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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. The narrative if Biden were to step back and not run for reelection would be a Democratic party in shambles, and all of the campaign/white house infrastructure built over the past four years ceases to matter. Democrats would be campaigning on Trump being such a threat to democracy that... an incumbent POTUS with < 4% unemployment won't even bother trying?
  2. Disagree, Biden should make a point to be out and about on the campaign trail both as a counter to the age/fitness piece and to tout investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy made possible by legislation he passed; many of which are located in purple states.
  3. They were considered losses by Trump by huge margins in public polling in both 2020 and 2016. My contention is that means fuck all.
  4. I mean, that's true of both of them. Against any other candidate he would be a liability but against Donald Trump it's a layup. I have little doubt Biden would be considered a decisive winner in public polls and in media analysis just as he was in 2020, but debates have been definitively proven to not matter at all anyway. They are poo flinging contests.
  5. Larry Hogan is running in MD. https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/02/09/congress/hogan-running-for-senate-00140681 Still probably a slight underdog in a solid blue state with Trump on the top of the ticket, but certainly puts a previously safe Democratic seat in play.
  6. D +20 in 2020 in favor of long term incumbent. Often unopposed before that. Ds have been crushing specials given turnout advantage among more educated voters, but losing an incumbent (I don't know the circumstances). Unless it's scandal or something dragging the Democrat down, I'd want to see them get to that 60-40 margin again, ideally better. Losing outright seems like it would be a disaster and barely on the table, and that tweet is just GOP doing election hype things.
  7. I mean yeah, that's what it was in 2020. It's pretty compelling. Trump was a disaster as President and will be worse a second time around. If Republicans hadn't been thoroughly cucked they would have this election in the bag, but that's their problem. The funny thing is that if one takes five minutes to look over the record and apply a bit of critical thinking Biden actually has an objectively good record - certainly better than what I expected - but that's typically too much to ask of the American public.
  8. TIL 45% of Democratic leaning adults are fucking morons.
  9. Perhaps the most irritating thing is the same kind of sourced accounts that painted a picture of terrifying incompetence in the Trump White House have quoted Republicans admitting Biden is plenty sharp in private settings; debt ceiling negotiations, for example. Biden has always been a public gaffe machine, now he's a little bit more of one because he's 109 years old. That's really all it is as far as I can tell.
  10. I know that and agree. But there's a difference between not tuning in and not knowing at this juncture that it is going to be Donald Trump. If you have any kind of polling or other data to prove me wrong I'd love to see it, because it would materially change my perspective.
  11. This was true two or three months ago but I simply don't buy it now, primaries and Trump legal proceedings have been headline news and covered with the context that Trump is the Republican nominee.
  12. lol turn off the fox news man, literally everything you listed ranges from exaggerated portrayals of a segment of gen z twitter (itself a very small segment of society) to outright fabrication
  13. Yeah, these. Biden is too old to be POTUS in a sane timeline and it does show. Now, it's stupid and extremely frustrating that Donald Trump - someone who is significantly lessmentally and physically fit to be POTUS, and by the way basically the same age - more or less gets a pass for far worse. But this stuff is going to stick.
  14. Being cucked by a tinpot dictator is a foundational piece of the Republican identity. Putin is just trying to make him feel at home in a far away land.
  15. I mean, you and the rest of the GOP base could have elevated a viable alternative that wasn't clearly inferior to a "sympathetic, well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory"... but you chose instead enroll as a card-carrying member of Cult 45, so here we are.
  16. And they are totally fine with burning down not just their cart but the entire block as long as no sandwiches get sold. That's the whole point.
  17. My brother in Christ, the GOP is rigging the propane tank at the sandwich cart to explode, and they are doing it in broad daylight.
  18. I'm pretty sure someone so cucked by Trump that they go dress up as Hitler and storm the Capitol doesn't have the first clue about anything sexual.
  19. Except it kind of was (on accident) because the GOP insider talking points coming out of 2012 were all about needing to be more inclusive, to appeal more to women, minorities, and young voters, things like that. Instead Trump did very much the opposite of that and won, but he completely hijacked the party. It wasn't where leadership was trying to go.
  20. What's the GOP's long game in PA? The state party has ben gutted, SEPA is the only growing part of the state, etc. I'm actually of the opinion that Trump represents the GOP high water mark in PA. MI and WI, yeah, I think they could ultimately trend right, particularly WI. Democrats have a lot of momentum in MI at least.
  21. Democrats could create a 14 EV swing and pick up 4 senate seats if they just found 250k progressive, outdoor-inclined youth from the west coast and northeast and just moved them to MT and WY. Give them sham jobs with the DNC or something.
  22. The ongoing realignment of American electoral politics is extremely fascinating, until you remember what's at stake lol. I agree with you on NC. It's been Lucy with the football for Dems in federal races many times for various reasons since Obama broke through, but Roy Cooper has won 2x, Democrats have won other competitive state level races, and you're right on the Demographics. It's not Florida level futile. I can definitely see it going the VA path where there is legacy Republican influence in the state government that is simply hard to root out, but becoming a steadily Democratic state federally.
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