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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Yeah, I take that Newsmax reporter with a massive grain of salt.
  2. I tend to think the vast majority of those voters are voting blue no matter who. By definition, the anti-Trump vote is driven by...Trump, not the other guy/gal. Some, primarily men, will likely break off due to race and/or gender. I doubt you ultimately see a major white woman defection. This is a very different country for women than it was 8 years ago, as youl obviously well know, and the electorate has changed. The entire 18-25 cohort couldn't even vote in 2016. Most under 30's couldn't or didn't. Millions of older voters have died since then. Less white, on balance. There has not been a decades-long coordinated right wing media onslaught building hatred of Kamala Harris nationally like there was for Hillary Clinton.
  3. This would be such a fucking mess. Biden should absolutely not resign though. It is dumb to even float that.
  4. There's a legitimate argument to be made that Kamala Harris is a net negative in the blue wall states as things currently stand, and her success would rest on getting a decisive victory among those currently undecided/considering not voting/parking protest votes with West or Stein, and that doing so as a quasi-incumbent would be difficult. Her odds are still long, but there's at least upside. It is really hard to imagine undecides breaking for Biden in a meaningful way at this point.
  5. I don't know how anyone could bemoan the Democratic Party's handling of this entire saga and expect a brokered convention to be anything but an enormous mess at the same time.
  6. Jesus. Yes, that's the point, the lack of national name recognition for Shapiro is not as big of a deal because he is well known and liked in Pennsylvania. You may have heard that the results in PA are somewhat important in this election given the Electoral College implications. To the extent that a VP moves the needle, and I don't think it's very much, that is a value add over the Governor of KY who is a JAG in the minds of undecided voters in swing states. I tend to agree. The Biden administration has been the most progressive in my lifetime and governed in a much more progressive manner than I, and I think most of the progressive wing of the party, expected. I think this is why the progressive wing of the party is pretty quiet when it comes to calling for him to go. That and they mostly represent relatively safe seats with little incentive to participate in this spectacle at all. Yeah I remember there being a bit of a "will he or won't he" speculation in political circles and he has said himself on several occasions that he did not feel ready or able to mount a successful campaign. A bit of irony really given the relative lack of self awareness now.
  7. The right wing media appluads your ability to quote completely out of context. What I said was, "Shaprio has high name recognition and approval in a must-have state for Democrats." Do you live in PA? Uh, gonna need to show your work on a VP moving a state 10 points lol
  8. Newsom's profile as a rich, California limousine liberal won't play well in the midwest and Warnock has maybe the highest value over replacement level of any US Senator. Brian Kemp would also appoint his replacement, which would guarantee a Republican Senate in 2025. I think Warnock would be a great POTUS candidate someday if he has that aspiration. He is far too valuable in the Senate to ask him to walk the plank as the VP on a longshot ticket. Complete nonstarter strategically. See above and the same is true for Mark Kelly, though at lease a Democrat would be appointed to replace him. Too valuable in his Senate seat though. He is well liked in one of the closest split states in the union. There are other compelling choices without that downside. The fuck does Andy Beshear bring to the ticket? I promise you 75% of America has no idea who that is. Shaprio has high name recognition and approval in a must-have state for Democrats. I might go with a Roy Cooper because he's term limited anyway and also from a competitive state (a black POTUS candidate and Roy Cooper might actually put NC and to a lesser extent GA back in play). But to the extent that a VP can add something (generally not much), Shaprio checks that box. This is the one person who can get all rank and file Democratic voters in line. Pelosi can whip the elected officials but voters don't care.
  9. I mean this is basically dollars on sale for 86 cents. With the existing timetable there is zero chance of a replacement outside of Harris.
  10. Everyone on about how he is going to help in the blue wall states as if being a Senator from Ohio with an OSU degree is not going to cost the Trump/Vance ticket a full point in Michigan lol
  11. PlanB in her breakfast is going to be banned soon tho
  12. A real housewife of Pensacola, I think?
  13. There's obviously a lot of Christofascist bullshit in that document but this one managed to stand out: "the average length of same-sex marriages is half that of heterosexual marriages" Do we think there might be some explanation for that other than inherently "higher levels of instability"? I mean, these people are insulting the intelligence of the American public by having their manifesto publicly accessible, and they are on their way to being proven right for doing so.
  14. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/upshot/kamala-harris-biden-poll.html There's not a lot of data out there but the recent NYT poll of PA and VA does show some senior and white non-college movement toward Trump when Biden is replaced with Harris. No movement among men, but given Harris's gain among minority and younger voters it probably implies at least some defection among white men, particularly older ones and non-educated ones. These are likely the voters being referred to. That said it's worth noting that this poll does have Harris performing a couple points better overall. Sample size of one poll, though.
  15. lol the same thread basically gets repeated when Texas is at or near the top of the list in recent years. I don't really have anything to add beyond what I've posted in previous versions but it is funny to see it relitigated.
  16. This is at the root of my previous post on Harris, really. I'd expect older/whiter voters currently keeping Biden in at least striking distance would see some shifts to not voting or to Trump if a black woman is on the ticket. The be clear, I don't think the potential of racism influencing a small portion of the electorate is a reason to not go with the higher upside candidate; but it would give me pause when it comes to handicapping her chances at victory. On the topic of race, Split Ticket just dropped an interesting poll and analysis of black voters in swing states: https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/17/we-polled-black-voters-heres-what-we-found/
  17. There is a slight caveat to this - there's a decent amount of polling data that shows Biden's support has held up better with older and whiter voters. I haven't seen enough polling on Harris to say but it stands to reason she could be at a net neutral and maybe giving some ground in the EC because she'd shed support from white and/or seniors while maybe bringing some youths and POC, particularly black voters, back into the fold. PA, MI, and WI are all older/whiter than the broader electorate, hence Harris potentially losing a small slice of current Biden supporters and expanding the structural EC deficit. I still think I'd give her the shot because she also presumably gets the previously undecided/"double haters" to give Democrats a second look, and a decisive win there actually gives you a competitive chance to get across the finish line.
  18. Upper deck is better at the Cotton Bowl anyway. I got mine the other day. Feels like it's earlier than usual this year.
  19. This is where I think legitimate alarm crosses the line into typical Democratic handwringing. Senate candidates have been and continue to outperform Biden in polls, often significantly. Democrats Trump is not a beloved figure that is going to have super strong coattails; his record is just the opposite. The Democrats mathematically cannot win the Senate without winning the presidency anyway. Democrats have been seeing increased support in the generic House ballot and could benefit from a likely popular desire to have a check on Trump. Biden sinking is obviously not good for downballot Dems, but it's not apocalyptic. And as a segway, Democrats should be absolutely plowing money into the House right now. They have to flip it. A Trump presidency is bad anyway and honestly thy can inflict the majority of their planned damage to this country through executive action and judicial confirmations in the Senate. But a trifecta is the actual end of democracy scenario.
  20. I mean the path is whatever the DNC/Democratic Party wants it to be. It's not like this requires passing legislation. They can do what they want. If 100% of the party, or close enough to it, were unified around replacing Biden as the nominee they would do so. There does not appear to be anything approaching broad consensus on taking action. That is the hurdle.
  21. The collective IQ in this entire scene is astonishingly low.
  22. He's not reading wrong, he is a disingenuous concern troll.
  23. I mean given his track record on the topic it is hardly a leap of logic. Simple cause and effect really. Observing and understanding that is different from being happy about it. The positions of... "I wish this never happened. Political violence is terrible for the country, an escalation like this is tragic and will only lead to more and more violence and toxicity, where more and more innocent people are hurt or killed." and... "Trump has been calling for violence to be carried out against political opponents and unsympathetic to say the least when it has happened throughout the entirety of his political career. I am not glad it happened but do not feel any personal sympathy for him." ... are not mutually exclusive.
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