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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Also this. If it's 4th and goal from the 3-4, I think he kicks it and that's a more defensible decision. Baxter's second effort got you a couple feet from the goal line and completely changed the calculus.
  2. The solution isn't pivoting to the clearly inferior option in terms of maximizing win probability. It's not being so shitty at setting your team up for success in that situation. Also, no, losing 14-12 does not feel any different than losing 14-7. That is just aggy grade cope.
  3. I don't know. They obviously have things to improve on. They were also pretty clearly calling a very conservative game, especially after going up1 4-0 but even before then. Once Texas couldn't answer their first TD I think it was as obvious to them as it was to anyone watching the game that they were going to win so long as they didn't give Texas anything on a silver platter. If we can shrug off what Arch just put out there as nerves and be confident he'll improve then I see no reason Ohio State should be particularly concerned.
  4. This is a pointless argument. Sark is the OC and supposed QB guru. Sark took an active role in the recruitment of Arch Manning. The quality of the QB play isn't an excuse for him, it's supposed to be the differentiator.
  5. Playing Ohio State week 1 was fun. We should continue these games whether they're week 1, 2, whatever. Blacklisting opening weekend because we showed up with a QB that looked like you dropped a high schooler in the shoe for most of the game would be charmin soft. We should just be better next time.
  6. Oh no, not female cheerleaders!
  7. How could we forget when it's exactly what we watched today?
  8. I haven't even gotten a chance to watch and yet I can confidently say this is wrong lol Stop using Heisman and Arch in the same sentence unless it's a joke. Let's just hope he doesn't cost us games outright in Gainesville and Dallas.
  9. I guess you could make the argument with a serious face if you lack a 6th grade level grasp of probability.
  10. The failed 4th down on the first drive would have been a 60 yard kick. Texas then had a 4th and goal from the 1 in Q3 down 7-0 and a 4th and 3 at the 9 down 14-0 in Q4. None of these are the right place to kick a FG.
  11. What? It was in fact our one chance to get 6 points for gaining one yard, and you literally cannot get better value than that in football.
  12. Wrong, again. Points are at a premium. You'll never have a better chance at a TD again and the downside of OSU getting the ball at their own 1 is negligible. Go for the TD. The cost/benefit and impact on win probability is really, really clear cut.
  13. This is the only 4th down go/no go decision that should be scrutinized. It worked out, so it'll be forgotten, but turning the ball over to OSU on your own 35 is flirting with disaster and a new set of downs at your own 35 is not at all worth that risk even if you feel good about it.
  14. A touchdown ties the game and significantly increases your win probability. Kicking a FG, still needing a TD, and giving OSU the ball in standard field position vs. turning it over at the 1 is a negligible difference. Don't be stupid.
  15. Oh for god's sake, we are not going with this, are we?
  16. A FG over going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 would have been deadpanned as a soft move and rightfully so. You will never be offered a better deal than 6 points at the cost of 1 yard. That Texas's offense had struggled to that point isn't an argument to kick the FG. It's an argument to take that chance because your odds of getting that kind of scoring opportunity again are slim to none. Texas knew this. Ohio State knew this. Ohio State converted on 4th and goal from the 1 and Texas didn't, and that was the margin. FGs would not have changed that. I don't even know what other situation this could be applied to. If you're seriously advocating trotting out a college kicker for a 60 yard field goal on 4th and 2, you are an idiot. If you're seriously arguing for kicking a FG down 14-0 in Q4, you are an idiot.
  17. Bama is 4-5 in their last nine games against FBS competition. So, you know, it could be worse.
  18. I didn't expect him to be elite, I just didn't expect Tyrone Swoopes.
  19. I'm not really a believer. That's not to be interpreted as calling for his job or anything insane like that. He's executed a full gut rehab and raised the floor dramatically. Texas is a legit top 5 program in the sport right now. He deserves the opportunity to keep taking cracks at hardware for a decade-plus as far as I'm concerned, so long as the bottom doesn't fall out. I personally don't think he'll get there though. As great as a program builder as he's been he's a pretty mediocre game day football coach and winning a national championship means ripping off three or four straight against the best talent and coaching in CFB. He's way too inconsistent in these types of games for me to feel strongly that he can get that done. But, again, he deserves the opportunity to prove me wrong for a long time. Sure did after we hired him originally. Co-signed.
  20. This is easy to say in hindsight but I honestly believe the decisions to go for it were warranted in all but one instance - doing so at your own 35 or whatever on the first drive of the game, with a great punter, is kind of insane. All the others I think going for it was the right call. The actual play calls, maybe a different story. But especially the 4th and goal, you rarely get a better deal than 7 points for 1 yard and there was absolutely no guarantee the Texas offense would get that kind of scoring opportunity again.
  21. Then this team will be going 10-2 or 9-3, then 9-3 or 8-4... I don't think the sky is falling. There is a month to improve before we play another competitive football game (if SJSU, UTEP, or Sam Houston frustrate Texas to any degree then just check out on the season). The defense appears to be as advertised and we have a weapon of a punter. It looks like we can run the ball to some degree. That sets a high floor. I think the majority of the schedule is just not going to be able to hang with Texas in the trenches. We don't need the passing game to carry the offense but today it wasn't a credible threat. Any defense worth a shit is going to make Texas run over heavy boxes or beat them throwing the ball going forward, though, and it's not at all clear to me Texas is going to be able to face that from the 4-5 capable defenses on the schedule and not take a couple more Ls. I came into the year thinking that 9-3 and on the CFB bubble was probably the floor for the team but that feels more like the ceiling now. That's not a 2010 grade meltdown or anything, but an adjustment of expectations based on the offensive deficiency to start the year. And frankly, I can live with that if it looks like the offense is improving and we beat OU and aggy again. I've been consistent in thinking next year is the year. Yeah, these are alarming. I'd never have criticized Arch Manning for having a weak arm or super sloppy mechanics but he was out there with, at times, the same dead feet and sidearmed throws that would get Ewers in trouble. He was as inaccurate as I've seen a Texas QB in a while (Ewers 2022 vs OSU or TCU come to mind), short on several throws (including his INT). He had some sail on him for good measure. Arch displayed issues with timing or accuracy at the margins in the short and intermediate game last year. A throw like the terrible 3rd and 5 miss to Wingo comes to mind. That doesn't seem to have improved so I wouldn't count on it going forward. Clearly that didn't get fixed and if it didn't get fixed in a full offseason and camp it's probably going to linger as an issue throughout the season. I have to think he will be better mechanically and not as woefully inaccurate though, particularly with the underthrows. The book is not yet written on Arch Manning and I think we can still more or less chalk today up to nerves/pressure, so I'm certainly not jumping to conclusions, but QB coaching is starting to be an eyebrow raiser between the lack of development from Ewers between years two and three (and really never making progress in the vertical passing game) and the stunningly terrible season debut from Arch. Eh, sort of disagree here. I mean, obviously there is no Worthy, Mitchell, Golden, etc. I like the RB room. Endries played well. WR isn't what it's been but the primary issue in the passing game was the QB. Wingo is a freak athlete, Livingstone's TD is a really nice play, we know Moore is solid. Mosely will hopefully get healthy and the freshmen can come on with time. There's enough there if you've got the QB play and the running game. Today they were simply not given a chance to make plays.
  22. That was, uh, wow. Imagine being told Texas would hold Ohio State to 200 yards and 14 points, and get completely dog-walked. It's never quite as good or as bad as it seems and it's a long season. We have a month to clean whatever that was up so we can bring a competitive offense into league play. The defense appears to be more or less as advertised and should keep us in games. It will obviously be overshadowed by the passing game struggles but the run game and offensive line looked pretty good in the context, though I want to rewatch. All is not lost. Stunning incompetence in the passing game and again with red zone play calls though. Baffling offensive coaching fail by Sark. A lot of what we saw was correctable, but there is so much to clean up that it makes me doubt it can be done by October. I'm hopeful the defense (appears as advertised) 9-3 is feeling more like the ceiling than the floor today, but maybe that ends up an overreaction. lol at Livingstone not only scoring but getting the only TD, and taking the CB for an absolute ride in the process. CTJ loved that I'm sure.
  23. I want to rewatch at some point with a level head and more focus on the O line but I thought they settled in okay. I don't think they were as bad as Arch and Sark made them look. I think the running game has potential this year.
  24. I am rooting for Auburn, not because of any stupid SEC comradery or loyalty, but because the world would be a better place if Baylor ceased to exist as an institution. Unfortunately I expected Auburn to be atrocious and have not seen anything to dissuade me, so I figure this will be over by the middle of the third quarter.
  25. There's a wildfire up here burning in Olympic National Forest and parts of Olympic National Park. It's not big, but it's burning in a very inaccessible area (steep slopes, lack of roads, etc.) with ample fuel that makes it difficult to contain. Despite its relatively small size it's a big smoke producer because of said fuel, so it's been an air quality issue for the Olympic Peninsula and, for a few brief instances, the Seattle-Tacoma metro. It is only 13% contained despite starting fourth of July weekend, and only that high because there was an unseasonably large rain event a week or two ago (despite this, it's been a rather dry spring and summer and the entire region is in a drought). The firefighters out there are up against it to protect structures, park infrastructure, and find ways to contain a very difficult fire. Why do I mention this? Because ICE/CPB/BLM determined it was a good idea to sideline contracted fire crews to line them up, check for papers, and in fact arrest two wildland firefighters working to contain a fire on federal land. They did so in a remote area with a lack of cell service or other telecom infrastructure, so I highly doubt they were even able to get in touch with their families. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/climate-lab/federal-agents-arrest-firefighters-working-on-wa-wildfire/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/climate-lab/border-patrol-firefighters-arrested-at-bear-gulch-fire-illegally-entered-u-s/ It's not just that the cruelty is a plus, or part of the plan. It is the only point. There is no other objective for these people.
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