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TXSooner518

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Everything posted by TXSooner518

  1. No it was truly awful, and not just for people who strongly support another candidate. I don't have a specific candidate that I really support (my general favorite had been Yang), but I thought it was absolutely horrendous. A guy at my office who desperately wants Trump beaten was full-on Bloomberg until last night, and now is totally off of him.
  2. I’m never folding that. A3hh is 33% vs 88 on that board. If he shows us the 88 it is a very slightly -EV call. Most people are not making giant overbet jams with sets there. If we ever fold to an overpair or a smaller flush draw it’s a disaster. MUCH different if we have say KhJh on Th9s4h. Now they could have the nut flush draw and we are screwed fairly badly.
  3. No CR, but is pretty hilarious how many people see 67 as too old to coach basketball, but 5 of the 6 most likely people to win the presidential election are 77, 78, 73, 77, and 70, with the 70 being the least likely of the 5. Too old for the pick-and-roll, but unilateral control over the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet? Sure!!
  4. I think calling multiway there with KJs is fine, though we need to be aware that if we flop one pair, we aren't looking to play big pots. I think it plays too well multiway to fold it though we are OOP, and folding isn't terribad. 3betting is certainly fine depending on opponents. Giant LOLOLOL at someone tanking for a less than potsize bet with AT on QTT2, no flush possible yet. Jesus Christ. I don't love your snap-reshove with AK on that hand. Do you think he just calls it off with 2 pair when you insta rip it back over the top? At least pause (don't do bad acting, but don't Hellmuth-gasm your chips in either). I would be fine calling his raise, though obv a Q or J river kind of blow. I think that gets us the most money from his weaker 2 pair hands. Remember just because we are ahead of a betting/raising range doesn't mean we should raise, we would need to either be folding out better hands than ours or be ahead of his range that CALLS our raise or reraise. That said, I don't think it's actively bad, just sub-optimal. The problem on the 66 hand is we need to be counting on her to fold a decent amount of hands, and lots of players aren't folding to an $80 jam with $20 already in, plus other dead money. And when she shrug calls it off, we are usually not in great shape, we are just flipping. I'd rather have an ATs or something to do this, so we are beating all her broadway hands that she shrug calls. Again, I don't think it's hugely -EV, I think it's probably about 0 EV but increases variance. Yeah, overall, agree with Lurch, it's just mainly poker here, not anything egregiously OOL IMO. Oh, edit to add, I really don't like the "check in the dark" thing either. What do you think you're gaining from that? It makes your hand look like what it is, a draw. If you have a pair or two pair, are you really going to want to check dark on a two spade board, allowing him to check back and draw for free at a 4th spade to beat you if a spade turns?
  5. No, yeah, you're much closer. I would put it at exactly 2/43 x 1/42, so 1/903, since we know 9 cards before we need the runners (the 3 flop cards, and the 3 hands). If you were sitting there with KQdd and thinking, hmm what are my odds to catch running straight flush, I think your 1/1081 is the right answer, since they only know 5 cards, not 9. I was shorthanding it while typing on my phone as 1/40 x 1/40 but obv spaced out on that even though it's perfect-perfect, there are 2 possible combos not one, b/c it obv doesn't matter what order they come in. So you have a 2 outer to catch a 1 outer. Yay poker!
  6. The real beat is those fucking cards. I once lost with TT on a TT6 rainbow flop to KQs. And the runners here are more like 1 in 1600.
  7. You honestly can’t see a difference in wanting to institute a UBI as policy vs just brute-forcing your own wealth and literally buying the office? Come onnnnn.
  8. +1. I can't think of another movie that was making me legit have sweaty palms like that.
  9. Bookman - standard and fine. Sometimes it be that way. Go Lurch!
  10. The whole "but the seats are able to recline for a reason" argument fails to acknowledge that sometimes a very short person or child is behind you, or that seat is empty, which would make a good time to recline. So the button can still be there for a legit purpose, but you can still be an ass for doing it in some/most situations.
  11. These are good questions to ask. For one, you should definitely be raising hands like TT and AJ over limps to you. You don’t have to 3b them if it is already raised depending on players and position (and should sometimes be folding AJ to a raise depending on these factors.) Some players would raise this hand over limpers but I would also just call, it plays fine multi-way, and I don’t like bloating pots OOP with marginal hands. I would raise Q9s if I’m on the button over most, but not all, limpers. I also think you should have a much bigger lead range in limped pots. In a raised pot, there is likely a c-bet so leading into a raiser is much different than leading into a limped pot. You should be pretty consistent with sizing esp since this is a regular group. Leading 2x pot isn’t what I would do. That said if we have this many players calling 2x bets maybe that’s the play. But we wanna be able to lead lots of hands here and can’t if $7 is our sizing. I think checking turn is fine, again esp if we have a wider flop lead range. If we lead out with a hand like middle pair A kicker or top pair no kicker and get 3 calls, we should be checking turn. So that covers us if we wanna check our draws here. Betting turn again would be fine if we bet smaller on flop. But I just think if 3 guys call a 2x pot bet on flop we are unlikely to win with a turn bet. All the sizing stuff said, you need to know if the guys in your game look at bet size compared to pot or just in “real dollars”. For example is $7 into $3 “eh just 7 bucks” but $25 into $60 “whoa big bet he must be serious”? River lead seems standard/good. Part of this shows the peril of being OOP. It just looks stronger when you lead out on a flush card river. Making the straight would be a better strategy next time. [emoji23]
  12. There’s a difference between vice tax and “not available for sale.” My recollection is NYC went with the latter and didn’t have an exception for non-sugar drinks.
  13. I agree we need to have a consistent bet size. I don’t think it should be 80% pot on a board where he has range advantage. We should bet smaller not bigger when we are at disadvantage. We can beat hands like A7, 87, 76. I don’t think he’s folding 99+ at this point. I don’t love either river option honestly.
  14. Both flop and turn are bigger than I like and we have a very big pot now without a very big hand. Any info at all on LJ? Does he know you?
  15. Yeah, I don't like the open UTG with AJo to 5. You are OK getting multiple callers with hands like 55 or 87hh or even AJss but big offsuit cards don't play well multiway, especially in bloated pots. I feel like opening to 10-12, folding, and limping are all >>> opening to 5. And I don't like varying open size by hand, so you need to construct your open range appropriately. I also haaaate the flop check-raise in the same hand. You are the preflop raiser, then you check-raise an ace high flop. What is your target there? Are you trying to get value? Trying to bluff? If you had called a preflop raise, say from the BB, then did this, maybe. But now your hand looks super strong, but is actually medium to medium+ strength. If the PFR checkraises an ace high flop and you have AT, how do you feel? Pretty bad, right? And unlikely anyone has AQ or AK for us to try to bluff off. So what are we doing? Betting or check-calling >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/raising. Also fold the T7 pre. We aren't NEARLY deep enough effective to call with T7. The guy has put in 1/6 of his stack pre. We don't flop gin even close to enough to make up for all the times we just whiff and lose $15, or get a small to medium piece and have no room to maneuver b/c the stack to pot ratio is so small, and drop $100 with a marginal hand. On TLK's hand, agree, need to just fold the 43 when 6 handed. Raising could be acceptable, depending on game conditions. I think postflop calling or raising flop is OK, and calling or raising turn is OK.
  16. But why though? What specific qualities does Bloomberg have that makes you super excited to vote for him, but no one else on either side?
  17. Eh. I wouldn't say deep shit. There is no hand that can have you beaten on both boards. I would expect an open shove to be a straight on the top board trying to scoop, and so that I'll be good for the bottom board, with 4 outs to scoop myself. Also once you call, the guy behind you has a very tough decision even with something like J4. If there was a T or 5 on the bottom board, I think you can more comfortably fold, since he can now have you beat on both boards.
  18. Two pair on both boards heads up is a damn strong hand assuming they aren’t super coordinated.
  19. So if I want a free bonus night on my vacation, I can show up reeking, and the airline will cover my meal, hotels, and flight the next day? Cool.
  20. Yeah. Look at it this way, at least you got the value of the money for the time period. If you hadn't made the mistake, that money never would have hit your account in the first place and wouldn't be there now, so you're no worse off (other than any penalties).
  21. A10 was slightly tougher than the CAA, but nonetheless he had the best team in the A10 3 straight years but never won the league, and the only time they won the conf tourney was that 2015 season. The 3 seasons before Shaka VCU averaged just over 25 wins a game, won the conference all 3 seasons, and the conference tourney 2 of the 3. They won 25+ games in 3 of the 4 seasons after Shaka as well, and have won the conference 2 of those 4 seasons. So in the years surrounding Shaka's 0 for 6 mark in winning the conference, VCU won their conference 5 out of 7 times. Shaka's performance is at or below the coaches surrounding him, except for the Final Four run, which literally never should have happened. And you had it right the first time, it was 5 straight bids. He got to 6 straight with his first season at Texas.
  22. Checking back the nuts in position headsup can be very profitable. Imagine in this hand KC doesn’t have the Kd. He may actually fold to a turn bet since he may already be beat plus 20% of the time the river is a 4th diamond which is crushing to his hand, and he knows he may also have to call a river bet. But if turn goes check check then KC is much more likely to call a river bet since it buys him showdown. Also KC may go for value on river thinking he may be good (def think he should be betting this river for example). I just had a hand like this in a tourney where I turned nut flush heads up and checked it back. Opp paid off a river raise and said he just didn’t think I had the flush since I checked.
  23. On the KC-97 hand (I don’t acknowledge the username change dammit) I prefer a bet-fold on the river to a check-call. He will check behind lots of one pair hands that he would crying call with. If he raises river we can happily fold. As played I’m almost always just clicking call there. He could be valuing less. And JFC at that 33 hand. Chips please!
  24. VCU 2015 - top A10 team in KenPom, finished T-4th in A10, did win A10 tourney, lost in first round NCAA as higher seed VCU 2014 - top A10 team in KenPom, finished 2nd in A10, lost A10 tourney final, lost in first round NCAA as higher seed VCU 2013 - top A10 team in KenPom, finished 2nd in A10, lost A10 tourney final, lost in 2nd round NCAA by 25 points in 4-5 matchup VCU 2012 - 2nd CAA team in KenPom (1 spot behind Drexel), finished 2nd in CAA, won CAA tourney, lost in 2nd round NCAA VCU 2011 - 3rd CAA team in KenPom, finished 4th in CAA, lost CAA title game, then ran to Final Four after the least-deserved at large in history. VCU 2010 - 2nd CAA team in KenPom, finished 5th in CAA, lost CAA semifinals, won CBI. So in Shaka's six seasons at VCU, he never won a regular season title, despite having one of the best 2 teams in the league 5 times and the best 3 times. 2 of his 6 seasons he finished 3 spots below expectation. His last 4 NCAA games there were a win over a 12 seed, a 25 point loss, and two losses as the favored seed. Seriously, where is Shaka's career without the gift of that 2011 at-large bid??
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