Everything posted by gmr548
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Silver & co. were pretty consistent in 2016 in saying a 70-whatever percent chance of a Clinton victory in their model is not at all a sure thing and a Trump win was very plausible. They were basically the only outlet that wasn't treating the election as a foregone conclusion and the only modelers that didn't have Clinton at like 95%. Texas was favored against OU and UW and was an underdog against Alabama. Play those games again in the same settings and the same teams would be favored (though it would be more like Alabama -2 or -3 than -7 or whatever it was). Clinton was favored for a reason but underdogs win sometimes. As usual, wrong. Democrats have absolutely been overperforming in low turnout elections since the start of the Trump era, because college educated voters do make up a greater portion of the electorate in midterms and especially special elections, and those voters have shifted notably toward Democrats. This is well documented. Olds do vote at higher rates. Disparities still exist along the typical lines - education, race, etc. - but controlling for all that, olds do still vote at higher rates. Always have.
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Seattle
Been off Surly for a while but my wife ended up accepting that job offer and started in late May. We hit the road out of Houston a month ago and are renting in Greenwood in North Seattle. Glad we went with this location because the neighborhood is great and wife's job, which has started off really well, is much more flexible in terms of remote work than initially expected. It's been a whirlwind making a cross country move on the quick and dirty side but we're starting to get settled in. Have some family and friends coming to visit over the next couple weeks so that will be nice. Eventually I need to join a basketball league and go to some networking/education events in my industry to get out and actually meet some new people. Have work travel to Texas in July so I'm sure I will get absolutely wrecked without any kind of usual heat acclimation.
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2024 Transfer Thread - The Pedantic Circlejerk
Might be older too
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immamac has permabanmed me against bob’s wishes. read this thread before it disappears.
Wait, okay, I'll bite; what's the issue with Jokic?
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The Texas Libertarian Party Slate of Candidates
Bad comp. Pretty sure cats have their humans domesticated, not the other way around.
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2024 State Flips Game.
This ignores demographic differences between states. The shifts that theoretically pull a GA or a NV into the R column may or may not have much of an impact in 80%+ white and much older states like WI, MI, and PA; and could even cause drift in the opposite direction. I think GA goes narrowly R this cycle. I think NV does too. I know @Js1 will roast me for that but the GOP has had some intermittent success in NV over the past decade, most recently a Governor's race in 2022, and the coalitions that delivered each state for Biden appear to have legitimate fractures. AZ is a complete wildcard. Fundamentally it's not far from NV but the prominence of abortion an the absolute toxicity of the state GOP bring it back into tossup category. Gallego is also a strong Senate candidate and his campaign could elevate Biden a bit. I don't see Trump finding 100k+ votes in MI or PA, even with the mess in Gaza. WI is one of the 2-3 legitimately 50-50 states in the country and could go either way, but Democrats there have been on a roll and have a generational opportunity at the state level. I think it will ultimately come down to WI and AZ. I think Biden needs both because Trump will put pressure on NE to go winner take all, the state level GOP will give in very late in the cycle and ram it through in a special session, and Maine will not have the ability or the appetite to respond in kind. Senate goes GOP 51-49 and the House is Democratic - not by a huge margin but more cushion than the GOP has now.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Your wife needs to keep an eye on her voter registration from now until the election.
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Commercial property insurance cost increases
It's an across the board phenomenon. Anecdotally, multifamily kinda sorta maybe seems to be moderating but it's too early to say with any confidence, and I wouldn't apply that claim nationally - sorry Gulf Coast, CA, etc.
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Let's talk about....incels
This is part of it for teenagers. A big thing for the older under 30s is that we're living in unprecedented times in terms of educational and professional opportunity for women. To be frank, women can have standards now and that hasn't been the case for most of human history. An able bodied young man who isn't an enormous prick and has a steady income will do fine. There not actuallythat many young men who clear all three of those bars.
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Joe Biden 2024 thread - Dark Brandon Where Art Thou?
I mean if you want to talk about broad appeal, is there a better broad description for this country than the bolded?
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Jay Hartzell is not out standard
- UT Pro-Palestine Protest Thread
Electorally elder Gen Xers have pretty consistently delivered the biggest margins for Republicans in recent years. Similar to how Millennials are overwhelmingly Democratic but you wouldn't know from in this chart, that independent bloc is full of consistent Republican voters.- UT Pro-Palestine Protest Thread
You are right, I crossed early and late in my mind. Should have said early Gen X'er (i.e. came of age under Reagan as opposed to Bush I or Clinton). Though as a whole Gen X is still the most conservative generation out there, for all the shit boomers get.- UT Pro-Palestine Protest Thread
He is career business/finance academic and a late Gen X'er (the most conservative generational cohort in the country) who came of age during the Reagan revolution. There was the whole working with Dan Patrick on the Liberty Institute bit - though given it didn't go anywhere it seems like he was just humoring the politicians who wanted to get involved in a flavor of the month crusade. I doubt he is some mouth breathing, election denying, texags dipshit and prior to this week has always seemed to handle himself professionally - not injecting politics into his job - at least from what I can tell as an unconnected observer. But simple demographic probability and his track record at UT suggest it's unlikely he is any kind of progressive.- UT Pro-Palestine Protest Thread
The only thing I have to add is that it is extremely weird to me that some of you are taking the same stance as Texags and not immediately gut checking.- Jay Hartzell is not out standard
The protesters are a bunch of 18-22 year olds and many of them were not even eligible to vote when Abbott was on the ballot for his third term in 2022. None of them wer eligible to vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 or Abbott in 2014 or 2018. Putting this on their & their cohort's voting record is a very weak argument.- Joe Biden 2024 thread - Dark Brandon Where Art Thou?
Crazy, I guess I have to vote for Trump now. Things are worse for MAGA than I realized if this is the best they can do.- UT Pro-Palestine Protest Thread
Maybe read your link before you post it next time.- UT Pro-Palestine Protest Thread
For Charles, sure. For Carlos, not so much.- UT Pro-Palestine Protest Thread
This state is full of and run by such soft fucking wannabee authoritarian snowflakes. Yeah, let's dispatch UTPD and fucking DPS riot cops for some students conducting an antiwar protest on campus. That's the kind of society we should strive to be. Jesus. I'm ashamed to be a UT alumni today. Really disappointed in Hartzell and university leadership. They're either spineless or on the wrong side and I'm not even sure which is worse.- Seattle
Huh. The more you know. For whatever reason Woodinville was farther east in my mind. Thanks for the correction,- Seattle
Edmonds would be sweet I just haven't seen anything in our sweet spot on the affordability/desirability spectrum. Seems like good quality rentals up there are expensive even by local standards and what's affordable is very old. Don't think we want to be so far out of the city as to be in Snohomish or Woodinville. Bothell and MLT on the radar though; SIL lives in Kirkland so being convenient to them is a plus. Cool with them in that they're irrelevant to a rental search lol. We're definitely going to rent for 9-12 months and go from there. Categorically cannot afford a SFH in Seattle or Edmonds. If we bought in Seattle it would definitely be the condo or townhouse route.- 2024 Transfer Thread - The Pedantic Circlejerk
Toia and Williams would be so fucking sick- Spring Game - 4/20/2024
Bruh put a trigger warning on this shit. Many memories.- Seattle
Well the position in Tacoma I mentioned before ultimately fell through but my wife has verbally accepted an offer that'll be officially based in Everett, but out in the field in Snohomish County regularly (hybrid so that would be 2-3x a week, at home for the rest). They're going through the whole reference/background check song and dance before producing the full written offer, so not quite official yet but it does look like we'll be moving up there in the next 4-6 weeks. Very excited but there's a lot to get done in the interim. Our initial inclination is to look for a place in north Seattle convenient to I-5 and rail. Greenwood, Maple Leaf, Northgate, Green Lake, Roosevelt, something like that. Any thoughts on whether that counter-commute is doable? Evidently there are some staff that live in north Seattle and say it's not bad. I definitely prefer an urban location like that but I work remotely, I'm not the one commuting. Honestly I could compromise on an inner ring suburban location like Shoreline or Mountlake Terrace as long as it's convenient to I-5 + the coming rail extension. I worry that commuting from North Seattle will suck for her despite it being a counter commute but my wife is pretty set on living in Seattle proper as a base to get to know the region better. - UT Pro-Palestine Protest Thread
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