Jump to content

TKthunder2

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    4514
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by TKthunder2

  1. The problem is the PAC12 generally only has 1 single game worth a damn each week and that’s WITH USC/UCLA included. Both ESPN and Amazon want that game if they are going to be in business with the PAC12, but most don’t see it as all that valuable. Amazon could sub license an ACC game from ESPN for far cheaper than $30 million a year per school, but they want a “big” game each week. Excluding USCvUCLA (since that will be a Big Ten game) here was where the top PAC12 conference games landed starting week 13 back to week 4 (the * denote games that included USC or UCLA, BOLD denotes game was on FOX, Underlined denotes game was on ESPN) 8 on ABC,8,4,8*,9*,7*,4*,7*,9*,9 So ESPN had some PAC12 last year and only put 1 game on ABC, all other were in the ESPN late window. FOX had the best inventory but despite the huge advantage of being OTA they only landed 2 top 5 games (USC/Utah, UO/UW) and the others lucky enough to get on FOX ended up being the lowest rated OTA college football games of the week losing out to games on cable. So yeah, ESPN wants the top game of the PAC. Which means 2-3 times a year they’ll get a game worthy of prime time ABC but most of the time it will go to ESPN main in the late window. Getting 2 football games a week for ESPN is worth about $200 million a year or $20 million per school which is about what their rumored offer was. So just to recap: the PAC12’s benefit of the LA schools pumping up their numbers has transferred to the Big Ten, and the benefit of being OTA on FOX pumping up their numbers has fully transferred to the Big12 (since B1G negotiated exclusive OTA agreements with CBS/NBC), and their exclusive P5 late night window that boosted rating is being targeted by the Big12. With those advantages the PAC12 averages around the 8th best game on any given week. Take away those advantages and the PAC12 likely won’t have many top 10 games, much less top 5. I just don’t see how staying in the PAC12 is a good long term option, because the next contract will be worse than this one once you take away everything that was inflating the PAC12’s house of cards.
  2. True, but a SEC pro day wouldn’t hurt. Let’s anyone who had a bad showing at their local pro day get a second look by scout who were in attendance, and likely seen by more scouts overall simply because it’s more efficient. With the increase in non-NFL leagues this is also a great bang for your buck event for those types of leagues (XFL, USFL, CFL) which generally have less expandable income for scouting too. While I still expect school based pro days to continue, for the Big 12 and the non helmet schools of the SEC and Big Ten a conference based pro days is a great idea. I think lauding this conference event as TV inventory is dumb as it will not be widely watched so it’s basically just more filler and not a revenue driver. The genius of this event is recognizing that players for these 2nd/3rd class brands will not be given the benefit of the doubt (like similar players in the SEC/B1G) which is what we’ve complained about for years. The conference will benefit significantly by having more players in the NFL, from a respect/status standpoint and it also can help recruiting (not a ton but some). Removing barriers to making the Big 12 athletes successful is a great idea. Scouts are lazy and many Big 12 schools are not easy to get to, or don’t have a lot of great prospects that make the efforts worth wild. They rather visit the major helmet schools (Bama, Michigan, Clemson, USC) and fill out their practice squads and scout teams with UDFA from those programs that may be less deserving than one from K State simply because they never saw the K State player. Now with a Big 12 pro day, they have an easy visit to see these players live/in person which can pay dividends down the road and increase the status of the league in respect to the PAC/ACC as they solidify themselves into that #3 position.
  3. USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado are AAU LA schools are gone which raises that number to 30%. SDSU and SMU join that number jumps to more than 40%. They add 4 including Colorado State and that number goes to 50%. UW/UO have openly been talking/begging for a B1G invite. Odds that they are committed long term to the PAC12 is even on the board. And even Cal/Stanford have been rumored as B1G targets but long shots. So yeah hitch your wagon to WSU and OSU and the future MWC/AAC call ups.
  4. I think you underestimate the how much March Madness makes ($1.2b) and how much the P5 gets ($150m) and how much room basketball has to grow. You take every FBS conference and plus the Big East and have a little extra realignment (like Gonzaga joins PAC/MWC) and you’d likely get every top 11 seed in the tournament outside of 5 seed St Mary’s. If the SEC/B1G lead to way you can see them taking over management of the tournament, under the same organization as the CFP. Likely a very easy way to double their post season revenue that is too quick to be dismissed by people who simply too infatuated with the current tournament format. On Kansas and geography, the graphic linked below was about Mizzou, but it also shows that Kansas is no way shape or form “too distant” from the SEC. They’d better tie Oklahoma/Mizzou into the conference, solidify KC as a SEC city (OU/KU/MU > ISU/KSU/OSU), and bring a bonafide basketball blueblood into the conference. Yes football is poor but when UT/OU are added with no tagalongs, the SEC could be use a lackluster fb school to boost other areas and give the kid Teri SEC teams some fodder. https://www.columbiamissourian.com/sports/map-distance-from-columbia-to-sec-big-12-schools/image_d4ef5261-c9d0-5761-ac3d-0202a83fd568.html Again this is only under the scenario that the SEC is going to 24 (18 or 20 and Kansas likely isn’t in the conversation) but gaining 3 new SEC states (NC, VA, KA), 2 adding 2 FB powers (FSU, Clemson), claiming all 4 basketball bluebloods (UK, KU, UNC, Duke) and making pair of defensive plays (protecting markets/recruiting territory from the B1G in Miami and VT) seem logical to me. The only other realistic candidates remaining (assuming the SEC isn’t moving any further West than Texas and isn’t poaching B1G members or going after their footprint) are: Georgia Tech, NC State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. You can argue that they won’t go to 24 and that may be true, but IF they did, I think Kansas would make the cut.
  5. If the SEC goes to 24 then basketball will be a focus and FSU and Clemson are crucial as they’d give you 10 major brands that have BCS/CFP championships and will offset the other adds. Fb adds - FSU, Clemson Market/bb adds - UNC, UVA Bb adds - Kansas, Duke Wildcards - 2 (assuming Miami would make the cut if not already in the B1G to keep them out of Florida, and maybe VT for the same reason)
  6. Useless word vomit is useless. Talk about of rumors we already know (don’t even get all of them) and then discuss things like relegation?!? Pointless. A better article would be about potential NIL limitations/legislation, or about codifying a ‘SEC/B1G Super League’ (is it just expanding and cooperating with these two leagues or are Texas, Alabama, Michigan, Ohio St, USC, OU and ND getting together and forming a new league) and what antitrust concerns may be looming, do they only do this in football and do they also breakaway for basketball too?
  7. No one schedules two FCS teams (unless they have to due to last minute cancellations) because only 1 can count towards bowl eligibility. Yes the SEC TV deal renegotiation in 2025 will be for the additional inventory. The SEC is adding 8 conference games with UT/OU and if they go to 9 conference games that’s an additional 8 games which are replacing trash OOC games and significantly increasing their value. If the SEC bans FCS games and requires each team play a P5 opponent each years that would also increase the value of their deal. Also the SEC effectively gets to negotiate last so whatever the top deal is they can say they should get more.
  8. Since we’re talking about the PAC https://gostanford.com/news/2023/3/9/mens-tennis-beaten-by-longhorns.aspx
  9. Does immamac still require noobs to post their pay stubs? Or what that just an old blacklab rule on the shag?
  10. I agree with the exposure issue, but as you said, outside of the player awards the beauty pageant is over with a 12 team playoff. I disagree with the above. The B1G has 3 exclusive broadcast windows on FOX/CBS/NBC for 3 games and 3 games on BTN. That leaves 2 games (picks #4 & #5 of the week) to FS1. The #4 B1G game of the week is likely good to go on FS1 in the afternoon or primetime windows, game #5 not so much. A solid way to increase the value of game #5 is to utilize the dreaded Late Kick which increases the ratings for lesser content since there isn’t much competition. Getting a #5 game with USC/UCLA at home (when possible) and slotting it into the late window helps FOX/FS1 draw far more viewers than running the #5 game during afternoon/prime kicks. I think USC/UCLA are going to see why the Big Ten makes money soon. Yes Ohio State or Michigan or Pedo (the ones that were excluded from the failed streaming deal) AT USC will be Afternoon/Prime but how about when you guys host the bottom dwellers that make up the other half or your new conference? Rutgers Maryland Indiana Purdue Northwestern Illinois Minnesota Iowa Assuming you don’t pull one of these as a rival (and they aren’t ranked) you’re still looking at three home games a year (two of these plus a weak OOC game) automatically relegated to the Late window and UCLA will see the same. BUT that’s only 6 games a year in a 13 week season. Without adding UO/UW you’ll likely see occasional games against Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and possibly even the UCLA game pinned to that late window depending on how bad they are. Adding UW/UO give you 4-5 more games (since OOC play overlaps) which rounds out 10-11 games versus the dregs of the B1G before FS1 even gets to the Big12 (which likely pulls the 4corner schools) or B1G West Coast v B1G West Coast games. Taking these 2 schools will have a ripple effect which allows FS1 to increase the Late kick P5 candidates from 3 (USC/UCLA/BYU) to 9 which significantly decreases their demand on USC. So as is, I see USC playing in the Late window around 4 times per year regularly, with UO/UW that decreases to 3 and if they go full academia orgasm with Stanford/Cal too you’re probably looking at just 2 a year even if the BTN decides to add a Late window game with the additions since those would be regularly filled by the other West Coast teams.
  11. Noon- SEC/B12/ACC on ABC/ESPN, B1G on FOX 230/3- SEC on ABC, B12 on FOX, ACC on ESPN, B1G on CBS, and ND on NBC (6-7 times a season) Prime - SEC/ACC/B12 on ESPN/ABC, B12 on FOX (after the MLB ends), B1G on NBC Late - B12 on ESPN Unless they can convince NBC to carry a package of games on weekends when they don’t have ND home games, the PAC12 is basically signing up for a heavy load of late night games (which their fans bitch about for some stupid reason) and a very crowded Primetime on ABC/ESPN that already has 3 P5 conferences to chose from, and a single slot on ESPN where they have a 50/50 chance against the ACC. The Big 12 won. Unanimous decision. They have what appears to be a guaranteed spot on FOX at 230 for the 1st/2nd game of the week and opportunities on ABC/ESPN at noon and ABC/ESPN and some FOX at Prime Time. If the PAC gets similar or even slightly more money from a deal with NBC/Disney and a streamer like Amazon/Apple (a deal which would be amazing, all things considered) they won’t be better than the Big12. Even if they survive, the lack of exposure and interest from the losing the LA schools will cause them to wither and fade while the new Big 12 will surge.
  12. That’s just the store you stop at when you need and 1 to 2 items, not a full cart of shit. It’s just a real small store. Most of us in the area drive past it on our way to the Lakeline or Parmer/McNeil stores.
  13. I mean Saban is not wrong. They are the only school playing 3 opponents with national championships in the BCS/CFP era. That being said, Alabama benefited every year since Saban got their by playing a weak ass Tennessee game while the other helmet schools that won titles played each other LSU/UF UGA/Auburn. It’s pussyshit to benefit from that arrangement for over a decade and then now bitch about it because Tennessee is suddenly good for the first time ever since you’ve been there. At the end of the day this is all about money and I don’t think Bama is going to get out of playing LSU annually (which is what they are really trying to accomplish here).
  14. https://www.yahoo.com/now/college-football-attendance-rankings-2023-043844848.html Not game by game but this is an aggregate. https://www.yahoo.com/now/college-football-attendance-rankings-2023-043844848.html
  15. Years ago when going on a family vacation, my crazy aunt brought her huge ass purse (like big enough to fit a bowling ball plus some) and it got flagged for extra screening. They pulled out 2 pairs of scissors and 4 knives. She was just laughing like it was a funny game. We didn’t know if she did it intentionally or if she just always carried around shit like that in her bag. Once we got to the island she proclaimed that they missed two of her knives.
  16. Between Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas…I think they got it covered.
  17. People don’t like to watch the home team lose.
  18. Oregon State is basically K State without any football success and in a worse time zone. The state of Oregon is small, has very little recruiting or market value and the ducks basically dominate that market. Washington State is a little better, but their stadium is the smallest at 32k by 8k seats. In this instance, the Big 12 fans are right.
  19. Yes, if you’re adding from the G5 (or adding schools like Maryland and Rutgers) you are diluting your product. Full Stop. Big12/PAC12 merger dropping WVU and Baylor (or Oregon State) would have been the best scenario, but the timing just didn’t work out.
  20. Confusing premise is confusing. Big 12 pre TCU/WVU w/o UT/OU… Would have been the PAC12 adding Kansas, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, and TX Tech to get to 16. USC/UCLA bolt and then they add TCU and Houston.
  21. Obviously attendance is reported by the schools, but unless you have the fire marshals reporting the turnstiles at every game it’s the best we have. aggy reported 90k attended their UMass game that looked to barely have 20k, but the official statistics are the official statistics.
  22. Georgia Tech won their last national championship in 1990. Are you aware of this team that plays in College Station, TX ?????
  23. Rarely outside of big games but they average 45k attendance around 70% of capacity of the off campus facility. Again Miami only has 12k undergrads so they do pretty well if you compare them to private schools: Elite (60k): USC, ND Good (40k): Miami, TCU, Baylor, BYU Fair (30k): Stanford, Northwestern, Syracuse, Boston College Bad (20k): Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, SMU, Duke Real Bad (15k): Rice, Tulane, Liberty, Tulsa
  24. No, they will raid the MWC. NCAA tournament payout and Bowl contracts still make the entity of the PAC12 more valuable. They’ll grab the best 8-10 MWC/AAC schools and the MWC will be back filling with UTEP/NMSU and anyone from CUSA/FCS that will join…same as it ever was.
×
×
  • Create New...