Our rooting interest in order of importance if we want 9-3 Texas in (in order of importance)
1) Pitt over Domers
2) Florida over Ole Miss
3) bama over OU
4) Iowa over USC
5) Baylor over Utah
6) TCU over BYU
I’m only picking the games that could happen. If Miami, Texas tech, Georgia tech or Michigan want to lose to shitty teams I won’t be sad. Aggy getting drilled by SCar isn’t going to happen but if they get drilled and we drill them it could bring Texas at 9-3 into play over a 10-2 aggy. Probably not, but maybe.
All these games aren’t necessary to go our way, and they aren’t all created equally.
Domers losing to Pitt should just about do it for us to get in at 9-3 (if it’s a non blow out)
if Domers win that’s pretty much a wrap for their spot which is fine, but more complicated.
I also think we’d be damn near clinched of Bama and Florida win today. That should make 9-3 Texas the 4th place SEC team. 4 are definitely getting in.
Utah and BYU losing also pretty much make the big 12 a 1 team league and the SEC a 5 team league which should get Texas in. Neither of those results is likely necessary and Utah losing probably slightly better than BYU losing since they still have Cincy, but I believe neither is necessary and both are just good.
1 happening gets us to about 95% of getting in at 9-2.
2 and 3 happening together get us over 90%
4 happening gets us over 80%
5 or 6 happening get us over 80%
5 &6 both happening get us up over 90%.
note- I think beating Georgia comfortably and losing to an 11-0 aggy close is probably better for our playoff chances, but shit that would be tough to watch.