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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. There was a dog pack that roamed when I lived near Evergreen (mountain suburb of Denver). The old timers* said the dogs came from city people dropping off unwanted pets in the foothills. * “old timers” are the reason why some people think of Colorado as the Appalachia of West, so take my source’s conclusion regarding the source of animals for wild dogs with more than a modicum of skepticism.
  2. That was one hell of a bad dog owner. If nothing else, go render some help to the dog while the pooch was still living and suffering. we have too many yahoos encouraging aggressive behavior and signaling in dogs. That was a good shoot but totally preventable, if the owner gave a damn about his pup.
  3. That dynamic is certainly in play and volatile. We are creating a generation of Archie Bunkers - and the Z’s abhor cringe olds.
  4. Apple ready to report. Working on my MacBook Air for good luck
  5. “You have to use incognito mode” is the chef’s kiss in that video.
  6. Excellent UT paper on the FinTech and fraud with PPP below. I am not so sure PPP was efficient in staving off unemployment. I see it more as a transfer of wealth to those with bad spending habits and mired in over consumption. Caveat - the data is not there yet for me to conclude the wisdom of directing welfare payments to employers. There was a hell of a lot of welfare fraud by “business owners” under PPP that I naively did not expect. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3906395 In the distribution of the Paycheck Protection Program’s (PPP) $803 billion in funds, FinTech lenders began minimally but ramped up their market share to over 80% of originated loans by the end of the program. We examine metrics related to potential misreporting including non-registered businesses, multiple businesses at residential addresses, abnormally high implied compensation per employee, and large inconsistencies in jobs reported with another government program. We assess these four metrics with five supplemental measures and extensive supporting analysis. Suspicious loans exhibit sharp and discontinuous increases in misreporting at maximum loan thresholds and round loan amounts with discontinuities more pronounced among FinTechs. FinTech loans are more than 3.5 times as likely to be initiated by someone with a felony record, strongly cluster in industry-county pairs to a degree that is infeasible based on U.S. Census data, and frequently exhibit similar loan features within lender-county pairs. Differences across lenders are persistent with certain FinTech lenders seemingly specializing in questionable loans. Few of these loans have been prosecuted by authorities or repaid. FinTech lenders in round three rapidly increased both their market share and the fraction of their loans with potential misreporting, particularly in zip codes with the highest levels of questionable lending in earlier rounds. From the first round of the program in April 2020 to the last month of the program in May 2021, the amount of potential misreporting increased more than four-fold. While FinTech lenders likely expand PPP access, this may come at the cost of facilitating fraudulent credit.
  7. Fiscally - somewhat. The PPP was a poorly designed welfare program for business owners and their consuming habits (keeping up with the Jones). The monetary stimulation was far worse for inflation given the supply chain problems. The supply chain remains the primary driver of inflation. The “I want it now” mindset led to price increases. The longer the supply chain remains inefficient, the more likely the inflation will be sticky. The Fed is drying up liquidity (see Crypto).
  8. Looking at his profile indicates he first posted on November 11, 2021. Whose owns the Bravo sock? GRhorn?
  9. One avenue would be to convince Putin that China’s bastardized “World Island” ambitions will overwhelm Russian power and hope he pivots in that direction.
  10. Canadians like Gladwell and Peterson are the shock troops for the spread of Canadian mediocrity.
  11. Cool. They got in on the March 2020 dip and rode the Fed free money. People were panicky in March 2020. “Follow the Fed”apparently worked for many. Maybe too many (inflation). I assume you and your parents smile when they see that chart. Congrats to them. Well done.
  12. The Fed’s job now - slow down an economy without crashing that fragile overheated economy. Their QE purchases are down to leas than half of what they were a few months ago and will end in March (two years of QE). They are planning on four rate hikes this year. I do think some of this volatility is a taper tantrum. 120 billion a month in QE left some sectors well supported. More speculative risks and those that run on dovish Fed policy should take a hit (and probably have already). While the Fed were brrrting QE at 120 billion a month, the markets were easier to read (as demonstrated on this thread). I think we are left with a situation where the Fed Put will be left in the Fed’s toolbox until there is a much larger crisis. I am uncertain how worried the markets are about the status of the Fed Put. That was/is a lot of QE doled out.
  13. No question about that. The Creature from Jekyll Island was to designed to protect International Capital (and International Capital has demands the Fed must meet or lose the USD as the primary world’s reserve currency).
  14. Doveish announcement and hawkish press conference. I need a drink.
  15. FYI - the right - especially in this trump age - is tied at the hip to the white identity and the Christian Identity movements.
  16. These fucks think Liz Cheney is a “librul”.
  17. For the gqper’s - the US is not planning to invade Russia. Tucked is making that up. Seriously - he’s just using that as hyperbole and hyperbole is just made-up shit. /end of public service announcements
  18. Facts. Is there opportunity for growth? Improbable.
  19. Joe Rogaine is brighter than Canadian Jordan Peterson. And Joe ain’t that bright unless he is stoned and occasionally stumbles on a vein of wisdom. I am serious about Peterson. He’s got the grift down to a science. And did I mention he is Canadian?
  20. Tucker is not this stupid. He knows the US geopolitical downsides to Russia taking Ukraine. He’s doing this dumb blonde act for money. (It’s all about the Benjamin’s, baby). The simpletons gorge themselves on this type of content.
  21. The Fed issues it’s monetary policy decision tomorrow. I am expecting the Fed to announce “Whip Inflation Now.” And hoping their fight against inflation is already priced in.
  22. Young Neil all grown up and shit. Hell yeah.
  23. The bootstrap cure-all ignores the biological manifestations of poverty. https://yaledistilled.sites.yale.edu/browse-issues/2020-issue/biology-poverty-trap-how-genetic-modifications-perpetuate-socioeconomic
  24. Our diplomats in action - Added bonus - “don’t show the tail number” (tail number centered in press angle). Ukraine is fucked.
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