i posted some content in the cr thread which supports the hypothesis that this type of event on the guadalupe south fork is far more frequent than every 500 years
when bastrop was burning one of the 10-tankers was sitting on the runway in california for 18 hours waiting for perry to sign the paperwork for the aggy forest service to rent the plane
he was in new jersey (get a rope) campaigning for potus and houses burned for an extra day until he got back for his presser where he could sign the paperwork on tv
by the time the plane got to bergstrom the next day the fire was out - 500 more houses and 1000 head trapped at the river burned for his bullshit - aggy forest service paid $1.2M for the logistics to move the chem to bergstrom which was then flown back to cal unused
depending on where a stationary/meandering/rotating rain event is parked, you could have the same data downstream of the merge, and the north fork bone dry, or the south fork bone dry; every river that drains over the balcones has multiple tributaries that are potential deathtraps and every one of them needs gauging stations in locations like the one i posed above where it's clear a wall of water has come through an area every so often for thousands of years, but that would not be logical to dipshits using this tragedy as a reason to reduce government
the black/yellow polygon is the watershed that killed the kids and anyone at mystic - it's incredibly small, but as i highlighted above - it's not an unforseen never-happened-before event and having just read mystic dates to 1926 i have no doubt that institutional memory of this same kind of event was alive before ww2 but probably considered it to be a "1000-year" event; it would only be recorded in the archives of the kerrville newspaper(s) if at all
this cap of the topo is pretty much the entire drainage watershed of the south fork above mystic (marker B)
marker A is 6.5 miles southwest of mystic
it's dry as a bone for years at a time, but it clearly has a geologic history of being subject to the same event that happened thursday night:
the road at the top is 39
the area between the "river bed" and 39 is the floodplain from erosion events like thursday night
here is the streetview of the house on the right: https://maps.app.goo.gl/741GBi5MGCgvn9z18
the dry riverbed, erosion escarpment from water accelerating through the curve in the path (see: the bernoulli equation), and obvious floodplain clearly indicate this same event has transpired for thousands of years and i have no doubt that this exact same flood has happened at least twice since the settlement of kerr county in the 1840s, but the institutional memory expired before all of the camps were built post-war
the drainage watershed of the guadalupe south fork is relatively small but it obviously can become very powerful
i'm going to stop there because this line of inquiry is heading towards an indictment of good people in a time of tragedy
kerr county doesn't need a billion dollars to solve this problem forever
gauge stations every mile that send readings to a central station, and when there is any sudden increase in flow it trips the storm sirens
wait... sorry... they don't have any of that infrastructure that would cost less than a million dollars to build and 100k a year to maintain
they needed to have not been terminated in the first place
the regime is scared shitless about this tragedy - it's why they delayed the presser an hour so gnome could get there - they know their evil malfeasance and performative cruelty just cost 75 magats their lives including MAGAT cHiLdReN
aggy are going to be the canary on this one - if the regime comes up with talking points that satiate aggy they will escape - if they don't......
every river that drains off the balcones is at risk for this same event
it's not new
1987 guadalupe, crested at 29 feet, 10 kids died
1998 guadalupe, cuero was flooded although 2.5 miles from the river
2015 blanco, 13 dead
dude on cnn comes on while i'm typing this and says exactly what i just typed
memo
to the mod or mods doing the reality re-engineering edit and moving posts from the dt thread over here, there are a bunch that should be moved, that haven't been