
horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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Which hand do you touch yourself with? That defines your "handedness..." But if you lost that hand... you WOULD adapt!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I wonder how the proposed elimination of FEMA will influence the price of real estate and insurance costs for the RE industry? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Not sure I never get that far in. That's the problem. You try to find bliss and you lose business, or other important calls. I have had some very odd spoof numbers lately with the same repetitive BS. With old people its a numbers game of this sort of BS. Eventually somebody's mom or dad gets confused and gets ripped off... if only there was something that could be done about it.... Honestly I could give a shit now about live folks repetitively calling me, it's the fucking endless non-sleeping AI bots. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Just wait until you close in on 65... I get about 15 calls daily, about "the new Trump administrations changes to medicare..." I'm not even on medicare! But fuck, the number spoofing is mind blowing... And yes it's about folks selling your information. Why the fuck can't our government make unwanted solicitations a crime with enough penalties to stop the endless bullshit. It's the best part about going offshore or off grid. No more fucking calls that I do not fucking care about. -
It's impossible not to. Tariff taxes on imports cannot be absorbed by manufacturer and US importing company. Unless you think all companies have a shit ton of excess profits they can shed to absorb the new tax. Ultimate whoever buys the product will absorb the majority of the cost increase. It's just math. Market will indeed take off like a rocket if there is no inflation. But we are going to get both unemployment and inflation. And the Fed will simply not know which is the bigger shark until more data comes in. Unless brutal unemployment numbers can overwhelm inflation concerns... hopes for Fed, or Bond market pushing rates downward is a bad bet.
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It's all about the "dark arts!"
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
My point is that folks with less liquidity have less means to ride out volatility when it spirals downward. I am just very uncertain that bitcoin truly insulates against it moving along with the markets downward if things go really bad? I just do not think it is a as decoupled as some assert. I have watched it decouple to some degree for certain. And the uncertainty of US fiscal policy in combination with the potential of the US government embracing of bitcoin. it seems to me that the possibility of the US embracing bitcoin is as much responible for the rise as any other factor. Or am I misreading this timeframe? As I have not been closely following at all. -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
So I did not know who Lyn Alden was, but got into an interesting bitcoin conversation yesterday. The scarcity aspect I can buy into. And the fact that so many people are spending big bucks to mine it, shows a investment in bitcoin future. But my question is: Is bitcoin truly decoupled from the dollar? Does a stock market/economic crash send bitcoin in the opposite direction than the markets? I can't argue with the math of something increasing in price, especially in the last 6 months. The argument of the similarity to gold I understand, but my big question is the youthful ownership (generally) could make is just as susceptible to steeps selloffs alongside US stocks. Simply as young folks are always in riskier assets, and also have the least deep pockets, so the downsides can be steep. I see the upsides, I just want to be convinced more about decoupling. -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
She hates a second "n" in Lynn? -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
We will not have any inflation, and the big beautiful bill does not add to deficits. Also companies take tariff taxes out of profits and therefore consumers will not pay a dime extra! That is all... 😉 Wow... I have never channeled my inner Mike Johnson before.... Sort of fun to say a lot of shit you know isn't true! -
Isn't A&M's slogan sort of acceptance of mediocrity, with a dash of eternal baseless hope....
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"If You Think It's A Scam, It Usually Is"
horn4life replied to ROFL BOX's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
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For the love of God. If you are going to watch Steel Magnolias you watch it WITH the wife! You don't throw away those good behavior bonuses on your own damn time!
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"If You Think It's A Scam, It Usually Is"
horn4life replied to ROFL BOX's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
AI is a game changer here. You have the ability to spoof all sorts of numbers. I get a minimum of 10 calls every day trying to sell me something, enroll me in something, save me from some emergency, whatever. But the new wrinkle I just saw this week was that somehow their AI engine spoofed a Soccer association I used to be active in. Not sure how they got that info, some BBS, or tournament registration material online somewhere? Anyhow, pretty fucking sophisticated. Got me to answer. $13K in gift cards for a friend of ours Mom. The folks at the bank tried to stop her, the folks at HEB tried to stop her, but nobody could stop her from throwing away that $13,000. Then later the daughter of the same woman got scammed into thinking there was some unauthorized activity on her moms account. I think she gave them remote access? $26,000 poof! Luckily they were very liquid and losing $40K was not a big deal. IF there is ANY time urgency, it's always bullshit. -
Yep. Hydrostatic water line test. If the house was a flip they may have never used the lines with much flow. But with the hydrostatic test you basically plug the drain line, fill to a level and look for any decline in the water line. Basically a cheap way to try to discover foundational drainage issues. But this sounds like water not from the drains, but from the supply side? Common one is under the dishwasher with a bad unseen connection. Often on new installs where the washer was never run. Super sorry that this is happening to your Daughter.
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Well finally starting to see some of the unemployment trickle upwards. Only a 5% increase over predicted, but a rise. Interesting to see the market digest the muting of Trump's tariff powers. Surge initially was over 500 points last night on the Dow futures. Now... about unchanged. "The markets can only focus on the shark nearest the boat," was a phrase I heard recently. Tariffs ahve been the closest shark. Now the inflation is coming most certainly, and the unemployment is beginning to rise. And focus will move towards normal fiscal risks. Like massive deficits to be funded when the 10 year is at most often close to 4.5%... Anyhow it will be interesting to see if the inflation will start to show up in tomorrows numbers or not.
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Oddly I was thinking about bank fishing with a lot of growth near the bank the other day when I was playing around with a new lightwieght casting rod in a small lake in Katy. But there was mossy growth everywhere cloer to the bank. But deeper out there was clean water. And then I thought about the Bobber Stopper rigs we use to fish the jetty! We use the adjustable depth bobber stopper rigs to control the depth of the bait, to NOT get repeatedly hung up ont he rocks. I wondered if a bigger rod with longer casting distance and heavier line to drag shit back though the growth if you do get a bite. So you could cast out past the growth and have a bait suspended in clean water. Would likely take some playing around with, but if you are getting blanked anyway. I also wondered if something like the synthetic shimp fish bit baits might work for white bass in fresh water. As everything eats shrimp, right? But it might work. And if it does, you will have a productive fishing hole!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Tariffs are inflationary, period. And folks that say "it won't be that bad" simply are not good at math, and horrific at understanding economics. Walmart for example has until now "eaten the tariffs." Why would they "eat" tariffs? To not lose hard earned market share. Walmart can also ease up margins on ALL products due to the diversity in the sourcing of their product line. So the ability to "hide" the increased costs of tax tariffed products. During it's earning report Walmart explained that going forward, that they would have to pass on the costs to consumers at some point. In reaction to this truthful statement, the administration calls and threatens/begs/cajoles Walmart to not pass on rising costs associated with tariff taxes. President Trump tweets that Walmart should just continue to eat the tariffs. That is pretty good evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Both the statement by Walmart, and the political posturing to subvert the reality of tariff tax costs, being ultimately passed onto consumers are affirmation of who pays for tariffs. Economics is a particularly imperfect art. As there are so many moving parts, and the underlying data is often not accurate in real time. But over time, and longer periods, Economics is relatively straightforward. Supply, Demand, market advantages and market drags as well as costs of borrowing are pretty much the whole ball of wax. What is really important to understand right now is that all the "inflation news is not that bad" is a combination of companies willingly not passing on increased costs, for fear of losing market share. (Something tough for smaller businesses). So those costs have been instead subtracted from profits temporarily, but in a manner IMPOSSIBLE to sustain. The tariff taxes will be passed on to the consumer, there is no other alternative. Or have publicly traded companies stock prices reflect large decreases in profitability and thus stock value decrease for investors. And smaller less diversified companies That is what is behind door number two. In all honesty you are going to have the companies that can, will try to hold off increasing prices as long as they can. Trying to find a temporary balance of door number 1, and not giving guidance specifics on their likely result As the last to blink may actually gain market share from those who blink sooner on passing on tariff taxes. But over time more and more of the cost will simply be passed onto the consumer and shifted back into the bottom line. Unless of course you think business folks just let their profit margins erode permanently? So for a while it is possible that things "are not that bad" because of that early profit eating tax absorption. But that is not sustainable. Unfortunately for the mortgage writing industry this means the Fed is going to wait and see. And when they wait, they will see... inflation. Because when you add a tax to the cost of goods sold, it cannot always be absorbed solely from a businesses profit. Of course maybe a lot of companies have a shit ton of excess profit they can allocate to whatever tariff tax costs they will face? 😉 But like I said before, when Scott Bessent is calling up Walmart, and the President is telling a company to eat the tariffs? That tells me that the same people saying that tariff taxes are not inflationary, know sure as hell they are! Somebody HAS to eat the new additional cost of goods. That person is the consumer of those goods. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Well... is this actually a joke about driving out of Houston on Memorial day weekend? But the places to go list... that is one long ass motherfucker.... -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
My buddy bought a nice condo at Clines Landing in Port A. Their insurance has skyrocketed, and they are also losing revenue from their small marina area. Deepening the channel for Super tankers, has the result of sending gnarly surge waves knocking the shit out of ther marina area. I think the old rental income was in the $60K a year range, now $6K?. I think they are now upside down on price. If forget how badly underfunded Florida's insurer of last resort is. Seems like a couple years ago it has like 17% of the reserves to cover a major storm. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Low interest rates can only hold you in your home by choice. And some folks don't have a choice over time. We could stay here until those "two steps" got too big one day. Of course having my escrow increase enough because of taxes and insurance to bump my monthly note up nearly 9%, means my low interest rate got expense eclipsed this year. So low rate with skyrocketing insurance (taxes lesser) burden, perhaps rising annually? Then the lower rate on the larger asset for us might mean, it's time to bail and downsize. Now if the house keeps appreciating. Then those escrow expenses don't seem as bad, but still even 5% annual increases in taxes and insurance weren't in the envisioned future budgetary plan. I think rising insurance costs are going to be something that going forward is going to have a greater influence on the RE market in general. Just one more suck on affordability. Hell I will be having to do deals until they put me in the grave, just to keep up with my increased insurance costs. SO - for you guys writing mortgages, are you seeing a rise in insurance costs, when you doing your qualifying due diligence as a percentage of costs? Just curious. Or does USAA just hate me... 😉 -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Think of all the folks that should have closed at 7.05% over the last few weeks. Instead they were (irrationally in my mind) waiting for rates to fall. A lot of folks in the Mortgage industry also thought rates would fall. So the folks writing the mortgages, and the folks taking them on both had forward looking optimism on rates falling back to prior levels. The sooner folks start selling the lows 7's as the best you may see for several years, and that the best bet is to buy now, perception is reality. The low rates are not coming back. Unless the economy tanks, and that's a whole different set of problems for RE. But I would be selling to prospective buyers is that homestead price inflation has historically overrun the cost of financing. No guarantee, but that's what history says longer term. That's why so many folks can do cash out refi's a few years down the road. But you may look back and that 7.125% rates were something that you wish you could get in July... -
Road trip stop question (I-10 drive of misery)
horn4life replied to texasdago's topic in Food and Travel
You are going to wish you pulled over sooner. That drive around the horn to the Panhandle is a monotonous mofo with all the pine trees. Pensacola might have been my choice. HaHa- I remember a La Quinta on the bay at I-10 and Scenic Highway that might have been the culprit. I drive pretty fast, and a couple years ago, average 71.5 mph (Including stops!!!) on a trip from Destin to Austin. If I could only convince the entire world that the left last is THE FUCKING PASSING LANE, I could really fly... -
well then... I just can't help myself...
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I told my wife to reach out to a friend of her mother's who has a 2/2? (maybe 3/2) in an small condo complex we looked at buying a unit in years ago as a starter. Almost all those units are two story, but they all have a large dining/living area that would be big enough to have large meals. Main thing is it's a single story, with two car garage! Perfect for downsize and very close to where we live now. A move to that place might be the one where we would rent our current home, and make the downsize. OR just sell, and take the gain tax free. And to be honest... the wall noise won't be an issue as you go deaf... 😉 But yes something to be able to lock and leave without a lot of upkeep if we are traveling.
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