I am not sure there is any revisionist history that includes a 4th year of Strong and puts Texas in a better place today.
Meyer was in his final year at tosu - most likely (near 100%, IMO) off the table.
You are right that Herman is at LSU. If he sucks, Texas "dodged a bullet." If he's great, LSU will keep him.
The list of coaches who moved leading into the 2018 season is interesting:
Jimbo Fisher, A&M
Frost, Nebraska
Kelly, UCLA
Mullen, UF
Sumlin, Arizona
Taggart, FSU
Pruitt, Tennessee
Morris, Arkansas
Moorehead, MSU
Cristobal, Oregon
Smith, oregon St
Luke, Ole Miss
Edwards, ASU
Heupel, UCF
Napier, ULL
Dykes, SMU
Bloomgren, Rice
I am not sure any of those would have been attractive to the administration. Who would the donors have targeted?
So - Should we be forever grateful that he lost to Kansas, even if it led to Herman?
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/coaching-carousel-hires-2017-8-ranking-jimbo-fisher-scott-frost-chip-kelly-jeremy-pruitt/brjraf5r3rs51lup9e4ustz0n