well, if you start with the understanding that Trump is a coward and a bully, your first five are off the list. No way he risks the bad press of flag covered caskets on the runway at Dover.
All he really needs is some B roll of paratroopers landing, or tanks rolling off a landing craft and maybe some shitty patriotic country song written by AI and he can distract the whole country for a few more weeks. I'm going to look back at history and think "What would Republican Jesus do?" No, not that guy, I'm talking about the original Republican Jesus... Ronald Reagan. Venezuela checks a lot of boxes. Not too far, mostly brown people and evil commies, and wouldn't put up much resistance to the might of the US military...but it's pretty large and would require s lot of boots on the ground to secure the peace.. Looking at it through the mind of Trumpco, that still might be more than what's needed. BUT, right there off the coast is a small island nation with casino gambling, beautiful beaches, and an international airport. The perfect place for a new Trump Casino and Resort, so I will say the target is, with 80% certainty, Aruba.