
horn4life
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Good call! -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Yeah that was something I learned from a guy that rented furniture in Killeen, that was a friend of my BIL. I could have inherited a house in Perdido Key, Fla years ago, but it was way too far away from Austin to consider keeping and managing. My cousin lives in it today. I am going to need an officer in all likelihood. As I want to get about $3500 a month as it's a 4 bed 2.5 bath house with a view. THANKS to both of you for bringing up the military. The fact that Fort Hood borders half of Lake Belton means only nature by the lake. With the exception of the big water intake where you sometimes see then guys practice repelling. Here is a decent pic of the view. It's too steep for water access. I need to do a panorama. But I like the undeveloped aspects of the lake. -
Interesting to see the Fed dot plot. Glad that all the normal Fed members were unified. Not surprising the new guy is again playing to an audience of one (shocking) thinking we should 1.25 points lower by year's end? Of course when you profess tariffs are not taxes, that's not normal in economics... anywhere. The good news is today's snapshot looks like we get 1/4 for sure, and possibly 1/2 by years end. IF inflation stays in check (which I don't). Miran's far outside the norm skews the downward trajectory, but a majority are saying if conditions remain as they are by a vote I think 1/2 by years end. I still do not think the cost of tariffs have been completely absorbed. Port of Los Angeles for example expects 850K containers in September, about 10% less than in September of last year. So slow growth may be more weighted than I thought.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
This is a quote from @UT_OB1 from the markets falling thread. I wanted to move it over here to get feedback on his investments, since you guys know I am leaning towards talking all my inheritance (and likely writing a check) in my parents home. A lot of similarities to my situation and the concerns of taxes and insurance wiping out rental income over time is a real concern. SO much of his situation seems similar to mine, except my big advantage would be a high stepped up value of the home at my Father's passing. I also agree with my desire NOT to do STR and want on only do MTR (medium term rentals) of 30 days or more. Because I don't want to deal with cleaning services, and constant move out inspections mainly. I do not want to rent long term, because of my concerns about potential damage to the property. A great deal of the reasoning for MTR is the property is on Septic. And they spray emitter system by the lake while fine today, might not be up to code if something went wrong. That could be very, very bad, and very very expensive. ----------------- Anyone here do Furnished MTR? Seems like somebody who posts here primarily does that with their rentals, but I cannot remember or search and figure out who. But I remember I this from maybe 5 years ago? If this is in your personal wheelhouse please post or PM me. -
Thank you so much for replying! I am going to cut and paste your response onto the RE thread, so as not to clutter this up with my own personal quest for rental property data. But you are touching exactly on what my concerns are in remodeling and then inheriting my parents home. The 6 months remodel drifting is spot on as well as my enjoyment of seeing the finished result. The downside of this strategy I am sort of deciding is that the negative of doing a lot of your own work, on a fixer upper is that your starting point for depreciation is much lower. And depreciation is the magic of RE IMHO. I am VERY concerned about Taxes and Insurance. Especially the insurance side of the equation. I have done the foreclosure and remodel, so I understand that space. Again thanks for the reply!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
1/4 point today and MAYBE another 1/4 in December. IF I was in yall's business I would be calling folks hard this afternoon about getting in now. As there is a real possibility of two bad things happening in the next 30 days that could derail lower rates going forward. The main one is an upward trend in inflation. Second, is perhaps perhaps the most real chance of a government shutdown we have had in a long while. I would bring up both these factors to my clients, to hopefully create a sense of urgency. Looks like my prediction around this time last year of us getting lucky to see a 6.25% MMI last year by September seems spot on right now. -
I think the correct progression is "Bat in the Chimney" then evolving into the visible "Bear in the Cave." If you have a Bat in the Chimney, or a Bear in the cave you can't quite reach and are a lady. You might hit The Booger Trifecta, as one good sneeze can also get that lady into "Jake's in Jail" territory.
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I would have said last week, Get some Gloves and you can borrow my man card. Today I say this- I heard a term from a prim and proper lady a couple of years back that I had never heard before, "Bat in the Chimney." But in her case, she was referring to a booger that was hanging and blowing back and forth in the nostril. I thought is was pretty funny. Any of ya'll heard that before? I think of it every time that little booger is a problem...
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Listening to Cash Patel testify, reminds me of how a smart young child vehemently lies to their parents when they do something wrong. Listening to Pam Bondi, vowing to attack free speech yesterday was on an equally childish level. We have the most juvenile and incompetent, and blindly loyal cabinet in American History. Hopefully we can survive their incompetence, and non-allegiance to our constitution when they perjured themselves in taking their oaths of office. What's really sad, is the immediate lunge of the GOP to use the murder of an unelected person for political gain. While completely ignoring the slaughter of two elected officials by a right winger. You also have to realize that most Fox News watchers actually believe the political violence is from the left. When the reality is political violence from the right is about 6x, that from the left. The one thing I wish, but you know will NEVER HAPPEN, is a breakdown by party on whom is being threatened the most. It seems the main result of Charlie Cooks death, is a Republicans now feel threatened, when the did not before. Evidence of the $58 million request for security by Trump for the Whitehouse and Supreme Court. In contrast to not even a kind word from Trump on the murdered elected Dems. When our President only cares about the Republican dead? Where the fuck are we at?
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Chubb should have gone down at the one, and we kick a field goal and win. Or we win by kicking an earlier field goal, instead of getting stuffed at the goal line. Or maybe if the fucking offensive line can get a 1 yard push on runs rather than a 1 yard retreat we win. Don't make so many take big yards off the board, or sustain drives like on the last one with penalties we win. OL is simply not getting the job done. As the OL goes, so goes the offensive performance. If you cannot run the ball you cannot win. And if there is a way to run the ball without good OL play, PLEASE let me know what are the plays that you can call over and over to mask that weakness. If there is some OC/play caller that has a solution for weak ass OL play out there, they could instantly demand head coach money and get it. Because my friends there is no play calling that can eliminate the overall disaster of poor line play.
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I almost bought some Klarna pre-market this AM, and it is up 2-3% today. Any thoughts on KLAR? I have not researched the company at all, just like it and Affirm's models and thinking if inflation does what I think it will, both might be good plays. Affirm has had a bigger runup, that's why I was looking at Klarna.
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To be fair, quoting a single individual's statistics to refute an actual study? Would be a running joke in any statistics class in the country. Could you PLEASE give us info on these rentals. It sounds as if you have been holding at least some of the properties a decade? I don't want to argue against you. I am just curious (and personally scared) because I am thinking of writing a check, to buy out my sister to get my Father's home upon his demise. I PM'ed you if you don't want make that info public. Which I understand. What is certain, is that Multiple things can be true. Builders have not seen prices rise by the same percentages as lumber futures trading rises. Have prices risen at Lowes and Home Depot on Lumber? Absolutely! But retail responds more quickly ton inflation for a variety of reasons, than price increases for wholesale volume buying through established B2B supply chains. Housing and rent has increased dramatically. Again for a variety of reasons. IMHO mainly because corporate and private equity has entered the market in a way we have only seen previously after steep market retreats. I was told by an agent in the Belton area that over 30% of the houses sold in Bell county in 2024, we not to individuals, but to corporate investors. Please correct me if I am wrong here, but presently the percentage of non-homestead home purchases is as high as we have ever seen in a "normal" market? You can lose money on rent houses or make money on rent houses. Depends on what you paid for the property and how much rent you can get. If you bought a rent property in the Spring of 2023? You are likely not covering that nut. Just like you couldn't when you bought the home. It's also true that for many people turning a "profit" on rentals never comes. Unless you exclude the generous, depreciation income deduction, from your bottom line. I for instance would never buy a turn key investment property. The longer term increase in equity in the remodel and higher rent because of the remodel. But a lot of folks buy retail, rent retail, and thus have a lot thinner margin to make a profit. I will say I found @Captainant link interesting. Looking specifically constant dollars, versus current dollars. Since 2020 in Texas $1091 in 2020, $1503 in 2025 in current dollars. In contrast in constant dollars $1091 in 2020, vs $1183 in 2025. I have no idea about the veracity of the site. But I would find it extremely difficult to even remotely suggest that wages have kept pace with rising rents. So since this is the Market rather than RE thread, which of you guys are placing big stock bets on builders this week? How are you investing in stocks in relation to the RE market? I searched for "top real estate stocks", and got a yahoo link that shows and compares the RE stocks to the S&P. Glad I chimed in on this. As I am considering taking all of my inheritance in a future rental property, than in cash and stock. This link makes me wonder if the cash might be a better option? Anyhow interesting to look at the sectors that are kicking ass and which are not. I was mainly looking the 6 month (current) and 5 year (historic) numbers. Interesting stuff. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/real-estate/
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Depends on how you are positioned in the market. I think a correction will come eventually because inflation is rising. I figure we will be at 3.5% inflation heading into Christmas. Whether that does anything to the market who knows.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Only if the liquid portion of the estate do not exceed the value of the house. My Dad's burn rate at independent living isn't much right now. But if he needed nursing care, that could cause the erosion of the cash position of the estate. My original idea was to rent the house to prevent erosion of the estate in a worst case scenario. It may be that selling the place and me just getting a bigger pop is the way to go. Especially if rates are a bit lower in the Spring. Like I told my dad the other day. "If you try hard to prove yourself wrong and can't, you might actually have a good idea." My MIL is actively dying right now, and I have covid. I have been thinking more about the commitment to pull this off, and the possibility he might be actively dying during the process. I want to be able to be there for him at the end, and I need to allocate that some additional weight on the negative side of the ledger for that in the decision making. I also need to think about the things I hate now, higher property taxes and never ending rises home insurance. I fI inherit ,and then sell I take the whole hit on the closing costs for example. Lots of little details to think about in trying to evaluate this idea. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Spoke to my Dad about this and as I explained to him, first and foremost the math has to work, and I need to do some more research. Depending on when my Dad passes there is a decent possibility that he will have enough liquid assets to where I would on the hook for under $100K. The other thing I pointed out yesterday was that by not selling the house the Estate would not incur those closing cost expenses. royiv - The will will be the main thing. Does the other side of the family, or the estate, have enough funds to make you whole?
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