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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. NC yes, OH no, but agree with the general sentiment. If the Democrats win FL they have already won NC, GA, AZ, and NV (which is game over already - they could lose WI-MI-PA and would still win). FL isn't going to tip the election for Democrats, it's the score to go up 17 with 2 minutes left.
  2. Mike Johnson was set to endorse but backed out because of pressure from Republican Senate campaign arm, McConnell, etc. Maybe Rosendale will play that up and the primary gets nasty.
  3. I think it's 100% the other way around. Preservation of abortion rights takes the issue off the table and gives otherwise socially moderate Ohio voters that maybe would have considered crossing over carte blanche to vote their worst impulses (and they are pretty bad in that part of the country) on immigration without fear of an abortion ban.
  4. Democrats have consistently kept the "somewhat disapproves" in the fold when up against MAGA candidates under Biden. That's pretty atypical historically speaking but obviously so is the entire situation right now. Maintaining that against the final MAGA boss is going to be the key, and that includes the young voters being discussed because a lot of them fall in that bucket.
  5. Oh cool we're in the Lobo/Cruiser/YGIFS Republican primary rant stage of the election cycle once again. Look, if you took every Democrat that voted in the 2022 Primary and had them vote for the second place Republican, Abbott goes to a runoff and wins, and Dan Patrick wins by over 250k votes. It's a stupid pipe dream. That's before considering that for those of us who don't live in aggystan exurbs or rural areas, the Democratic primary is functionally the general election at the local level. I'm not passing on that to tell people how edgy I am for voting in the GOP primary.
  6. I actually like Newsom more than I expected to when I've heard him in interviews and what not, but I do think the liberal elite Californian thing is going to be hard to shake. He'll just get painted as out of touch coming up in private school, dating a celeb, and because of the French Laundry thing during COVID. And to be fair I can see how that strikes a nerve. Whitmer, Warnock, and Shapiro stand out to me as the fastest rising stars with the brightest futures because of the states they can mobilize.
  7. It's the same shit with Cornyn. People think he's half decent because the point of reference is Cruz, but he is a piece of shit too.
  8. I am all for increasing the prestige of A&M by making it a legitimate vocational school
  9. I've never heard this guy talk but he has a very northern accent. He of all people railing against Biden on immigration while representing Fort Bend of all places is something. Of course Dan Patrick is spewing a bunch of nonsense; making bogus constitutional claims and making blanket statements that immigrants bring health issues and "most" of them are here to commit crimes, when immigrants are on average healthier and commit fewer crimes than native born Americans.
  10. Your track record on called shots like this is second only to Helobious and I now feel as bad about the election as I have this entire cycle.
  11. Someone's getting something to run on, that's for sure.
  12. I think the bill is bad policy and I am not losing any sleep over it not being passed. Republicans are also committing a huge political blunder with this whole saga and I am not losing any sleep over that either. They are passing up the chance to be able to claim they forced Biden/Democrats into doing something, and will now be painted as the party who dropped their own bill because Trump told them he wants to run on the issue. They've said the quiet part out loud and removed all pretense that they are anything but puppets for Trump's whims. The MAGA base will be as thrilled as ever but this is the first reminder of what I'm sure will be many for the small bloc of persuadable independents/moderates that these people are dysfunctional, cynical lunatics that cannot govern. The irony is that Republicans couldn't get this bill or a similar bill passed with a trifecta. It will be the best chance they have to enact anything like this. For one they simply aren't competent enough to get the party united behind a single bill and pass it on their own, and they also wouldn't get any Democratic support as opposition like they are now; no way it would get 60 votes in the Senate when Democrats have nothing to gain by making concessions. Best case scenario they'd have to walk the plank and kill the fillibuster.
  13. Having worked retail as a kid, frontline employees have always been instructed not to confront a thief. It's a safety issue and the corporations do not want to be liable to anything happening to either party.
  14. Imagine how bad it must have been for the Daily Mail to run with this
  15. I mistyped, meant to say 45k killed/missing and 100k wounded. My bad.
  16. I can tell that's fake only because the cadence of the voice changes subtly, but that's because I am very familiar with Abbott. It is so easy to bite on these things and they are only going to get better (worse).
  17. Uh the US had over 40k killed and 100k missing in Korea and 58k killed in Vietnam (I can't find a quick number on the wounded figure). But aside from that sure. Cynically you could also say current Ukraine policy is welfare for US defense contractors and that is probably true to the degree; I just think in this case the cynical and the right moves are not mutually exclusive.
  18. If the IRA pans out and actually reduces US GHG emissions by 40% by 2030 it's the most cost effective legislation in the history of the nation.
  19. Biden doesn't have a problem with black voters; he has a problem with low info voters, black and otherwise.
  20. The border is such a brutal war zone that they have time to baptize white girls
  21. The headline/summary would be, in no particular order: COVID Vaccine Rollout - varied by state and to be fair you have to give the Trump admin credit for development and plans being laid out; but available to anyone who wanted one, on demand, for free, by mid-2021. ARPA - $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus/domestic investment (local governments, housing, transportation, education, etc) package. Probably juiced inflation to a degree but we would be in a much worse longer term economic situation. CHIPS Act - $280 billion investment in onshoring semiconductor R&D and manufacturing. Huge returns so far in producing business investments that will translate to quality jobs, strengthen supply chains, and materially improve national security. Infrastructure Bill - $550 billion of investment over a decade, largest infrastructure investment in generations. IRA - $900 billion; at the end of the day the name is pandering and this is primarily an energy/climate law. It has spurred unprecedented investment in the energy transition. This could end up being by far the most impactful product of this administration but also the hardest to evaluate in the moment. Impact on inflation is likely negligible but it is projected to reduce the deficit, potentially by a significant amount. PACT Act - $800 billion investment in healthcare and services for veterans exposed to toxic materials. This was the bill the Senate GOP had to be shamed to pass, think the Jon Stewart campaign around burn pits and all that. Ukraine - Uniting NATO, adding Finland and now Sweden; and weakening and embarrassing Russia with zero involvement from American personnel. And most recently came to the table on a border compromise, which frankly I as a progressive think is a bad deal, but exposed the Republicans for the sick, cynical fucks they are.
  22. I actually don't. I acknowledge that what @Js1 said about Democrats' track record there is true to a degree but it's less extreme than NV. Cal Cunningham is a Senator right now if he doesn't have an extramarital affair. They have a popular, two-term Democratic governor who will be actively campaigning for his replacement. The state has been a consistent national leader in terms of in-migration, much of it from the NE and its growth industries are bringing in highly educated workers. I don't think it's a sure thing to flip by any means but it's on the table and it's very important to the GOP in a close election. If Democrats win NC they are also winning GA, if that happens the GOP could feasibly win WI-MI-PA and still lose the election if Democrats hold NV and AZ in the southwest. There just aren't a lot of reasonable GOP paths to victory without NC. For that reason alone you make the investment.
  23. And for Florida, that's a plus for opponents.
  24. Like the context of a kicker setting up a tee at the goal line? Everyone in the video is screwing around, relax.
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