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Darth Tron

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Darth Tron

  1. Friendly reminder not to listen to me.
  2. I'm hammering that spread. NC State should win by 3 touchdowns.
  3. You definitely touch on the heart of the issue here. Summative vs Predictive, essentially. You are correct that FSU/Bama was settled on the field. FSU earned it. Going forward, it will be interesting to see if they maintain that trajectory. That's where the predictive part comes in. Based on metrics like points per play, yards per play, turnover margin, and others, depending on the weighting, you can get a feel for how things would go in the future. Like I said, it would be interesting to see what would happen if Bama/FSU played again. Did FSU perform above their pay grade that day? Did Bama wake up hungover and underperform? Doesn't matter for now, FSU won fairly. But down the road would the result be the same? That's the fascinating thing about trying to predict the future with math, two weeks into a long season. Hopefully our Horns finish higher than 12th! Addendum: Regarding scratching preseason after week 1, then you get things like Texas Tech winning by 60 points against Arkansas-Pine Bluff week 1. You have to factor in something to mitigate that, and it might as well be some sort of ancestral memory from how those teams did the previous season, at least until we have more data.
  4. Yeah, it gets more predictive as the season goes on. Since some of the data is stuff like "expected points per play" and things of that nature, single game occurrences may not turn out like "expected". I do wonder how Alabama v FSU would go if they played again.
  5. I use this site: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other Their methodology uses some previous season's stuff for SoS, now that I look into it, but the rest of the data comes from this season only. Good catch.
  6. 44-3 Texas 325 APY from WR position
  7. Germane to the conversation: I maintain a spreadsheet tracking all current 136 FBS teams throughout the season, updating with raw stats every Monday using a proprietary formula to determine a "Power Rating" metric. This metric uses only data from this year, and heavily factors in strength of schedule throughout the various categories. This is the current output of the Top 25. Obviously it's two games in and we'd be surprised if Nebraska ends the season at #4, but as a thought exercise it's interesting to see what things look like when you remove all bias from the previous season. This metric correctly predicted literally every game of last year's playoff, for what it's worth.
  8. Depends on how fast he was going.
  9. Texas - 42 SJSU - 3 Rushing - 243
  10. Sweet. Debating the merits of Quanell X was the final missing square on my “Offseason Hell” bingo card. Now I’m set!
  11. Fox One has a free trial if it comes to that: https://www.fox.com/
  12. Texas 27 Bucknuts 24 Arch 311 yards total.
  13. Dibs on "The Mind Heavy" band name.
  14. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46042216/sec-go-9-game-conference-schedule-starting-2026
  15. Maybe Sark read about how OSU is having real troubles with their offensive line and is being a a true sportsman by shuffling ours up and giving them a fighting chance.
  16. While we take a stroll down memory lane, do you guys remember the 1984 Cotton Bowl?
  17. Ah. It's not really much of a theory. Pretty much that Mack and my parents, along with a couple of other folks I know, were all born in that window, and all share the characteristics most commonly associated with the negative stereotype of the "Boomer". Petulant, entitled, etc.. They also, while not looking like Mack at all, manage to look exactly like Mack via facial expression and mannerisms when speaking. I was simply pleased to potentially expand the limited dataset of people born in that window who all shared the same 1950s environmental factors and look/speak/act exactly like Mack Brown (minus the accent).
  18. Is your dad 73, almost 74 years old? Because my mom and dad both have almost the exact facial/speech mannerisms of Mack and I've been developing a theory about those born in the window from August of 1951 to February of 1952 being peak boomer.
  19. Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey, I believe. Had to look it up because I certainly don't remember him playing or doing anything.
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