The line is surprisingly low at Michigan -21.5
I'm not sure if Fresno will score more than 3 points against arguably the best defense in the country... but can Michigan score more than 24? They should be able to run on Fresno rather easily, but that'll shorten the game. Decent chance though that Michigan just runs it on them easily scores a TD on almost every drive if their OL is actually as good as their mods seem to believe it could be
I think Michigan will live in twelve personnel, and when they aren't in 12, they'll be bringing in extra OL or a third TE. They'll do all of this with an excellent running QB (not a dual threat, he can't pass), and that extra number in the run game you have to account for should make their running game extremely efficient. Play action from this should have guys running wide open all over the field, and it'll be up to orgy to hit wide open passes. They're going to body blow you all game and bank on gashing you in their last couple of drives to break your will
They potentially have the best defense in the country, so playing the ball control and field position games makes sense as an overall strategy, although it's arguably not the best way to win in modern college football, and I don't think it'll work on Texas
I think there's a good chance Texas doesn't cover this one (opened at -35, was bet down recently to -32.5), but I was thinking more along the lines of a backdoor cover with Sark calling off the dogs early and looking ahead to Michigan than CSU hanging around throughout the game, but both are in the realm of likely possibilities
An interesting difference between Tice and Brugler is Mykel Williams; Tice said on his pod that Mykel Williams is his #1 prospect (although he said Will Johnson and Abdul Carter are in the conversation), calling him Travon Walker but good at pass rushing
Brugler and Daniel Jeremiah are the two best public draft guys. They're pretty good at not only scouting, but also talking to front office personnel from every team in the league to help guide their mocks/big boards to make sure they aren't too far off. I think Tice is really good too, although his still will be farther off from consensus because he just straight up gives his opinions without regard to how the league views things
Brugler is usually way ahead of the curve on guys, and he's releasing his first big board today. Tice should release an updated one tomorrow I believe. DJ doesn't usually release anything until the season is over. I think everyone else is run-of-the-mill and basically puts out echo chamber work that anyone of us could do
Here's a mock from one of those guys, Field Yates
1) Carson Beck- QB- Georgia
2) James Pearce Jr- Edge- Tennessee
3) Kelvin Banks- OT- Texas
4) Shedeur Sanders- QB- Colorado
5) Mykel Williams- Edge- Georgia
6) Will Johnson- CB- Michigan
7) Mason Graham- DT- Michigan
'8) Quinn Ewers- QB- Texas
9) Nic Scourton- Edge- A&M
10) Will Campbell- OT- LSU
11) Travis Hunter- WR/CB- Colorado
12) Benjamin Morrison- CB- Notre Dame
13) Tetairoa McMillan- WR- Arizona
14) Malaki Starks- S- Georgia
15) Denzel Burke- CB- Ohio State
16) Emery Jones- OT- LSU
17) JT Tuimoloau- Edge- Ohio State
18) Colston Loveland- TE- Michigan
19) Luther Burden III- WR- Missouri
20) Deone Walker- DT- Kentucky
21) Jonah Savaiinaea- OG/OT- Arizona
22) Abdul Carter- Edge- Penn State
23) Harold Perkins- LB- LSU
24) Patrick Payton- Edge- FSU
25) Emeka Egbuka- WR- Ohio State
26) Donovan Jackson- OG- Ohio State
27) Tacario Davis- CB- Arizona
28) Isaiah Bond- WR- Texas
29) Tyler Booker- OG- Alabama
30) Landon Jackson- Edge- Arkansas
31) Kenneth Grant- DT- Michigan
32) Tommy Hill- CB- Nebraska