conservative and the Democrats are moving left as fast as the Republicans have tacked to the right. 

    Let me ask you this - if Trump were to decide he didn't want to lose an election and step aside, and Pence became the nominee instead, how do you think most Republican "Never Trumpers" would vote?

    Edited to add - I think you are assuming that these will be the same for the Democrats as the "Reagan Democrats" were to the Republicans, but those people now make up the Republican base. If the same were to occur to the Democrats then the future Democratic party will look at lot different than it does today, and conversely the Republican party as well. I don't think the current establishment Democratic leadership will allow that to happen. 

  5. 12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    Why not.  He has a 90% approval rating with the GOP.  And look at the senators--they're all afraid to cross him.  And they're right not to--because he could endorse a primary opponent and toss them right out of their jobs.

    What's the scenario in which he doesn't get the nomination in 2024?  That he doesn't run?  Why would you possibly believe that?

    Or is it that he runs and is defeated?  And if you think that's going to happen, then you must think something within the GOP is going to radically change after November.

    Don't be fooled by Republicans publicly "falling in line". There's plenty of Republican leaders who are ready to jump if he loses re-election in November. I think it's plausible he tries to run again, but unlikely. He's always wanted to be president and now that he's "checked the box" he can always just say Washington was unfixable or some other bullshit. 

    Anyway this is a discussion for another thread. 

     

    • Like 1
  6. 22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

    I really find it perplexing how anybody can predict that anybody other than Donald Trump will be the GOP's nominee for President in 2024.  I mean, exactly what evidence are you looking at that makes you think (1) he won't run, and (2) when he runs, he wouldn't win the primary?

    I don't get this take at all. If Trump loses he's done. He's not going to pull a Grover Cleveland.

  7. 1 hour ago, Braff Zacklin said:

    I suppose there are many topics that are inherently political. Perhaps a better term would be partisan.

    Please keep the partisan bullshit in the CR. It is a beating, as anytime a cloak roomer crosses that line in DT, his or her opposite-minded counterpart shows up to point out what a piece of shit that cloak roomer is, and how much like Hitler he or she is, and then the original cloak roomer's buddies come to his or her defense to declare what a piece of shit the other person is and how they are the ones like Hitler, yada yada yada.

    And if the poo flinging weren't enough, the cloak roomers whine all the fucking time. Too many of them feel like what they believe, what they have to say is SO important, that it MUST BE SEEN AND READ by all of Surly.

    I'm sure there are exceptions, but for too many cloak roomers, this seems to be the norm.

    This is the correct answer. It's not politics per se, but the blind partisanship that needs to stay in the CR. 

    • Like 2
  8. 48 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

    100%.

    that said, it's a census year, so shouldn't there be some shuffling with reps and electoral votes (moving forward, obviously, starting in 22/24)?  i'm not completely familiar with that process but i would assume someone can fill us in.  i'm assuming it becomes slightly more representative with each passing year, but i know the small, rural states will always be a problem.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population#State_rankings

    2880px-%25_Population_Chnge_by_state_fro

    https://www.270towin.com/news/2019/12/30/projected-2024-electoral-map-based-on-new-census-population-data_925.html

    2019_electoral_vote_change_v21.png

     

  9. 2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

    Yeah that's the explanation given in the ESPN story. That, and versatility - being able to kick on the run, etc. Fair point. There's a lot of US kicking camps and stuff out there these days, but probably not a ton of kids seriously training as punters when they're like, 10 years old.

    Not only that, but they have to learn to kick accurately on the run as kicking is a way to pass and obtain a free kick from the spot of the catch (called a "mark" for those who don't know, pronounced "maahk in aussie of course). Explains why Dicko was able to do what he was able to do once he got the hang of it. 

  10. 35 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

     

    I agree with this, especially the short term read.

     

    Why does everyone take a second wave for granted.  I know that a bunch of people point to Spanish Flu, but the influenza virus has certain characteristics that make it highly seasonal. Why should we assume that a second wave will happen.  I think that we should be prepared for the possibility, but it seems like this is almost taken as gospel at this point. 

    The assumption is that it's spread the same way as the cold and flu, so in the winter it will spread more easily: https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/qa/why-is-the-flu-more-common-in-the-winter

    Also, the Spanish Flu scenario is what worries everyone - the virus had mutated into a more deadly strain and was spread by soldiers in close quarters during World War I. https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

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