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Hollywood

Certifiably Surly
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  1. Upsets Last Week 1-5 (.167) 3-3 (.500) This Season 3-15 (.167) 6-12 (.333) Kansas State by 1.72 over ARIZONA (1.5) - Friday, September 12. Kansas State had flipped to the consensus favorite by 1.5 on Wednesday which would remove this from the Upset pick category as the computer supports KSU as the favorite by 1.72. We will continue to follow the spread to see if it moves back in the other direction. Colorado by 2.36 over HOUSTON (-4.5) - Friday, September 12. Houston had moved as high as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday for this conference opener for both schools. So far, the Cougars are 2-0 ATS in 2025 and the Buffs are 1-1 which mirrors their actual game records. TULANE by 2.75 over Duke (-1.5) - Saturday, September 13. At the sportsbooks we largely follow, Tulane opened as a 2.5-point favorite but, by Wednesday, there was a wide mix of lines. Tulane was under water by 1.5 at FanDuel, while others such as BetMGM had the Green Wave by 1.5, and still others had this anywhere from a pick 'em to a half-point on one side or the other. Tulane was back to being favored (-1.5) on a Thursday morning check. We'll keep following it to see if a consensus is formed. One interesting aspect of this game is Duke QB Darian Mensah is a transfer from Tulane where he started all 13 games as a redshirt freshman year ago and threw for 2,723 yards with 22 TD's to 6 INT's while leading the Green Wave to a 9-4 record. Tulane went to the portal and picked up BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff who threw for 2,947 yards a year ago with 20 TD's but also had 12 INT's. Retzalff is more of a dual-threat who already has 177 yards rushing this season and 2 scores to go with 277 yards passing, 2 TD's and no INT's. For Duke, Mensah has a whopping 723 yards passing with TD's and 1 INT, but he threw the one INT and added two fumbles in last weekend's 45-19 thumping they were handed at home by Illinois as the Illini outscored the Blue Devils 31-6 in the second half. Tulane is 25-2 in its last 27 home games as the moneyline favorite. Duke is 5-6 straight-up on the road over the last two seasons after going 4-2 a year ago and 1-4 in 2023. TENNESSEE by 0.94 over Georgia (-4.5) - Saturday, September 13. The line was down a point to 3.5 on Wednesday. ESPN's College GameDay will be in Knoxville for this SEC showdown which Georgia has controlled with a current 8-game winning streak. The 'Dawgs are 0-2 ATS in 2025 while the Vols are 2-0, but both teams are 2-0 on the scoreboard. Middle Tennessee by 2.82 over NEVADA (-9.5) - Saturday, September 13. MTSU is ranked 126th by the computer and Nevada 127th out of 136 teams as we head into this intersectional game between the Mountain West's Wolf Pack and Conference USA's Blue Raiders. MTSU is 0-2 ATS in 2025 and Nevada is 1-1. This is the first meeting of these two schools on a 2025 and 2026 home-and-home contract. Vanderbilt by 0.41 over SOUTH CAROLINA (-4.5) - Saturday, September 13. South Carolina briefly opened as a 8.5-point favorite which quickly dropped to 6.5 and was sitting even lower at 4.5 on Wednesday. There is an early opponent head-to-head comparison on this one as South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24-11 in Atlanta on Labor Day weekend, after which Vanderbilt went to Blacksburg and dominated the second half in a 44-20 win. The Gamecocks are 1-1 ATS while the 'Dores are 2-0.
  2. Hold Your Horses Last Week 0-3 (.000) 2-1 (.667) This Season 2-3 (.400) 2-3 (.400 MIAMI, FL (-17.5) by 9.53 over South Florida - Saturday, September 13. The line has risen from a 16.5-point open to 17.5 on Wednesday. The computer margin has also risen, but still only has this game separated by 9.53 which is nearly 8 full points under the spread. USF is 2-0 vs top 25 teams while Miami followed up its 27-24 win at home over Notre Dame with a 45-3 win over FCS member Bethune-Cookman. Miami is 6-1 all-time in this series with the last 3 wins all by 28 points or more, but we believe this is a solid Bulls team that didn't get their past two wins by fluke. . VIRGINIA TECH (-6.5) by 5.57 over Old Dominion - Saturday, September 13. This game opened at 8.5. The Hokies were an 11.46-point computer preseason favorite and that's dropped to 5.71 points. We are 2-0 SU and ATS on playing the computer's VT picks, taking South Carolina over the spread and Vanderbilt as an outright upset. Virginia Tech has won the last two to lead the series 4-2, and the Hokies have a 3-0 record vs ODU at Lane Stadium.
  3. Easy Pickins Last Week 6-1 (.857) 5-2 (.714) This Season 9-2 (.818) 8-3 (.727) LLINOIS (-27.5) by 38.23 over Western Michigan - Saturday, September 13. The Illini have a 6-0 turnover ratio to WMU's +1. Illinois out-ranks the Broncos on offense 47-127 and 54-95 on defense. Our one concern about this game is that Western Michigan already played a Big Ten road game - at Michigan State - and only lost by 17, 23-6. Iowa State (-20.5) by 27.06 over ARKANSAS STATE - Saturday, September 13. It's always worth a few extra beads of sweat of worry when a Power Four team hits the road against a Group of Five program, but we're taking this one based on computer numbers that already show a significant upward trend for the Cyclones who are 3-0 and ranked 6th in the Congrove Computer Rankings while the Red Wolves (1-1) are ranked with 100th and lost 56-14 at Arkansas. LSU (-7.5) by 10.10 over Florida - Saturday, September 13. This game opened at 9.5 and was down to 7.5 on Wednesday which makes a cover call more palatable. Both teams at somewhat worrisome weekends with the Gators losing 18-16 at home to a solid South Florida team as a 17.5-point favorite, while LSU only managed a 23-6 home win over Louisiana Tech as a 36.5 favorite. In the end, both teams missed covering by 20. The Gators snapped a 5-game losing streak in the series with a 27-16 win in The Swamp last year, but the Tigers have won the last 3 at home and are 6-1 in the last 7. The series is tied over-all at 34-34-3. NOTRE DAME (-6.5) by 14.43 over Texas A&M - Saturday, September 13. The computer trend line puts the margin at 10.89 for the Irish in the first meeting in South Bend between these teams since 2000, and only the second all-time. The first three were all Cotton Bowl games from the 1987 through 1993 seasons. They met at College Station in 2001 and again last year. Notre Dame lost the first Cotton Bowl meeting and the 2001 away game so they are 4-2 over-all in the rarely played series. Clemson (-2.5) by 9.30 over GEORGIA TECH - Saturday, September 13. The computer spread on this game in the preseason was 13.25 and it's dropped to 9.30. The line opened as high as 9.5 at the sportsbooks and was down to 2.5 at FanDuel on Thursday morning while it was at 3 on most other sportsbooks. We wouldn't take this game above 2.5. Clemson has won 9 straight in the series, and 12 of 14 since losing the 2009 ACC Championship game to the Yellow Jackets, 39-34, in Tampa before it move to Charlotte the following year where it has resided every year since then.
  4. Upsets (Last Week: 1-9) San Diego State by 3.03 over WASHINGTON STATE (-1.5) - Saturday, September 6. The Cougars survived an upset bid at home by neighboring Idaho last week (13-10). The Aztecs opened at home against FCS Stony Brook (42-0). Wazzu was a 29-26 winner in last year's matchup with SDSU in San Diego, but HC Jake Dickert left for Wake Forest.and was replaced by Jimmy Rogers (South Dakota State), and QB John Mateer is now at Oklahoma. Mountain West teams have won 8 of the last 15 matchups with PAC-12 schools, but this is just the fourth all-time meeting of these two programs with the Cougars holding a 2-1 record. Vanderbilt by 8.99 over VIRGINIA TECH (-1.5) - Saturday, September 6. Vanderbilt won last year's meeting in Nashville 34-27. The Hokies do not play SEC teams that often, but have back-to-back SEC games to open 2025 with South Carolina in Atlanta this past Saturday (lost 24-11) and Vanderbilt at home this week. Virginia Tech is 18-39-1 all-time vs SEC teams, but 6-3 vs. Vanderbilt. The Hokies haven't had a home game against a SEC team since LSU in 2002 (26-8). Vandy last came to Blacksburg in 1989 and the Hokies won 18-0. Virginia Tech is 1-5 in its last 6 games dating back to last season. The Commodores are only 2-4 in their last 6 FBS games, and have won just 3 of their last 15 away games.
  5. As always take these for what they are worth - Easy Pickins ( Last week: 3 - 1 ATS) Navy (-20.5) by 34.13 over UAB - Saturday, September 6. Navy was a 52-7 winner at home over FCS member VMI. UAB gave up 42 points and 514 yards at home to FCS member Alabama State 52-42. Navy is 2-0 in series with wins of 41-18 last year at UAB and 31-6 in 2023 at home. SOUTHERN METHODIST (-2.5) by 5 over Baylor - Saturday, September 6. The Battle for the Iron Skillet is revived this week in Dallas for the first meeting since 2016. When it was paused, Baylor had won 13 in-a-row to take a 39-36-7 lead. SMU opened the 2025 season with a 42-13 win over FCS member East Texas A&M, formerly known as Teas A&M-Commerce. Baylor lost 38-24 at home to Auburn as just a 1.5-point dog.. North Carolina (-12.5) by 14.19 over CHARLOTTE - Saturday, September 6. UNC was a 38-20 winner last year at home in the first meeting between these schools. Charlotte was a 34-11 loser at Bank of American Stadium to App State as just as a 3.5-point dog while the computer had the Mountaineers by 4.37 for the SU and ATS win. UNC was a 48-14 loser at home to TCU as a 3.5-point dog but a 17.95-point dog by the computer for another SU and ATS win. Look for Bill Belichick and Company to make the adjustments necessary to get the 'W" against the 49ers, and beat the spread. SYRACUSE (-6.5) by 9.42 over UConn - Saturday, September 6. The 6.5-point spread is too inviting to skip. The Orange have won 5 straight over the Huskies by average of 23 points with none fewer than 7. Illinois (-2.5) by 5.54 over DUKE - Saturday, September 6. It's the first meeting between these schools since 1965 and they split the first two with the other game played in 1958. Duke usually plays a different Big Ten school from Illinois, having faced Northwestern 24 times since 1985 and owning a 14-10 record vs. the Wildcats with 6 straight wins since 2017. Illinois opened 2025 with a 52-3 home win over FCS Western Illinois that topped the spread by a half-point. Duke opened with a 45-17 win over FCS member Elon that was under the spread by 8.5 points. Memphis (-13.5) by 14.51 at GEORGIA STATE - Saturday, September 6. Memphis opened with a 45-10 win over Chattanooga to beat the 29.5-point spread. Ole Miss romped to a 63-7 win over Georgia State to easily cover the 32.5-point spread. Memphis won the only other meeting with ease, 59-22 at home in 2018. IOWA STATE (-2.5) by 12.73 over Iowa - Saturday, September 6. This pick is against the norms. Even though Iowa State has won 2 of the last 3 meetings in the Cy-Hawk rivalry, the Cyclones are 0-6 at home since a 2011 overtime win (44-41). Ironically, the Hawkeyes also had a 44-41 OT win at Iowa State in 2017. While we think the 12.73 point computer spread is nuts, topping the 2.5-point line is do-able. Hold your Horses (Last week: 0-2 ATS) Florida (-17.5) by 7.04 over South Florida - Saturday, September 6. Florida opened 2025 with a 55-0 win over Long Island University (LIU) which is ranked 79th in the FCS. USF was a 34-7 winner as a 6-point dog at home over then-No. 25 Boise State and the computer won ATS. For the Florida-USF series, the computer is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Florida is 3-0 vs. the Bulls with all 3 meetings since since 2010. The last came in 2022 when the Gators won 31-28 in Gainesville as a 24.5-point favorite, but just a 14.31-point computer pick (won SU and ATS). The computer also won SU and ATS in 2021 when UF was a 29-point favorite at USF and won by just 22 with the computer again going under the spread. In 2010, Florida was a 17-point favorite with the computer pick barely under the spread at 15.96, but the Gators won 38-14 for a win SU and a loss ATS
  6. Upset City: BAYLOR by 12.08 over Auburn (-2.5) - Friday, August 29. These teams haven't met since 1976. Baylor was 2-0-1 in regular season games from 1965-1976 while Auburn's only win came in the 1954 Gator Bowl. Baylor was 5-1 at home last week while Auburn as 1-3 on the road. The Tigers have won 8 straight season openers, though mostly against vastly inferior opposition. Auburn was 5-7 a year ago while the Bears went 8-5 with 6 straight victories to end the regular season.before a bowl loss to LSU. Baylor returns 80% of its starters including its major playmakers from a year ago..Auburn will start Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold at QB COLORADO by 1.14 over Georgia Tech (-3.50) - Friday August 29. What will Deion do without his son, Shedeur, at QB and Travis Hunter playing 100 snaps a game on both sides of the ball? How have Coach Prime's health issues effected readiness for this season? Does Brent Key have a Georgia Tech team that can be better than mediocre as the Jackets are just 18-16 under his watch. All we really know right now is that the Jackets are picked to go 6-6 against the No. 33 schedule by the Congrove Computer Rankings and the Buffs are projected to go 7-5 against the No. 23 schedule. SAM HOUSTON by 4.96 over Nevada-Las Vegas (-9.50) - Friday, August 29. Both teams actually have a game under their belt. UNLV won 38-31, but needed to rally to avert the upset to FCS member Idaho State at home. Sam Houston went to Western Kentucky and lost 41-24 after gaining a 24-20 lead in the opening minutes of the 3rd quarter. Phil Longo is the new HC with the Bearkats, replacing the ultra-successful KC Keeler who is now with Temple. Dan Mullen replaces Barry Odom who filled the opening at Purdue after lifting the Rebels to a cumulative 19-8 in two seasons. Ball State by 3.94 at PURDUE (-17.50) - Saturday, August 30. Both teams return very little experience and both have new head coaches and staffs. Mike Uremovich steps up from the FCS to the FBS after leading Butler to marks of 23-11 overall and 15-9 in the Patriot League. Barry Odom left UNLV after going 19-8 in two seasons. We'd be inclined to take the Big Ten team at home over the MAC team, and the FBS experience of Odom, even though he was just 25-25 in four seasons as the HC at Missouri (2016-2019) where 18 of those wins came against sub.-500 schools or FCS teams, and had just 2 wins vs. schools that finished better than 7-6. Toledo by 0.18 over KENTUCKY (-7.5) - Saturday, August 30. Kentucky was 4-8 last season while Toledo was a somewhat disappointing 8-5 after a 3-0 start that included a 41-17 win at Mississippi State. QB Tucker Gleason returns after throwing for 2,808 yards and 24 TD's with just 8 INT's, and adding 364 rushing and 7 scores. Their problem was that he was the second-leading rusher and was only 94 yards behind the leader, Connor Walendzak. Incarnate Word transfer Zach Calzada was finally named the starter by Mark Stoops for Kentucky's opener. Calzada began his collegiate career at Texas A&M in 2019, but injuries and the Covid season have made him one of those players who turned college into a career and he is now in his 7th and final season. After 3 seasons with the Aggies, he transferred to Auburn in 2022 and did not play due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He transferred to UIW and had 2 solid seasons, throwing for 6,342 yards with 54 TD's and 18 interceptions. Kentucky was next-to-last in the SEC on offense a year ago, and 10th on defense. Toledo was 6th on offense in the MAC and 5th on defense. Kentucky won the only other meeting of these teams in 2019 at home, 38-24. Texas by 0.57 over OHIO STATE (-2.5) - Saturday, August 30. Lee Corso's last appearance on ESPN GameDay where it he first donned Brutus as the headgear pick that started the tradition. Texas begins the 2025 season against the last team it played in the 2024 season, falling 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl semifinal College Football Playoff game. Arch is now the starting QB while Ohio State turns to Julian Sayin who first committed Alabama during the 2023 season. He saw no action with the Tide and threw all of 12 passes in four total relief appearances in 2024 for Ohio State, completing 5 for 84 yards with 1 TD passes that came against Western Michigan. These are the No. 1 and 2 teams in the Coaches' Poll and the FWAA-NFF Super 16 Poll with the Longhorns at the top of each. Texas-El Paso by 0.03 over UTAH STATE (-5.5) - Saturday, August 30. The No. 118 Miners visit the No. 127 Miners (Congrove Computer Rankings). If you're planning to wager on this one, our best advice might be to call 1-888-ADMIT-IT. Bronco Mendenhall fled New Mexico after one season, though a 5-7 season was fairly remarkable. Now he moves back to Utah where he spent 11 seasons coaching BYU where he was 99-43 before leaving for Virginia (36-38). He's a combined 41-45 at any school not named BYU. Scotty Walden was 3-9 in his first campaign with UTEP after leaving Austin Peay with a 26-14 record in four seasons. He's 37-29 all-time. Abilene Christian by 2.46 over Tulsa (-5.5) - Saturday, August 30. A rare pick for a FCS team to knock off a FBS school. This will be the debut of Tre Lamb as head coach with the Golden Hurricane after 1 season at ETSU (7-5) and 4 at Gardner-Webb (20-20). Tulsa is predicted to finish the season at No. 126 in the FBS Congrove Computer Rankings with a 2-10 record while ACU is picked to go 8-4 and rank 27 among FCS schools. The Wildcats made it to the second round of the FCS playoffs a year ago where they fell 51-31 at eventual national champion North Dakota State. Keith Patterson is 21-15 at the school in three seasons.
  7. Easy Pickins: Temple by (-2.5) by 5.15 over UMASS - Saturday, August 30. We are simply placing our faith in Temple's new head coach KC Keeler to end the Owl's 20-game road losing streak in his debut. Keeler has long track record of success..UMASS also has a new head coach in Joe Harasymiak whose only previous HC experience came at Maine (2016-2018) where he was 20-15 after a 10-4 final season before taking an assistant job at Minnesota. Notre Dame (-2.5) by 3.79 over MIAMI, FLA. - Sunday, August 31. This hardly has the same vibe as the 1988 clash of Catholics vs. Convicts, but it's an especially big game for Miami which will be starting Georgia transfer Carson Beck at QB while Notre Dame goes with CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr. He was a top recruit (ESPN no. 2 pocket passer) in the 2024 class, but sustained an injury to his throwing elbow last September. Still, he wasn't likely to see the field with Riley Leonard holding the starting job. Miami lost Cam Ward to the Tennessee Titans as the No. 1 over-all pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Notre Dame has an 18-8-1 lead in the series, but they haven't met since 2017 when Miami won 41-8 at home. South Carolina (-7.5) by 10.21 over Virginia Tech (Atlanta) - Sunday, August 31. Shane, the son of Virginia Tech legend Frank Beamer and the head coach many Virginia Tech fans wanted to succeed his dad, will lead the Gamecocks against the school Shane attended and later served as running backs coach. Expectations are that South Carolina has the better talent and depth at most positions. Texas Christian (-3.5) by 17.95 over NORTH CAROLINA - Monday, September 1 . The 17.95-point computer spread seems atrocious, but we're taking the invading Horned Frogs to spoil Bill Belichick's debut as HC of the Heels - unless Tom Brady sneaks onto campus. Not so fast: Tennessee (-13.5) by 3.07 over Syracuse (Atlanta) - Saturday, August 30. This one of two Aflac Kickoff Games in Atlanta with South Carolina taking on Virginia Tech the next day. The Vols are 3-0 in the series, but these teams haven't met since a 33-9 win Knoxville in 2001. Tennessee HC Josh Heupel just had his contract extended one year to 2030. He's 37-15 with the Vols and a stellar 65-23 over-all. Fran Brown guided the Orange to a 10-3 season in his debut as a HC with any school in 2024. Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli is Kyle McCord's successor at QB for Syracuse. Tennessee and UCLA swapped QB's as the Bruins took Nico Iamaleava and the Vols snatched Joey Aguilar who had transfred from App State to the Bruins after the Mountaineers fired Shawn Clark. Seems like the perfect example of the screwed up NIL/Transfer Portal system. Utah (-6.5) by 2.44 over UCLA - Saturday, August 30. As mentioned above with the Tennessee/UCLA QB swap, Nico Iamaleava is expected to start for the Bruins while New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier gets the nod for Utah.
  8. I'm in... let me know where to Venmo
  9. Texas - 23 tOSU - 17 Arch - 271
  10. Ohio State names second-year player Julian Sayin starting QB
  11. Based on the 247Sports Composite, Kreul would become the Sooners' highest-rated commit from the 2026 class. However, he recently took a tumble in Rivals' rankings, so according to that list, Kreul wouldn't even be OU's top defensive end behind Daniel Norman. "The Pat McAfee Show" starts at 11 a.m. CT and ends at 1 p.m. CT on ESPN. A specific time for Kreul's announcement hasn't been announced yet.
  12. Sounds like you need to visit the H-E-B Flavor Favorites suggestion box
  13. Bumping this up... I've run a basketball squares pool for MM for 7 years now and this year as I was paying out winners Venmo suspended my account and has now issued a permanent ban. Wondering if anyone has faced this before and if there is any recourse. Deal with Joe Schmo over support tickets is not going to yield the results I want.
  14. When the last grid fills and I ensure everyone has paid. I will then hit auto-generate. 12 squares to go...
  15. No better way to watch the tourney. The meaningless free throws at the end become the most exciting part!
  16. Down to 17 squares left if anyone wants to join. DM me if you questioning validity or anything. Hook 'em!
  17. Running a squares pool for the tourney. See Gambling Thread for details.
  18. 41 Squares left in the final grid
  19. I've been running a MM squares game for 7 years now. There are a number of surly folks that have participated each year. The first 2 grids sold out in less than an hour, so I've decided to run a 3rd grid this year. Details below if interested. Grid Location: www.runyourpool.com (You can use past year's credentials) Pool Direct link: https://www.runyourpool.com/p/j/11396ab92d1b4f059c5a4d6f994bee91 Pool ID: 441477 Select your squares and then pay me $100 per square to: Venmo: @mmhollywood Paypal: marshallmhill@gmail.com (select Friends and Family to avoid fee) Payouts: Round of 64: $100 per game (32 chances to win) Round of 32: $100 per game (16 chances to win) Sweet 16: $200 per game (8 chances to win) Elite 8: $300 per game (4 chances to win) Final 4: $600/Game (2 chances to win) Championship: $1100 minus fees (1 chance to win) *The “First Four” or “Play-in Games” will not count. Fun stuff to read below: 1. When you pick your squares, please pay immediately. Priority goes to those who have paid. I will open up non-paid squares once both grids are full. 2. When you pay, please make sure that I know which squares are yours as it relates to the payment and if your wife, grandmother, boyfriend is paying for your square, make sure I know. Easiest way to enter the Name you used in the square in the Venmo or Paypal field. 3. When you pick your squares and pay, please make sure the number jives: 1 = $100, 2 = $200 and so on. 4. If you pay by PayPal, please check "Friends and Family." Fees incurred will come from your winning square or be collected later.
  20. Snowing and frigid today followed up by 80 degree in 6 days. Typical woman (mother nature)
  21. This rain, mist, fog is not great for the kids going to school forecast tomorrow.
  22. Yeah, its shit, but as previous posted noted, it seems to be a 3rd party issue with whomever is mass producing it. Every batch is different it seems.
  23. Forecast says lightening in the area until about 6:15p today.
  24. We got a batch of TD Doña this week and it was oily and a dark green color. Trashed it immediately.
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