Jump to content

TKthunder2

Burnt Ends
  • Posts

    3931
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by TKthunder2

  1. Agree it won’t be tit for tat. I doubt the SEC grows past 22 (more on that # later) unless there is some other significant factors (like leaving the NCAA and holding a P2 or P5 or FBS only bball tournament) that don’t currently exist. But I still disagree with you around FSU. If the Big Ten adds FSU and Miami then they have a very significant presence in the state and that will hurt the SEC. They may not be able to get consensus on adding Miami from the SEC members or from Miami themselves who may prefer the Big Ten (think back to how the Big East was for Miami in their hayday, not exactly regional for them and the MLB Miami/TB playing with NY/DC it NFL Miami playing with NY/NE/Buffalo). Still, in order to secure Florida as an SEC state first and foremost the SEC should add FSU. If the Big Ten gets both Miami/FSU bringing USC, Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, and maybe even Notre Dame into town regularly and that will affect recruiting for both FSU/Miami, but also for the B1G schools I listed above as well. The recruiting conversation is about keeping the Big Ten schools out of Florida, not keeping FSU/Miami contained (as that’s not really realistic). Those schools will always be able to recruit based on simple geography. Miami is the odd duck and I can 100% see them going to the Big Ten as they are not a great cultural fit for the SEC which is #1 flagship U and #2 State type schools with big campus stadiums with enrollments outside of Vandy. Plus the whole further North you go the further South you are, works both ways. I also disagree about SEC schools would not be excited to play Clemson and FSU. Maybe it’s just outside your area but Clemson has a lot of history with the SEC schools and FSU is a regular OOC opponent. FSU besides playing UF annually (which means it would free up an OOC game for both) has played Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Oklahoma, and LSU on its OOC slate. Clemson besides playing SC annually and UGA AND Auburn semi regularly has played LSU, aggy, Oklahoma and Alabama. So the only schools I see not being excited about playing FSU/Clemson is the weaker SEC schools like Missouri, Vandy, or Mississippi State. Adding FSU and Clemson with not dilute the conference. They’d join the top 8 schools that others would be excited to play. Like you said, right now for Texas outside our obvious rivals we’d play UF/UGA/Tenn or LSU/Aub/Bama any given year if we added a 3rd rotation of FSU/Clemson/?OleMiss? you’re not going to see a drop off when you balance them out: Bama/UF/OleMiss, LSU/Clemson/Tenn, UGA/FSU/Aub. Going to 22 actually would be a little easier as they can keep the 3-6-6 model but just add another 6 model and rotate through everyone every 3 years instead of every 2. I’d personally prefer the SEC stay at 16 for a long while but if the ACC is going to blow up, they’d be dumb to sit by and let everyone go North and ignore the long game.
  2. If the SEC participates in any kind of end game scenario it’s 100% around UVA/UNC and FSU/Clemson. That gets them to 20 and unless they are doing a full split of NCAA scenario (which will put a larger premium on successful basketball schools like Kansas and Duke) or they and ESPN (who is will to pay) decide they need to protect their market from the B1G (Miami, GT, NCSU, VT) it just doesn’t make financial sense expanding just to expand. The Big Ten in the other hand has 3 national over the air broadcast partners and partially owns their own network which means they directly benefit from carriage fees and going coast to coast. Adding teams and markets of a lesser stature don’t hurt them as long as they have a way to protect and insulate their big programs from overloading on riffraff. As proven over the years, Ohio State/Michigan versus anybody in the Big Ten conference is big enough to warrant a national broadcast. Notre Dame would also be at that level were they to join. Penn St/USC are close but just a step below. Penn St vs Rutgers didn’t get put in FOX Big Noon, but Michigan vs Rutgers did for example. Here’s a list of the top DMA’s outside of the new Big Ten with realistic expansion candidates. I omitted Texas markets as they like can’t truly break into that market without UT/aggy or going all in adding Tech/TCU/UH which seems unlikely. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#6) Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (#20) *Cal/Stanford Atlanta (#7) *Georgia Tech Boston (Manchester) (#10) *Boston College Phoenix (Prescott) (#11) *AZ/ASU Seattle-Tacoma (#12) *UW Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) (#13) Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne (#17) Miami-Fort Lauderdale (#18) *Miami/FSU Denver (#16) *CU Portland, OR (#21) *UO Charlotte (#22) Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville) (#24) Greenville-Spartanburg-Asheville-Anderson (#35) *UNC/Duke/NCSU Salt Lake City (#30) *U of Utah Hartford & New Haven (#32) *UConn Kansas City (#34) *Jayhawks So the PAC10 schools are still just sitting there but since the SEC has said they are staying regional, there is not really a rush to add them because where are they going to go? But that’s 6 schools that can bring in 6 top 21 markets (and Utah). I know West Coast time zone and fan apathy have drawbacks, but by going national the Big Ten will not leave a top 10 market like SFO, an area of the country like the PNW, or an entire time zone like the Mountain time zone outside their footprint for too long. Look at every major professional sports league and know that’s how the Big Ten is now modeling it’s future. Other than the West, the Big Ten needs the South. Getting into Florida (3 top 20 markets), Atlanta (#7), and NC (3 top 40 markets) is very attractive. The SEC could try to proactively grab those schools to protect their territory but I find it unlikely they take all of Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, Duke, NCSU, UVA and VT just to keep the Big Ten out. So the Big Ten will get someone from the above list, the SEC/ESPN simply has to decide what it can deal with, which is taking the most powerful (FSU/Clemson) away and making sure they get the best flagships (UNC/UVA maybe Duke, and FSU to go along with UF to offset Miami) from any potentially shared markets. I also think it’s worth noting that Boston College, UConn, and Kansas are also fringe Big Ten candidates. BC for their top 10 market, academics and to add another enticing piece to help lure ND since Boston has the 3rd most Irish fans of any market only behind NYC, Chicago and even ahead of South Bend. Kansas/UConn from their basketball and top 40 markets. So I see a 20 team SEC looming with FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA and a huge 24 team Big Ten with UW, UO, Stanford, ND, VT, Duke, GT, Miami.
  3. Yeah, how could he forget Stanford? Am I right?
  4. Ziprecruiter is only good for two things. It allows people actually looking to hire to reach out to you with requiring that you apply better than most other sites not named LinkedIn, and you can quickly apply for 5 jobs in less than a minute to satisfy your unemployment requirements, which it also keeps a record of in case they ever audit you and ask for it. Other than that it’s not very good at actually placing applicants. Agree your network is 100x better than Ziprecruiter.
  5. A&M Kingsville aka TAMU-K fka Texas A&I plays DII in the Lone Star Conference Texas Southern is a HBU in Houston is DI FCS in the SWAC Trinity Valley Community College is in Athens (East Texas SW of Tyler) most famous for Cheerleading and a Netflix reality show following them. Baylor rapes and kills people in Waco Prairie View A&M is a HBU on the NW outskirts of the Houston market is DI in the SWAC Hardin Simmons is a Baptist school in Abilene that plays DIII Note: I think both TAMU-K and TVCC are claiming John Randle
  6. THIS I have kids, they loved it. For the first time ever they asked to go back and watch it again. Might go back tomorrow if they are good and clean their rooms. It’s entertaining just not great cinema but I didn’t go into it thinking I’d get the Godfather like some of the critics seemed to expect. I saw one review that said the critics are writing it off as a less of a movie and more fan service, where as the audience score is like “ITS AMAZING FAN SERVICE!” But Jack Black’s Bowser stole the show. I wouldn’t have expected some of the decisions they made with his character but it was perfect. Wife enjoyed how they portrayed Peach too, not the helpless damsel in distress, but not overshadowing the main character (that the studios often do when trying to comply with the #metoo movement). Also they ‘fixed’ Mario’s voice it seems from the early audio that was leaked. It worked enough and humanized him more and made the movie far more watchable in my opinion than if I had to listen to the thick cartoony Italian accent for 90 minutes straight. There are post credits scenes. One mid credits worth staying for and a very small clip at the end that not really worth it.
  7. Wow. Didn’t think that was the most likely outcome here.
  8. Waiting on jury. https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/daniel-perry-trial-24-hours-into-deliberations-no-verdict-yet-on-murder-trial/
  9. I see FSU/Clemson joining the SEC, it just seems too logical. While I could see the Big Ten making a play here, giving them two historical powers in the heart of the SEC won’t sit well with the conference or ESPN. But honestly the next major realignment battle will be over UNC and UVA. If the Big Ten gets those then I see them going further South and grabbing Miami and Georgia Tech and the city of Atlanta. Both are major city hubs for Big Ten alumni/fans and would have the Big Ten represented in every major city/market along the Eastern seaboard from NY to Miami (only really missing New England). But without UNC/UVA I don’t see them wanting to have both LA and Miami/Atlanta on virtual islands which is why I think they’d pivot and go after the West Coast.
  10. Let us not forget the Kansas–Nebraska Act of 1854 which setup Kansas to be a slave state. Jayhawks to the SEC confirmed!
  11. It would have been the best situation for all. Shame on all for their egos and hubris. Would have been a little cleaner if the PAC had just poached Tech, TCU, Okie St, and Kansas after UT/OU left and then could have picked up Iowa St, Kansas St, Houston, SDSU, whoever for after USC/UCLA left but this obviously doesn’t work out as logical in real time as it could have on paper.
  12. My point was a 10 team PAC10 versus a 16 team Big 12. I don’t see a scenario where the PAC10+? in any form, is regularly getting 2 bids. The Big 12 on the other hand, without UT/OU, may have done it multiple times if the expanded CFP was in place with TCU, Baylor, Okie St, K State, and even Iowa St…and that’s without including UCF, BYU, Houston, and BYU’s occasional success over the past decade. That was the basis of my 2 of 16 > 1 of 10. The SEC&B1G will likely pull in 3 bids regularly so it’s really not worth comparing to them.
  13. The CFP money isn’t going to come out as a lump sum anymore where the P5 conferences will get roughly the same money to divide. Both the Big Ten and SEC said it will be per school (so the 16 teams conferences will make more than the 10 team ones, but all schools in the P5+ND will make the same) with a major increase on getting bids and winning. The scenario wing thrown around out West where staying at 10 gets then them more money per school since they get same annual guaranteed money as the B1G/SEC (before factoring in performance) is not realistic. 1 bid divided by 10 will not be more beneficial than 2 bids divided by 16. The Big Ten and SEC will not allow that math, and anyone thinking that the PAC12 staying at 10 will outsmart them is hopelessly naive.
  14. Correct. The cop recommended against the arrest and said there was very strong evidence of self defense. So he was called by the defense. The exchange on the stand was in KXAN news last night (likely online somewhere).
  15. Pretty sure one of the Arizona presidents was out of the country until after April 15th and they said they’d meeting after he got back, so I highly doubt they’ll announce anything before then. Smells like BS.
  16. Trial about to end. https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/daniel-perry-murder-trial-almost-over-attorneys-prepare-for-closing-arguments/
  17. Good post, I knew all these metrics but constantly forget how the PAC’s hidden tier 3 boosts their overall stats. Still the numbers posted this morning were about fan engagement which is also higher for WSU. I generally agree with SDSU over WSU but the Big 12 feels like it already pulled in directional State U Florida and city U (times 2) so I don’t see a giant appeal taking another on “potential” like SDSU. I think the 4 corner schools are the obvious target, but even if Utah refuses to see the light right away, I’d still sit back and wait on #16 before offering SDSU, Fresno or Gonzaga. In addition to Utah, you’d still have and school like Oregon who could get tired waiting on their Big Ten invite waiting to join especially if it starts affecting their fb recruiting, or Cal who could get left out if they add the Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Notre Dame, possibly a deal to take all 5 (Stan, Cal, UW, UO, Utah) at the end of their next disappointing contract. All of those options are more appealing than SDSU in my opinion.
  18. More data showing that again, by the numbers, Wazzu over representing for the PAC12.
  19. I don’t think they have that refined of a big picture. FOX is pinching pennies right now and trying to decide what its priorities are. That is just not great for the PAC timing wise. They locked up the Big Ten, Big 12, MWC, and Big East and think that’s enough to compete with ESPN who has SEC, ACC, Big 12, American, Sun Belt, MAC…and the PAC12 isn’t going to shift that one way or another, though I assume adding money late kick options would be appealing especially if it’s discounted otherwise they’ll just reup with the MWC. They are also keeping their powder dry for bidding for a part of the new 12 team playoff (which will ‘own’ the Rose Bowl TV rights going forward). MLB 3rd tier rights are currently a catastrophe with the regional channels going broke. Fox owned them before, I don’t think it would be crazy to get back into that game. They own nothing in the NBA, but are starting to lean in on basketball with Big East, Big 12, and Big Ten…something to watch. They are still in on racing (both cars and horses) and soccer. They lost UFC and gained WWE and still have boxing. No golf but lots of less popular sports like rugby or lacrosse that can fill dead air. But for now they really just have OTA FOX, FS1, FS2, and BTN so you can see why they don’t feel like they need to go punch for punch with ESPN which has OTA ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, and SECN plus ESPNU, ACCN, and whatever the LHN turns into to fill with programming, not to mention it’s Watch ESPN/ESPN+/ESPN3/ESPNnow or whatever streaming service(s). A lot is changing right now, I think it’s difficult to see an end game other than FOX want to be a major player in NFL (2033), College football (B1G/B12 2030), MLB (2028) and likely will get involved with CFP (2025) and re-up with the Big East (2025). Beyond that I think they are sitting tight and trying to keep cash on hand, because if ESPN is discussing shedding properties, FOX could end up a really strong position (especially if they can turn FS1 into a real competitor for ESPN).
  20. Shooting someone over a prank? That’s fucked up. Weird takes in here, but unless the shooter was ‘pranked’ into thinking their life or someone else’s life was in danger, then they should go to jail for a long time. This shouldn’t be a controversial statement..
  21. TV numbers have WSU as the 4th or 5th in the most watched program in the PAC12-10. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-should-the-big-ten-expand-next-we-crunched-the-numbers/ In order (per 538): Oregon, Stanford/Utah, Washington/Washington St, Arizona State, Cal/Colorado, Arizona, Oregon State With San Diego State you’re betting on having local interest that one day could be in the top 50% of your league and pull in viewers, with Wazzu you have a proven team that already does that. Playing the biggest market game is dumb especially without a conference network that gives you carrier payout. It’s now about how many people actually watch your game, and in that WSU has the advantage. SDSU can catch up, but that’s taking a bet, not following the data.
  22. They’d wait on Utah or Oregon or Washington. I honestly think Washington State would be better than SDSU. They won’t. They’ll bitch and moan but if Colorado and Arizona leave Utah will jump ship too. They got ESPN (but not FOX) to agree to a pro rata increase for P5 expansion only. They’d have to negotiate with both ESPN and FOX to get SDSU. The target is the 4C schools, everything else is just noise. I’d be surprised if the B12 didn’t already have approval from FOX to add the four corner schools.
  23. I mean the PAC (with 12 teams that included the LA school eyeballs) most weeks had 1 game OTA on FOX/ABC and 2-3 games on ESPN/FS1 and 2-3 games on P12Net. Which was roughly 50% give or take week to week. With LA gone and FOX gone and no deal from CBS/NBC out there it was obvious they’d take the hit at the top and end up with 2 games on ESPN maybe 1-2 regular season games at best on ABC. With only 10 teams you’re talking 5 conference games (even if you add SDSU/SMU who no one watches so it only adds to the weak content) so 40% has always been the number in my mind. They want their top 2 games of the week on linear. But those are the only games Apple/Amazon want. Sure they’ll take the others but to sell subscriptions they want Oregon v Washington not Oregon St v Washington St. So again we’re back to taking money and going streaming, or taking exposure and losing money relative to your peers. Either way it’s just a bandaid until the next round of realignment where you lose your next biggest brands. FOX could pay $50m/yr to the Big12 for the 4C schools for that content, or piggyback with Apple for the PAC tier two games. Apple gets the game of the week and the worthless tier three trash content and FOX gets 2 games a week to put on FOX or FS1. The question is will that be more expensive or less expensive than just giving the Big 12 $50 million? The SEC (prior to UT/OU) got $300million/year for tier one for 14 teams for $21.5m/yr/per team. The Big 12 Now + gave the members (w/o Texas/OU) $24million/year or 3 million/yr/per school for their third tier rights and the ACCN payed out $40 (which is less than $3m/per) but they haven’t hit 100% distribution of the network due to startup costs. So if we assume the PAC12-2 could get $21 million a year/per team for tier one from Apple (assuming they are paying a premium to get them to stream) and $3 million/per for tier three still leaves a $7 million/per year/per school for $70 million total gap between the PAC12 versus the Big12 that they need tier 2 to fill. So for $20 million more than paying for the 4C to join the Big 12 FOX could get the 2nd/3rd best PAC games each week for FOX/FS1. Doesn’t sound like a great deal to me.
  24. Is my memory wrong, I thought they halted and canceled multiple cadet classes and many of those officers went elsewhere? When you already have a shortage (due to the cost of living) then you cancel/defer hiring for a time this is the only logical outcome. So “defunding the police” is/was part of the problem, even though it was only for a short time. If I’m not remembering correctly then feel free to correct me and call me an idiot.
×
×
  • Create New...