It absolutely would. That scenario would constitute regression from the program's mark of success from the previous year so by definition would constitute failure. Would the season be considered a total failure in that scenario? Of course not. That's why I delineated degrees of failure. A small failure to perform up to the mark the program set 12 months ago wouldn't be cause for alarm or reason to fire the coach.
If Sark and the football team go 9-3 in their first SEC season and miss the playoffs it would also be a small degree of failure since it does not reach the level of productivity established for the program 12 months prior. Now if they go 6-6 then it would be total failure.
As far as your comparison to the history of Texas basketball, that is completely invalid now due to the seismic shift and how the sport operates. The portal and basically unregulated NIL of the current era is significant for the richest athletic department in the country. With those parameters and this university's resources there is zero excuse for either of the men's money sports to be inexperienced or lacking in talent in any season. Texas basketball should never, under these parameters and rules, be in a position where it is a bubble team. Expectations need to be adjusted for this.