Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room. And by elephant, I mean the 9-3 Texas Longhorns. Texas is the only three-loss team that will get legitimate CFP consideration, and we’ll see just how close the Longhorns can get to the actual field. I’ve got them ranked just behind 11-1 BYU and ahead of 10-2 Miami. Texas would be two spots out from the field right now, if the committee matches my projection.
Texas has two wins over teams currently ranked in the committee’s top eight — and will have three wins over top-15 teams when we see the new rankings on Tuesday. That is an impressive collection of wins and the win over Vanderbilt should finally come into play, with the Longhorns jumping ahead of the Commodores due to the head-to-head result. I also think the committee will need to make a point not to penalize Texas too harshly for its seven-point loss to No. 1 Ohio State; that’s the closest anyone has played the Buckeyes all year. Obviously, the loss to 4-8 Florida is the bad loss dragging down the Texas resume, but I do think Steve Sarkisian is correct that a 10-2 record with that loss to the Gators is still probably good enough to be in the field. It’s very similar to Alabama’s bad loss to Florida State, if we’re being honest. But a third loss coming in a big, challenging nonconference game is the one the committee needs to address. I think it needs to treat that loss carefully — and kind of like half a loss, if that makes sense — because if Texas is unfairly penalized for going out and playing Ohio State it may discourage other schools from playing nonconference games like that in the future.
Ultimately, I think the three top-15 wins are enough to vault Texas up from No. 16 to No. 12. I’d wait and see what happens with BYU in the Big 12 championship game, but there’s definitely space for the Longhorns to slide up one more spot if the Cougars lose to Texas Tech again, particularly if it’s in lopsided fashion. Blowouts are likely part of the chaos that Texas will need to root for next weekend. I also think the committee would enjoy having another buffer team between Notre Dame and Miami to avoid having to deal with that Week 1 head-to-head result — which is why I’ve moved Texas ahead of the Hurricanes, even though Miami has done nothing wrong down the stretch.