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closetojumping

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by closetojumping

  1. Ohio State's non-corporate NIL stack for the 2024 season was just less than $25M. I do not know what their corporate side was. Texas' non-corporate NIL stack for the 2024 season was just less than $25M. Corporate was trending towards 8 figures. One side bragged to the media about it and the other went about its business. There are rumors that OSU isn't going to reach those numbers this cycle, although they're not going anywhere. Texas' non-corporate NIL stack for the 2025 season surpasses that of 2024, and the same will be true of corporate. Texas is not middle class on this stuff. Neither is OSU, Oregon, or Michigan. Don't expect that to change. If someone brings a knife, these groups will bring a gun. If someone puts one of theirs in the hospital, they will put everyone else in the morgue. That's both the Chicago way and today's NIL landscape.
  2. Three times is my limit in terms of reading a post and trying to comprehend it. You're going to need to explain to me what your point is by treating me like I'm an idiot with minimal reading comprehension skills, I guess. Wrong. You're applying rationale to something completely illogical. I already addressed this. I fucking addressed all of this at the dawn of NIL and the same stupid shit came up then as well. Maybe one donor gets tired of playing the game because the plane can't be trusted to land at all, or it keeps landing in Akron, fine. A group of them? No. Absolutely not. ATM has NIL money. Baylor has NIL money. Arkansas sports, who haven't won a fucking thing since the basketball title in the '90's with Corliss Williamson and Todd fucking Day, are showered in NIL money. Many, many programs that never win shit have happy NIL boosters taking their shots. And guess what happens when actual fatigue sets in? Rodney Terry gets fired and Sean Miller gets guaranteed, upgraded NIL money to start over. The landscape is littered with these examples. Nobody's base takes their money and goes elsewhere. These are humans, with human emotions. They'll make whatever decisions suit their whim or feelings and justify that with whatever logic they can find. No one can cite an example in the last 4 years of a program's supporters simply being frustrated with losing and never donating to NIL again. You can find examples of NIL being withheld until there's regime change, but that's withholding money so they can spend more with enthusiasm later. The notion that logic is going to arrive to this market as though it is an unrigged, free market that will ultimately be driven eventually by sound market forces is laughable. This isn't tulip mania or dot.com irrational exuberance. Economists are dogshit forecasters of the future in the first place, but they're particularly idiotic in moments like this when they're applying classroom theory and unrelated historical anecdotes to a semi-corrupt, poorly regulated, emotional game being waged as social warfare by people with fucktons of money and a shit ton of emotional affinity that they apply to almost nothing else in their lives like this landscape. Absurdly, everyone seems to understand this to be true when it comes to analyzing Phil Knight's motives or those of Larry Ellison. Changing expectations or applying different rules because the other players have less money is basic folly.
  3. This is easy to type, yet harder to support. The buyout will be huge for a school and AD in financial trouble. The House Settlement isn't going to make things better, either. The act of buying out the HC, who was just extended in the 2024 summertime, his entire staff (which isn't a cheap staff), and then the buyouts for the next staff likely drives the package to north of $30M from a donor base that struggles to compete in NIL already. The pros and cons, as of now, for being the HC at OU are as tilted towards the cons more than any time in college football history. Pros: -winning tradition -national-ish brand -the university and the state care more about winning in football than almost any other priority -proximity to talent rich DFW Cons: -lack of full control over player or coaching personnel (new) -weak NIL/no way to create a competitive advantage with $50,000 bags under the table these days (new) -comparatively weak corporate NIL to rival and other national brands (new) -rivals/semi-rivals are strong in NIL (new) -rebuilding in a powerful conference -location -fanbase patience The project at OU will not be the same as it ever was. Whoever takes over when Venables leaves, whether this cycle or not, will be taking over a roster subjected to terrible S&C concepts. That roster will have recruiting classes that finished in the bottom half of the SEC recruiting rankings repeatedly. The roster will have also been picked clean of most of the actual talent by wealthy rivals and powers. The fanbase will be expecting the new guy to "win now" just like Stoops did in a different era, followed by ebil Lincoln Riley doing the same. It will be awesome to watch.
  4. I've avoided the ROI discussion for the most part over the years, mostly because when it has come up, it's usually zealots arguing for the negative ROI to ultimately be the downfall of a perceived unsustainability. That zealotry can be over their views on the principles of "real" NIL or their own rightness regarding economic and human behaviors versus the rest of us unwitting buffoons and our perceptions. In any direction, it looks like a tiring engagement. That considered, I'll wade in here and point out the "negative ROI" concept is just laughably wrongheaded. Are ski resorts unsustainable because the visitors are getting a negative ROI on their "investment"? There's a Four Seasons 747 that flies clients around the world in suites to visit exotic locales for like $200k per flyer. That experience lasts like 2 or 3 months. Are those patrons getting a monetary return on their "investment"? Have the guys who forked over tens of millions to have their names on buildings and stadiums at various schools somehow getting a positive ROI on their "investment"? The answer to all of those questions to rational observers is "no". The premise is wrong in the first place. No one involved with booster NIL has any expectation of a monetarily positive return on the money they put in. It's not an "investment" to them. They're not deluded about buying an equivalent of pro sports team from the money-making perspective. Markets, industries, wealthy people - they can all remain "irrational" longer than your arguments can remain viable. Rich people will continue to pay large amounts of money to field sports teams in college for: -bragging rights, -access, -credit, -experience. They do not give one fuck if you approve or think what they're doing makes any sense, and that will continue to be the case for the rest of all of our lives even as the chorus of fates continues to lament the concept's perceived "unsustainability".
  5. Liucci was born a redass aggie. He lives in College Station. He's never known anything but aggieness, from school to sports to living, it's all the same. Obviously this clearly qualifies him as an expert who can speak to the world about who they are and what they represent and blah blah blah. Yet somehow, this clown also speaks authoritatively about winning coaches, winning players, winning strategies, winning cultures, on and on. He's allowed to do so by the aggie faithful, but that's okay since they're all lemmings and need one of their own to tell them what they want to hear in an unexamined way. On the other hand, how is this guy allowed to speak to the rest of the public and to other media regarding anything on winning? He has no idea, no history, and no background to point him having been close to anything or anyone who knows a damned thing about winning. That infamous tweet was taken seriously by people and retweeted at the time. As if Liucci had any tools for knowing whether Fisher, Williams or Schlossnagle were actually going to be able to win anything at the time. Even now, he has the temerity to respond to the mockery by claiming that he was right at the time. That fucking rube is actually an expert on losing. When he starts predicting, we should start betting on the opposite.
  6. If that’s the case, it’s a 3rd place finish for ctj, baby!
  7. Illinois State Temple Kent State Ole Miss (lost almost all starting talent) Missouri (since when is Missouri a threat to OU) South Carolina has an amazing player on each side of the ball. They lost the rest of their DL. They’re the most overrated team in the country. That leaves needing wins against: -Michigan -Auburn -Texas (neutral site) -@Tenn -@Bama -@LSU OU beat two of those teams this past year. Winning 8 games against that schedule is not a feat of strength.
  8. This is some next level dork shit, here. Good grief.
  9. I've heard the dad is great dude. He's apparently done very well for himself and was a founding contributor to FSU's NIL program. He's been helpful in keeping OT Goosby focused on developing his future at Texas, which paid off for everyone late in the season.
  10. I’ll see if I find anything telling on Sooners Illustrated about it. That said, their WR room is dogshit. That’s better than their TE room, which is dogshit wrapped in catshit. But they’ve got Burks, who this time last year was being hailed as the greatest non-QB portal pick-up/steal of all time. Turns out he’s a smallish bully against weaker competition and basically quit during the season due to soft tissue injury and a lack of heart. NIL and promises brought him back. After that dude, it’s a bunch of hobos named Bob. At TE, Mitchell allegedly brought a handgun into the locker room. He’s too young to carry legally and those are off limits in the facilities, even at OU. On top of that, he was chronically late to practice and film room, allegedly has developed a drinking problem and was banging cocktail waitresses two at a time. He needed to be straightened out, so mentor and TE coaching savant, Joe Jon Finley, promptly kicked him off the team and pushed a non-consent story. The TE room now has 6 guys in it, including some dude they brought in from Pittsburgh State who has like 3 catches in his D2/D3 career. Even Lehman and Plank have had to admit on their show that TE is going to be mostly blocking and a pass-eligible OT. Looking at Mateer’s offensive output, that’s probably okay. To say that he calls a WR dominant passing game is putting it mildly. That brings us back to the shittiness of the OU WR corps. I wonder if teams like Texas and Alabama will be able to get their heads around stopping a passing game dependent upon the legs of some random, shifty white dude and multiple WRs playing far above their expected levels.
  11. I’m becoming somewhat fascinated with the OL group in this class. I’ve coveted Turntine for more than a year and now he really looks like he’s fading. Nonetheless, there are multiple other guys who fit the same LT profile with bigger bodies and similar rankings. Texas looks really good for more than they can take.
  12. Gerry seems bullish on things: Texas Hoops: Size everywhere, more portal additions to come For years Texas fans have clamored for a roster with true bigs and size across the board. Well, Sean Miller is already proving he is your guy in that regard. The three portal additions so far are a 6-foot-8 wing/F that will be an NBA draft pick when he leaves Texas, a 7-foot center that will very likely be an NBA prospect after two years in Austin and a very athletic 6-foot-7 wing/F that shoots it from three at 39%. And there will be two more portal additions to the roster, with one being another big man. The current Texas roster now features five players that stand 6-foot-8 or more, with more 6-foot-10 addition on the way. Texas current 2025-26 roster... Tramon Mark, CG, 6-6, Gr. (10.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists) Jordan Pope, CG, 6-0, senior (11.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists) Chendall Weaver, G, 6-3, senior (6.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists) Camden Heide, F, 6-7, junior (4.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 39.2% from three at Purdue) Dailyn Swain, F, 6-8, junior (11.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals at Xavier) Matas Vokietaitas, C, 7-0, sophomore (10.2 points, 5.4 rebounds at FAU) Malik Presley, G/W, 6-5, RS-sophomore Nic Codie, PF, 6-8.5, sophomore John Clark, PF, 6-8.5, freshman Jamie Vinson, PF, 6-10.5, sophomore Xavier player in portal Texas leads for ... Lassina Traore, C, 6-10, senior (11.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists in 2023-24 at LBSU) Portal targets ... Texas will take one more combo guard, and it will be a shooter with enough size. The 13th scholarship… Texas will be patient here. Could be a young PG or a skilled big to develop. Sean MIller's staff ... Chris Ogden - General Manager Adam Cohen - Associate Head Coach David Miller - Assistant coach Ulric Malagi - assistant coach Ryan Anderson - Assistant coach/Director of player Development Ryan Reynolds - Special Assistant to the Head Coach Cam Miller -Director of Operations Andy Kettler - Head of strength & conditioning
  13. OU is really putting in some work on the development end under Venables. This dude was a 5 star who reclassified and was still a highly rated 4 star. He got to campus and immediately exploded north of 275 lbs and disappeared into the garbage pile at TE. I’m interested in seeing what happens with Fasusi. Stone’s allegedly “flashing” this spring. They’re defaulting to having to play the Edge guy who was heralded and been an absolute bust so far. Peyton Bowen isn’t lighting the place on fire. The Tatum guy has been hurt or middling so far at TB. Arnold flamed out hilariously. Kanak is now a TE. I know I’m missing a few but the results look like Texas results in talent development from 2010-2021.
  14. He’s not a “good dude” for Texas. Outside of him showing up with embarrassing offers to land transfers in various sports, the guy has been behind legislature meddling on two fronts. One, he’s actually tried to build a coalition that would force Texas to play in-state schools in non-cons across all sports, with a rotation format. Fuck him in every orifice for that alone. Two, he’s been involved with trying to get Tech a share of the PUF or whatever it is called regarding the land UT owns and already shares, via legislature bullying years ago, with ATM. So fuck that guy and his shitty university.
  15. If it is true that this guy was making $80k and now he’s jumping to $2M+ overnight, he could truly lose his mind running through coeds and blow before next season even starts.
  16. Hahahahhahaa. The spin on this guy this spring was great. Dude exploded north of 275 lbs. Venables claimed they wanted him to bulk up and then the talking heads started bleating that he “looked athletic” at that weight. Now Fawcett tweets that he’s at 245 lbs. Right. Maybe in photos from high school. If you are a top 75 recruit, sign with Venables at OU if you want to see your career collapse in real time. Good lord.
  17. Have they not been called out for just straight up lying about what they wrote about the guy?
  18. You make my point for me. You seem very drab.
  19. The irony of a successful oilman throwing generational money down the dry well that is Texas Tech is somewhat fascinating to behold. Also irritating, but whatever.
  20. I travel with an entourage and armed guards. BO&W couldn’t come within 20 yards of my person.
  21. You come across as a blast at parties. Bedlam in the spring would be awesome.
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