Captainant
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Everything posted by Captainant
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Captainant replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
The majority of the cost of the AI data centers is the chips, not the surrounding infrastructure. Those chips will be EOL in 3 to 5 years, which means year one being negative revenue is really putting them behind the eight ball for offsetting that capex depreciation -
I wonder if invading Venezuela for their oil will help or hurt oil markets
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Captainant replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Which company is the far and away most valuable in the world right now? It's Nvidia. That's all just AI chip sales, all going into those data centers. The 60% number is from articles like this one https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-spending-on-ai-capex-q3-2025-10?op=1#microsoft-spent-a-record-34-9-billion-in-capex-in-the-first-quarter-of-its-fiscal-year-1 Where "short term assets like AI cpus and gpus" are getting 50% of gross capex spend, and most big tech CFO's are reporting in earnings calls that the "vast majority" of capex is going towards AI chips. So there's hundreds of billions of investments just this year that have to return a profit within three years, and are currently losing money every time they conduct a LLM transaction with a customer -
Good news! Fossil fuels no longer contribute to climate change! https://apnews.com/article/epa-climate-change-censorship-fossil-fuels-1c83071f9eea81e8e31ebad0c4444775
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GamersNexus has some coverage on it, it's using a Zen4 6C/12T desktop part and a RX7600 equivalent card (around an RTX 3060). It's not designed to be the most powerful thing, but it'll play pretty much everything at 1080p and you can use FSR (deep learning upscaling) to play at 4K and have it look reasonably good. But the benefit is that it's a standard hardware spec, fully supported by Valve and with the weight of their troubleshooting and community behind keeping it working well. The SteamDeck has come a long way since its launch and all that development effort is going into the Steam Machine. It's not building your own, but it looks like it's gonna be a compelling option if you just want a PC gaming box that works
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TBH DeepComposer with AWS was a pretty good implementation of that idea - it converted a .midi file into a "piano roll" which is basically a visual format of a midi file, and they would apply custom transformer models to the piano roll to change the style. Stuff like "make this melody jazzy" or "add accompany parts to this song". I think it's been since deprecated, but it was a really interesting swing at the idea. And it was before LLM's were really a thing, but still using the Transformer architecture. The github is still up with Jupyter notebooks that explain the methodology though, both for setting up the GAN architecture to train a new producer, and for actually augmenting a song. https://github.com/aws-samples/aws-deepcomposer-samples/blob/master/ar-cnn/AutoRegressiveCNN.ipynb https://github.com/aws-samples/aws-deepcomposer-samples/blob/master/gan/GAN.ipynb I think this stuff is fascinating since it's blurring the line on input modality and communicating ideas between parties
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wowser, when I think of "Trump's America" I really think Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan has some incredible boots on the ground stuff
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You should really consider the Steam Machine when it launches early next year. It's an actual computer running a Steam operating system that makes it extremely similar to a console experience. Except it's a full-on PC so you can mod your games and load in whatever software or emulators or media you want. Because it's YOUR computer, not a locked down console. You can use it like a PC with a mouse and keyboard and normal desktop experience (it's Linux, but honestly very similar to a baseline Windows experience), or use it just with a controller like you would with a console under your living room TV. I'm really strongly considering one myself since my wife wants her PC back and not to be our living room gaming PC
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Hell, a Blu-ray drive and trips to the local library can build out a local library of files pretty quickly. And yeah having an eye patch is never a bad idea with a Plex server lol. It's been such a nice change for my family. I built mine back in 2020 as a COVID project and it's been churning out video for friends and family ever since. It's really nice to never have things go away (unless I choose to delete it for space) and to be able to add whatever I want whenever I want.
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This is a really fascinating hands-on example, since LLM's literally don't know what music sounds like. Your ear is able to easily acid test the output and advice given to you, and those models have almost certainly ingested enough music theory information to actually give good guidance. It's like having a music tutor on-demand to ask questions to. It can't listen to you, but you can get some useful information from it. My job is technical at its core, but involves alot of creativity in terms of picking tradeoffs and putting together workarounds for deficciencies. I've been able to use genAI to really help speed up some of my solutioning and troubleshooting, but it's really only something I use every once in a while. But it is extremely effective when I choose to use it as a tool. The problem (IMO) is when it's not just another tool in your toolbox, and is instead the beginning and end of your workflow. That wrong leap is often made by management that doesn't really understand or care what their people do, and are just KPI jockeys. If your only abstraction to what is being produced is some dashboard or KPI or P/L line, then it's easy to think that AI can just do everything. The most successful genAI implementations i've seen so far have been when it's been used to augment an existing process or workflow to remove annoying bullshit or workaround a specific blocker. Nearly all of the failed projects have been when someone just writes a really fancy prompt and burns a billion tokens to do the same thing that a simple API could have serviced for way cheaper
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Trump is wanting to run the Chamberlain playbook, and the rest of Europe remembers how WWII went.
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ya know, it's funny how these "prediction market" goons are now advocating for the use of insider information in their markets. This feels like nothing but a means for Don Jr to extract some money from useful idiots
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Captainant replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
If you aren't you're saying all the same arguments that an AI apologist offers. You keep going back to the fallacy of it being a useful bubble - none of this hardware is long-term viable. The reality is there's been billions, if not trillions, of debt taken out to fund these data center build outs. The majority of that spending has been to buy nvidia chips. There's gigawatts of unused nvidia chips sitting around because they can't build out the data centers because of how unique and specialized they are to run genAI workloads. Each rack takes 600KW of power to run, is liquid cooled, and requires specialized network infrastructure to properly operationalize. And for all that effort, they aren't making ANY profit or net positive revenue. Each query they service costs more than they charge for it. -
There's people who get so far down a wrong line of thinking that they let it take over everything in their brains, for fear of admitting they were wrong. Your dad is unfortunately one of them it sounds like. He doesn't want to admit that he wrongly trusted a fascist, and so he's lying to himself to soften the blow to his ego. There's lots of people like that these days.
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That's an outright act of war to blockcade a country. Black and white, that's definitionally an act of war
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This is a hilarious fabrication that is so often repeated as a grievance. What an absurd equivocation: the federal government punishing speech it didn't like, versus a message board telling someone they're repeating lies? Where's the neg into Bolivia? Where's the trail of abandoned accounts? It's just GRUhorn derailing and the performative victims proclaiming how unfair they're treated. Tell me you've never faced a bully without telling me. You can't ignore them into submission or just give them what they want and hope they go away. It really is funny how you're mad at the """CR""" for the derail by a troll sock account. If anything, you should be mad at the mods for reclassifying trolling as "just doing a bit".
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The density and power consumption of these things is unreal. 600 kilowatts through a single server rack is mind boggling, and then when you throw in closed loop cooling and heat pumps to move all that heat away from the chips... It's insane how much power is being burned on these things that don't actually make a profit
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I've been "encountered" by border patrol a few times going to/from and on my wife's family's ranch down near Presido. Once was on foot while hiking on our land - he looked at our boots and made note and kept on doing his thing. Another was driving to the ranch, and we got stopped by BP because they didn't recognize my car and wanted to ask why we were in the area. Have more BP, get more encounters. That's just how their job works. It's funny to see GRUhorn or whichever troll sock it is come in and so successfully stoke the false victimhood of """unfair thought policing""". Must be nice to never have to change your playbook
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Captainant replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
glass fiber laid in the ground is not vendor-specific hardware that has a three to five year operational span, which is what the majority of AI capex expendatures have been on. Not on datacenter capacity, not on power generation or delivery, not on reusable infrastructure. Not like the other bubbles that you and AI apologists keep going back to lol. 60% of overall "AI" CapEx spend has been on hardware that has a lifespan shorter than my wife's last iPhone. That is going to leave a smoking crater in the books. -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Captainant replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Not lied to, but both rather https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-bubble-ai-debt-credit-big-tech-bonds-borrowing-2025-11 Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have issued around $100 billion of bonds year-to-date, according to a recent Bank of America analysis, more than double the amount the same firms raised in the bond market last year. -
It is. The businesses investors need their money back, so they must pump your aquifers. Don't be a commie, just bend over for the corporate fucking
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Captainant replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Oh boy I've always wanted to live through the AI debt bubble popping while in a period of stagflation -
Get ready for that to be even worse with AI """summaries""" that make shit up
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Even the musical guest sucked ass this week. I get that she's got the hot gossip album but holy hell I've seen better karaoke performances
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But he HAS successfully derailed the focus on Trump's pedophilia and child sexual abuse. Great job, ya fucking death panelist.
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