Rain Timeline From Texas Storm Chasers David Reimer.
Texas Weather
Flash Flood Threat Escalates Across Central Texas Overnight
By David Reimer
June 11, 2025
Flash flood risk map for Texas on June 11, 2025 evening, showing a moderate risk of flash flooding across Central Texas including Waco, Austin, Killeen, and College Station through Thursday morning.
The flash flood threat continues to increase across portions of Central Texas as we head through tonight into Thursday morning. The National Weather Service has issued a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall, now extending from Waco, Killeen, and Austin southward into the San Antonio metro area, based on the latest observational trends and high-resolution model guidance.
Flash flood risk map for Texas on June 11, 2025 evening, showing a moderate risk of flash flooding across Central Texas including Waco, Austin, Killeen, and College Station through Thursday morning.
Flash flood outlook update for Wednesday evening, June 11th, 2025, highlights continued moderate flood risk across Central Texas with storms expected to persist overnight into Thursday morning.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop and train across the same areas tonight, creating a dangerous flash flood setup. The 0Z run of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows an increasingly concerning scenario unfolding:
Updated Timeline (Based on 0Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity)
Animated HRRR simulated radar showing forecast storms across Central Texas on June 11-12, 2025, with multiple rounds of rain and potential flash flooding overnight.
Click IMG to view animation. HRRR simulated radar loop for Wednesday night, June 11th into early Thursday, June 12th, showing continued storms across Central Texas with ongoing flash flood risk.
7 PM – 10 PM:
Scattered thunderstorms initiate across the Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, and parts of Central Texas. Storms may initially be isolated but capable of heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty winds. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out.
10 PM – 1 AM:
Storms consolidate and move southeast into the I-35 corridor, impacting areas from Waco to Austin and San Antonio. Storms begin to train, dumping multiple rounds of torrential rain.
1 AM – 5 AM:
The flash flood risk peaks overnight as heavy rain bands repeatedly impact the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. The HRRR suggests rainfall rates may exceed 1-3 inches per hour, with total accumulations of 5-8 inches possible in localized areas.
5 AM – 8 AM:
Heavy rainfall shifts southeast toward the coastal plain, with continued flooding possible near Houston, Victoria, and Southeast Texas before activity begins to diminish.
Key Concerns
Rapid flash flooding overnight, especially across urban areas, low-water crossings, and flood-prone regions.
Isolated totals of 5-8 inches of rain possible.
Saturated soils from recent rains will exacerbate runoff and flash flood risk.
Residents across Central Texas are urged to monitor forecasts and have multiple ways to receive warnings overnight. Never attempt to drive through flooded roadways.
Stay tuned for continued updates as this dangerous overnight rain event unfolds. You can keep up with the latest with our live weather stream here.
David Reimer
Owner and Baldy-in-Chief of Texas Storm Chasers, one of the state’s leading independent weather media brands. I specialize in severe weather coverage, real-time storm tracking, and digital weather communication. Passionate about keeping Texans informed, prepared, and engaged—one forecast at a time.