Sure, and consensus ratings might not mean much in the first 20 either. But a consensus top 30 player probably has better odds of success than a consensus #100 player.
My default position is that Caserio is an idiot who thinks heâs smarter or more analytics driven than other GMs. The 2 first round picks last year are still TBD but arenât looking good. His 2021 draft didnât have a first or second round pick, but he reached on every player that draft (Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan can be below average contributors. Congrats?). This year he bet the farm on Anderson (who they shouldâve taken #2 sans trade), either to appease Demeco or more likely in a win-now panic over his own job plus convince Cal it will excite the fan base and sell tickets. He stayed put and didnât trade up to get the C Schmitz, which is fine, except as soon as Schmitz went off the board, then Caserio spent picks to trade up and get his next highest rated C. Did he have to trade up to get Juice? If he was willing to trade up, why not a couple picks earlier to get Schmitz? Hopefully Tank does great at WR and PR, but Hyatt is a Will Fuller type homerun threat that wouldâve paired well on the outside with Metchie in slot. Now we have Metchie and TankâŠwho plays outside? In the 4th, he traded twice when players like Ringo, Utah CB, Roschon, and the other Ohio St. OT on the board.
Even prior to Caserio, the Texans have a history of taking very long shots in rounds 5-7 (maybe 4th too) that hang out on the practice squad for a year then get cut. Before you say most 5-7th picks are long shots, teams that draft guys that have slipped for whatever reason, or take guys with blue chip pasts from P5 programs have better odds of late blooming and making a roster than the DT from Eastern Kinnesaw St. or the TE from Pontius Pilate Plilates D3.
Last year the Jets were the post draft darlings, and it turned out correct. This year itâs the Eagles followed by the Giants, and neither team had to make trades to get good players lower than their perceived value. You look at Houstonâs draft and if Stroud and Anderson arenât both stars, it was a fuckup. If Juice and Tank canât be a contributors, it was a fail. Is anyone seriously expected regular season contributions from anyone taken after Tank? They might as well have traded their 4ths, 5th, 6ths, and 7th for another good 3rd round pick if thatâs how Caserio drafts/evaluates.