just revisited the history of the crimea
what a mess
skipping 1000 years of byzantine/rump successors and 300 years under the mongol horde and the ottomans......
the relevant history starts in 1774 when her hotness CTG took it.....
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In 1774, the Ottoman Empire was defeated by Catherine the Great. After two centuries of conflict, the Russian fleet had destroyed the Ottoman navy and the Russian army had inflicted heavy defeats on the Ottoman land forces. The ensuing Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca forced the Sublime Porte to recognize the Tatars of the Crimea as politically independent. Catherine the Great's incorporation of the Crimea in 1783 from the defeated Ottoman Empire into the Russian Empire increased Russia's power in the Black Sea area. The Crimea was the first Muslim territory to slip from the sultan's suzerainty. The Ottoman Empire's frontiers would gradually shrink, and Russia would proceed to push her frontier westwards to the Dniester. From 1853 to 1856, the strategic position of the peninsula in controlling the Black Sea meant that it was the site of the principal engagements of the Crimean War, where Russia lost to a French-led alliance.
During the Russian Civil War, Crimea changed hands many times and was where Wrangel's anti-Bolshevik White Army made their last stand in 1920, with tens of thousands of those who remained being murdered as part of the Red Terror. In 1921, the Crimean ASSR was created as an autonomous republic of the Russian SFSR. During World War II, Crimea was occupied by Germany until 1944. The ASSR was downgraded to an oblast within the Russian SFSR in 1945 following the ethnic cleansing of the Crimean Tatars by the Soviet regime, and in 1954, Crimea was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR as part of celebrations of the 300th anniversary of the Treaty of Pereyaslav, called the "reunification of Ukraine with Russia" in the USSR.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Republic of Crimea was formed in 1992, although the republic was abolished in 1995, with the Autonomous Republic of Crimea established firmly under Ukrainian authority and Sevastopol being administered as a city with special status. A 1997 treaty partitioned the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, ending the protracted Black Sea Fleet dispute and allowing Russia to continue basing its Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol with the lease extended in 2010. Crimea's status is disputed. In 2014, Crimea saw intense demonstrations against the removal of the Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych culminating in pro-Russian forces occupying strategic points in Crimea and the Republic of Crimea declared independence from Ukraine following a disputed referendum supporting reunification. Russia then formally annexed Crimea, although most countries recognise Crimea as part of Ukraine.
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tl/dr + the admiral's geopolitik:
1
the russians/soviets held it for 225 years then created this problem for themselves; the ukranians should never have surrendered their nukes in the 1994 budapest memorandum (NOT mentioned in the crimea history wiki) but at the time with the NPT it made sense - it was not just ukraine that disowned nukes - belarus and kazakhstan did as well
2
the west didn't pitch a fit in '15 when vlad took it back - so use this as the pivot - it's obama's and europe's fault - we should have bitched - we didn't - and it led to this - give z an out
3
give vlad an exit - he gets to "win" the war and keep what he had already stolen but has to gtfo of everything not the crimea
4
europe takes over half the defense
5
europe also has to get their ass in gear and get to zero reliance on vlad's pipelines - some big names rely on vlad for 100% of their natural gas - fix your own geopolitical problem - it's the only way to have any leverage with him until he expires - the pipelines are the reason europe has been kicking the can down the road - dem or pub we can't fix that for them
6
cheeto has already lost his "instant win" and with the rest of his global/domestic bitchassedness and palestine going nowhere a nobel medal is not in the cards - he should walk away and let the adults (macron) handle this