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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Mine was after losing to the number 1 team in the country at their place in a game we completely outplayed them and the only reason for the loss was because our 5 star QB who has some really good game film played like a retard and it didn’t seem likely that would continue. new shit came to light and I got lambasted by CTJ for being too negative by the week 3 thread. The only thing I’m pushing back against now is the idea 7-5 is a ceiling for this team. I still think that’s dumb looking at the schedule, the cpu rankings and the Vegas lines.
  2. The Vegas lines care a lot about the models. We are pretty close to them either way. With Holyfield I’d be surprised if they were favored in Austin, but that line might bounce around a bit under a FG either way.
  3. Sure. I’m game planning out what 9-3 would look like not searing it will happen. after week 1 I said we’d go 11-1 or 10-2 and be favored in every game but Georgia. I’m sticking with favored in every game (so far that’s right) other than Georgia but that doesn’t mean they are going to play out that way.
  4. No bet. I think they sort of suck. And their schedule isn’t easy coming in. But, they get Ole Miss and LSU in Norman/ right? At Bama likely an auto loss. TN isn’t real good. They could go 9-3 or 10-2 if they get lucky. I’d bet on 8-4 or 7-5 as most likely, but who knows. for whatever reason teams still get credit for “besting a top 10 at the time” team in some corners. put another way- Saharan has us rated 9th in his computer dork ratings. Our schedule: Buckeyes- 1 georgia- 6 aggy-7 OU- 13 vandy- 17 florida- 24 MSST- 47 kentucky- 53 arkansas-37 that would be 1-2 against top 5 teams, 3-0 against 6-20 and a loss to the 24 team and then 3 more wins over top 50 type teams that’s a top 10 team in the computers, a top 5 brand in the country, a TV draw etc it’s not a guarantee- but show me 11 resumes that’s would be better than that the main argument is- that won’t happen- bc we suck and will find ways to lose more than 1 more game- which- probably true but the team that played OU could absolutely go 4-1 against that schedule- probably the team that played Ohio state too Really good defense and special teams can win games
  5. You forgot OU. We would have won 3 top 10 games (at the time) teams (if Vandy beats Mizzou- root hard for that) and lost to the likely big 10 champs, sec champs and a talented Florida team by 1 score at their places. That resume sounds and looks on paper better than what you’ve seen on TV. That beats out a 10-2 Georgia tech team, or something like that. the big thing would be that team likely finishes third (in a tie) in the SEC with tie breaker over every other 2 loss team in there. That would carry weight I’d think. 9-3 bama with some fugly wins was a Clemson FG away from making it last year. And that was with 4 big 10 teams. There will only be 3 this year from the big 10 I would bet. Name me a 4th. I don’t think you can do it.
  6. Tell me what I said was wrong with any of that. I was doing an analysis on what 9-3 Texas chances were of making the playoffs bc someone else said it- not making any sort of prediction we’d go 9-3. but- my contention is that’s our most likely outcome: in order of likelihood I’d guess: 9-3 8-4 10-2 7-5 6-6 5-7.
  7. Agreed. That’s why I said better than 50% chance but not near certainty. If you were going to go 9-3 probably best to lose to Vandy and then finish the year winning at Georgia, Arkansas and aggy, point to the OU win and say- hey yall we best 3 top 10 teams and lost at #1 in preseason. No terrible losses. We need in. And you’d be on a bit of a run then if you did it that way. We really need Vandy to beat Mizzou in Nashville next week for 9-3 Texas to be a thing.
  8. There’s a world (I’m starting to think it’s greater than 50%) where 9-3 Texas makes the playoffs. big 10 is a 3 big league. Miami and tech losing make it more likely the big 12 and ACC are 1 bid leagues. Domers are in. Group of 6 guppies are in. That would leave 5 spots for SEC. In a world where we are 9-3 bc we lose at Georgia (if close loss) we will be 9-3 with wins over 3 top 10 teams (at the time we played them in aggy, OU and Vandy) and 1 score losses on the road to Florida, the 1 team in the country and a top 5 team in the country. We are also the most watched team in college football this year and they are putting on a TV show. in that scenario it’s likely that Bama and Georgia finish ahead of us- while we would be the top 2 loss crew (aggy drops another one before us) so we’d have the tiebreaker- Ditto OU in their wildest optimistic dream finish, ditto Vandy for the same- we’d not have played LSU but whatever. Call it everyone actualizes and that’s the finish the SEC goes: bama/georgia bama/georgia texas/aggy/OU/Vandy/LSU/mizzou. they take 2 or 3 out of those. I think we’d be in.
  9. You missed the point. Aggy is game 12- we can’t be 9-3 headed into that game but can be headed out of it.
  10. I will bet you everything I own this team won’t be 9-3 going into aggy game. Coming out of it? Sure- it could happen.
  11. Then we are going to win (maybe) and be 7-2.
  12. A great thing happened at 6:00 last night. Undefeated aggy, in a 1 point game and ranked number 4- got bumped to the kiddie table in favor of us playing Kentucky. That never happens. They finish out the first game. That’s a national slap in the face to them and conclusive proof everyone sees them as little brother. @closetojumping has said it’s my responsibility to blow sunshine on the weekly thread so there it is. oh- and we should be favored to get to bowl eligibility. Mack Brown taught me we should cherish that and Charlie Strong showed this isn’t a guarantee. So, we’ve got that! This team still has all its potential goals on the table in front of it, as unlikely as that sounds. I’ve never felt less likely to achieve those goals, but here we are. We ain’t losing to no Mississippi State. Unless we play like we did 3 or 4 times in the first 7 games. Then we will. Here’s hoping they figure it out this week. Running out of time.
  13. Georgia sucks (on offense). We should lose convincingly.
  14. Because he's not our standard and I guess he wanted to do more than slay west campus sorority pussy and do the kickoffs. That seems like a bad idea to me, but it's his life so, whatever.
  15. Bagwell was actually an awesome hitting coach for the 3 months he did it before he decided that he'd rather not live that lifestyle when he could booze it up back home. Came closer to making chicken salad out of chicken shit than any other hitting coach we've ever had.
  16. And that TD last week on the roll right goalie play was absurd. He kept getting deeper when running for a TD was absolutely an option, then he held the ball forever and strung the play out himself, needlessly. I had a great basically all 22 angle on that at the game and was just perplexed by the entire thing- even though it worked out fine. Hes getting better for sure. He also has sooooooo much work to do to get where he needs to be. He does all the things Ewers was shitty at really well. But. It should show how elite Ewers was at things fans don’t consider important that we were as good as we were last 2 years while he was so shitty at some stuff, and we’ve been on balance bad with Arch even with him doing a lot of stuff well.
  17. We ain’t losing to no Vandy especially in ATX. pull yourself together.
  18. False. No way a 10-3 texas gets left out. Especially when one loss is at Ohio state and the other would have to be in the SEC title game
  19. He sort of sucked in the first 2 drives against same (scored TD and didn’t throw incomplete but ball was in wrong spot and/or to the wrong guy, but he played legitimately good after that. He’s going on 10 quarters in a row of pretty solid play. After about 10 quarters of shitty play to open the season.
  20. I saw it. It actually made the Florida game worse for me bc I said arch was fine/good given the context unlike OSU where it felt like he was point shaving. Fixing 1 guy is easier/better than fixing the entire team which was the difference between OSU game and Florida.
  21. It’s at their place. 13.5 is my guess. I mean, yeah. For sure.
  22. They suck. We should win convincingly Texas is 4-2. We need to go 10-2 to make the playoffs. We aren’t losing to these retards. drink some bourbon. Beautiful trip if you want to go. They suck. We will be 5-2 after this week. It’s a 2 game season- at Georgia and aggy at home. We are better than both (I think). We just have to keep getting better against these losers.
  23. Arch was good against Sam. Fine against Florida. Good against OU. I’m no longer super worried about him going full rested like OSU and UTEP. Whatever. We can win a national title with what we saw the last 2 weeks if everyone else is good. What we saw makes me believe he can get to winning bc of him as opposed to in spite of him.
  24. Because we are probably better than them? At least without their QB
  25. I forgot about that TCU game. He was probably worse there than Ok State.
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