
horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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Good to see a quick reaction from those that fucking hate America. Go fuck yourself. Of gag on mine BJ Johnson.
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I am having severe FOMO on having sold $50 UVIX calls for $5.80 for about half my holdings. Trying to be conservative and insure at least some profits. Usually I try to take half of things that have super steep run ups and sell out of the money calls for that half, to create some income, of 10% plus on that run up. Pull backs let me keep that 10%. Or close out and take it and be happy. I should be selling calls on half of the remaining half after another $19 run up. But I am trying to see what is going to happen to blunt a further blow to the markets on Monday. Jim Cramer had some very dark shit to say this morning and basically said there was not anything he could tell anyone to buy right now. He mentioned he was all cash in 1987, on Black Monday. Cut 401K stock exposure to 15% as a just in case. I am just trying to see how I/we are going to find a lot of good news this weekend. I don't see headlines of Trump blinks, or Trump retreats on tariffs. Do You? So where are my buyers coming from? Where is the good news going to come from? Perhaps the cure would be a Sunday TV blitz of Miller, Bessent and Ludwick explaining how genius the policy is? So UVIX is where I am gonna live at least until Monday. PS - how many trillion market cap has thus far been liberated here at the close?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Unfortunately rates are falling in the exact manner I said the would, if they did. Apparently a 100 point decrease in the Dow roughly translates into a 1 basis point decrease in the 10 year. -
Just grab a bunch of towels and soak the blood up off the street...
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So sell everything now? And don't come back in until rates are down?
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Well I guess we can all agree that this year has been a very, very, very good year for Comrade Putin....
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Since China put on a tariff, there has to be a response of a higher tariff from Trump. Right? That's was the threat at the outset. Correct? That was what Bessent was saying. I know a few folks that work at Apple and a good buddy has more than a million in Apple stock. Watching a "safe haven" tech stock like Apple erode is heartbreaking. It's not like you can flip a supply chain in a day!?!? The bad news is Trump would rather see the Dow shed another 2, 4, 5 or 10,000 points... rather than admit he made a mistake. And that is what is truly terrifying to me.
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Yeah - at 5 am dow down 580, by 5:30 it was pushing down 800, at roughly 6 am. right at 1100 down... So yeah bloodbath.
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Let me explain something. And this is very fucking simple. The historical models and charts do not apply. Period. Once you understand that you will realize that the market crash today was not a big deal to this White House. What would have been a HUGE fuckng deal was if Trump had given his speech before closing and you could see the markets falling. That would was the only actual concern about anything yesterday. And if you think you can plug that kind of psychosis into some stock charts, you are as fucking looney as our President. So please, please , please... stop putting up historical charts that do not have any factoring in of the stupidity we are inflicting purposefully on ourselves.
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Yeah. But for me the cool thing about this correction is it was entirely made by one man, after hours yesterday. And THAT is what makes it not normal. Can you really not see this? The fantastic fucking thng for me is that this was very easy to see coming. You can make a shit ton of money in this environment. It's just not betting long right now. Predictable tariff stupidity. My UVIX is up 40% today for example. While market moves and corrections are indeed normal. This was the proud work of a man, and THAT is NOT fucking normal. While it would make me a killing, I just pray this push downward is at least somewhat muted in Asia and Europe tomorrow. If not, that could roll back around and cascade more downward pressure into US markets for another dose of US Economy the game Friday morning... Normal... wow...
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
nice humble brag... -
The good news is this morning you will have Howard Lutnick explaining how marvelous this all is on CNBC. I am checking to see if Scott Bessent is going to go on Bloomberg. Last time Lutnick and Bessent did the rounds to calm markets I made some good coin on my UVIX. Those two just non-sensical stuff, that leaves the listener less rather than more confident. So is 1200 down on the Dow premarket today's bottom? Or does do we have further negative downward momentum. Have all the sellers bailed pre-market and the buyers are going to roll in? Listening to Jim Cramer last night he was showing an interesting chart saying that a lot of the options have a ton of volatility though this Friday and calm down going into next week. So maybe this week will be a bottom? Who the hell can predict anything at this point. Bessent explaining yesterday how other countries should just take in the tariffs and not retaliate. That utterance shows the complete lack of understanding on how tariffs have worked all though history. One tariff begets another tariff, which hurts both economies. Just basic fucking Economics.
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Apparently "Liberation Day" did give achieve one goal, it liberated a lot of those captive 401K dollars that you have been stacking the last few years, freedom! Those dollars are now free to leave the confines of your 401K and brokerage accounts...
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The cool thing is, normally the freshmen business majors are bored shitless with ECO101. As normally you have to look at how policy or economic pressures influence economies and indirectly stock prices. What might have normally taken several years of policy change to influence and economy now has been compressed into two months a semester. It would be fascinating to hear the arguments presented by freshmen as to what the economic impact may be? Just to hear as freshmen what their views are. Do they think that historical data regarding stumping economic growth is still the most likely outcome? The thing that is dumb to me, is that I understand the goals of the administration and how to get there. But from a logistics standpoint how does a CEO of any US company with a multi-million diversified supply chain know what is the smart thing to do? And how to do it in several weeks? Impossible. Assuming of course the policy does not reverse the moment you make a decision? To me it would be fun to be a freshman again, and argue what path you think different aspects of the economy might take. I had a good day after hours today, because of ECO101. HA! had to look it up because ECO 101 did not sound right, ECO 301... Forgot about the credit hour prefix. I would be very curious to hear if any freshmen thought there would not be large retaliatory tariffs?
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The only reasaon Trump did not announce this during market hours was because of...theatrics. Because seeing the market tank as Trump bloviates is too fucking easy a Campaign Ad for the Dems. Like I said, I only wish I had more money to bet against this administrations 1890's policies. I was shaking my head today as I saw the selloff turn into a positive day. And who knows, the same folks that shot Newsmax to the moon .Would have been a lot more fun for me to see the market tank as Trump spoke, but when you are playing US Economy the Game, the optics are more important than the substance. Listening to Kudlow (which I don't watch because of the lack of facts) it was fun to watch the stages of grief. Right now it's denial, with Steve Forbes moving onto anger... Tomorrow will be interesting
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I think there is one thing the Aggies really, really underestimate. That is that no matter how big your salary, you have to move your family and live in fucking College Station. THAT is what made Maryland so attractive to Buzz! Not living in a shit hole, is very, very attractive to most folks.
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Newsmax tells me how hard the market is going to crash. Blind enthusiasm for a stock like that sort of explains to me why the norms of the market are not applying. There is still a huge political enthusiasm in the market. I only wish I had more money to bet against it.
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Dallas Cowboys 2024 Season Thread -- Jerrah the Asshat Rides Again
horn4life replied to Patrick Bateman's topic in Football
I don't have a comment. I just came here to laugh! -
$101.95 PREMARKET. Well, shows you how many retail investors are just waiting to get fleeced...
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Not if you bought NewsMax on this mornings issue! And who said there wasn't a Trump trade anymore! NMAX price at 10:45 AM $50.08, Up+40.08. or a nice little 400.80% uptick for the day. If only there were options... 😉 or bought while I was typing.. well two minutes later up to $59.25...
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
And that is also why one of the time honored phrases of value in real estate is, "Location, location, location!" -
Guess I was free associating diamonds and gold. But I bet some of his friends call him diamond... 😉 On thing I hadn't really thought about regarding tariffs wil be the effect on auto insurance. insurance and housing have been some of the stickiest and worst drags on disposable income. If the replacement parts now cost 25% more, what percentage of that cost is factored into your monthly premium? I would assume the actual cost of parts is a fairly large component of the policy coverage? Will large used car parts dealers (which Insurance uses a lot) bump their prices to match new parts costs increases? Or not take that profit margin until they are forced to? 😉 If folks stop buying new cars, that will even further push up demand for a finite number of used car parts. Which all brings me to a stock that I can potentially take interest in betting on rising. MP is the other one I have a small taste of right now. LKQ - up 1.84% this last week, and .46% on Friday's bloodbath. WARNING - I have not done a lick of research on the stock beyond what I just searched for as I thought about used car parts. Anyhow - if it when up on Friday I am going to add it to my watch list. Could be completely unsound financially, but maybe worth taking a glance at? Anyhow there will certainly be pressure on auto insurers to increase their premiums, to cover the inflated costs of replacement parts.
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Jamie Diamond brought back about 4$ billion recently . If you have a 10% tariff on a commodity or a 20% tariff on a commodity, then the cost of that commodity goes up 10 ro 20%. Diamond and J.P. Morgan think it's smarter to have your gold delivered for the cost of shipping. Rather than the cost of shipping, plus 10 or 20% in a month. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/01/jpmorgan-gold-bullion-trump-tariffs. Article is a month old. If we are lucky...
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You know when you sit back and think about it we have sort of dodged a bullet. If not for the massive level of incompetence, we were very, very, very lucky some dumbass add Jeffrey Goldberg to the INCREDIBLY FUCKING STUPID group chat. If not, the only folks that would know what a fucking security risks these dumbasses are, would be Russia and China. A billion dollars says our Russian Agent DNI appointee, was on her private fucking phone. Anybody want to bet otherwise.
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Hell I am the point where I am just hoping we have elections in two years. Right now I could completely see a GOP congress in lock step postpone the Federal Elections because of some Declaration of Emergency. I hope like fuck I am wrong, but tell me what GOP congressman or Senator would stand up and say no? They would actually say... yeah... if we can ever get past this emergency, we will not only have elections but President Trump will release his health and tax records! If we are just patient... a few more years...
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