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Hagbard Celine

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Everything posted by Hagbard Celine

  1. thank you @heso before tackling the hunt gauge vs. mystic elevation topics, we need to run to ground some variances in the geography data for the hunt gauge itself... i was told there would be no maths confirming you have the river elevation at 1723' at the gauge - what is that data source? i'm not sure it matters but for avoidance of doubt your latlong for the gauge is 202m ne of where the usgs topo says the gauge is: and note the topo shows an elevation of 1734' - what is that elevation for? the bridge? the river? the street view at the exact latlong for the gaging station is pretty much useless: there is a lot of variance in these elevations to the point that i'm questioning all of the data from all sources
  2. where is the hunt gauge located? does it measure both the south fork and the middle fork after they merge? or just one or the other? what is the elevation of the river at that gauge?
  3. what's the elevation of the river adjacent to the bubble inn?
  4. what's the elevation of the floor of the bubble inn?
  5. absolutely true and in the case of mystic, it's true because the bubble inn was appealed out of the floodway and the floodplain to make the map fit the insurance, not fit the geology also, this was not a 500-year event it wasn't a 100-year event this same level of flooding is a 10-15 year event - did you not see the wsj recap on past floods? 1931, 1953, iirc 7 total in the past 100 years
  6. negatory do we need to screencap topo maps for you?
  7. maybe they go to south bend and shock domer maybe they take care of business when they host florida but if they are not good enough to do both, then they will lose at pig and at corndog and be 4-4 at the end of october
  8. lead story on nbc right now
  9. norway had the hottest northern european females too bad they're out halftime 2 sweden 0 england england can't connect on anything in the final 3rd they look worse that the us women 2 years ago in new zealand
  10. what 'treatment' have we received? "as it felt like everyone was trying to prove the sec might" can someone translate that? "the way it has always been Texas comes in" the fuck
  11. 2' england turnover 1 sweden 0 england
  12. i posted this a week ago in cr after further review i can't see anything in it that is "against the rules" of dt so here you go: +++ How do the failed barriers fit together? The 2025 atrocity is neither a 2025 problem, nor a 2025 camp/citizen/tourist problem, nor a 2025 State/County/City government problem. It is instead a true example of an organizational accident with causes that existed for some time before the event. While no one person is responsible for the atrocity, the aggregate effect of actions and decisions by government officials and those they serve, over many years, created the physical conditions that made the atrocity possible. For the current State, County and Local governments, Guadalupe Flooding was, and is, an institution. And leaders do not change institutions unless there is a clearly perceived need for change. Guadalupe Flooding has grown from isolated events lost in institutional memories trapped in time into an atrocity with massive loss of life. From just a dozen deaths to hundreds. From the occasional high-water cleanup to a 100-year event every 10 years. For Guadalupe Flooding, the State, County and Local government’s role was to ensure that controls were in place so that if and when a flood occurred, the results would be non-consequential. But as Guadalupe Flooding has grown in frequency and intensity, the actions and decisions by government officials, taken or not taken, to prevent the flooding, have remained the same. The State of Texas, Kerr County and the City of Kerrville do not have a proactive risk management approach for Guadalupe Flooding. As a result, behavioral and safety problems never prompted past or present administrations to reassess Guadalupe Flooding risk to campers, citizens and tourists. The State of Texas, Kerr County and the City of Kerrville have a culture that instills bias and tunnel vision in decision making. No one in the current or past administrations ever interpreted ongoing behavioral problems as indications that Guadalupe Flooding risk mitigation was beyond the capabilities of past or present administrations. There was no appropriate plan, policy or program to mitigate the risk of Guadalupe Flooding. Instead, important design details were communicated through an oral tradition. As a result, Guadalupe Flooding risk mitigation was never undertaken the same way twice, even though the accepted basis for risk mitigation was “we have always done it this way, and it has always worked.” Thus, changes made in the absence of a sound risk mitigation strategy reduced critical margins of safety. Kerr County and City of Kerrville leaders were the sole design authority for Guadalupe Flooding risk mitigation. Yet they did not have the knowledge or skills necessary to identify and correct structural and institutional deficiencies of the type that caused the 2025 atrocity. Though its individual components are complex, the central message is clear. The atrocity was about physical failures driven by organizational failures, the origins of which span decades. No single factor caused the atrocity, just as no single change will ensure that a tragedy like this never happens again. https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/44760-4th-of-july-texas-flood/page/29/#comment-7195227
  13. you must have missed my cloning of the bonfire report
  14. more made-up maga bullshit vaccine mandates were tied to covid funding only at nursing homes and in schools
  15. once a day, we should be able to bestow triple-rep in the form of a mushroom cloud emoji the above post is my nuke of the day i have been trying so hard to abide by "the rules" in dt and tf has been making it very difficult thank you homercles
  16. /crazypills i need to stop checking on this thread
  17. seriously? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOo6OGDTEjY
  18. we're at the half in the first quarterfinal norge/italia nils excellent first half, worth watching uefa are running the quarters 1 per day, so 2pm the next 3 days
  19. when a given rainfall volume/time equation is met in a critical mass of rain gauges in the upstream watershed /science
  20. aggy barn klan aggy vanderbilt they are at risk of missing the cut if there is a breakaway from the ncaa just so you know what's coming
  21. my grandfather was 1/8th osage and he was fascinated by the advent of the weather channel in the 80s the indigenous native in me likes to watch the radar - whenever there is rain in texas i look at the radar on my phone every couple of hours overnight the 4 july storm was only 150 miles in diameter and just kept rotating with no forward movement in any direction the volume and velocity of this rain event should have been enough warning to any sentient texan regardless of education or politics - no radar needed
  22. it may have been reported earlier, apologies if so.... when sark was introduced for his media days address, the aggy fight song was playing
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