Joe Biden was the right man for the moment in 2020 and was on track to easily be the best president of my lifetime for the first half of his term.
He may still be at least domestically, we're going to have to see what the Republicans do to his platform over the next couple of years and what the long term impact of the surviving pieces is (I think a surprising amount of the IRA is going to remain intact). Things pretty clearly came off the rails in 2023 though, and between that and his age he was absolutely the wrong man for the moment in 2024. His handling of the war in Gaza and lack of coherent immigration policy that ultimately led to a capitulation to Trumpist policy, both of which came to a head in the final year and change, is a stain on his legacy and on our country.
Do I think Democrats would have won if he stepped aside earlier? I honestly don't know. Post-COVID inflation has taken out an impressive volume of political incumbents. But had he announced his intention to step aside after a strong showing in the midterms the entire race would, or at least could have been reframed in a way Harris just never had a chance to accomplish given the hand she was dealt.
The combo of his age and the stresses of the presidency has obviously been rough on him. Hearing him speak now vs the 2020 election, the difference is stark. I wish him a happy and healthy retirement surrounded by family, but I fear we're going to be wondering what could have been for a long time.