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Duane Moore

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Duane Moore

  1. Anymore? Our intel has been missing countries developing nuclear weapons since the late 90’s (e.g., Pakistan and North Korea). I’m sure we have better spies in many countries than Israel, but not in one that Israel considers to be its existential threat like Iran. The Mossad knew where dozens of high ranking officials would be on the first night of the war and had been running a workshop manufacturing drones in Tehran for years. I do trust their intelligence on Iranian capabilities more than our assessment. This is from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: At the Fordow plant, located near the city of Qom, the Iranians have enough centrifuges (including IR-6s, their more advanced type) and uranium hexafluoride gas to produce several nuclear weapons. They could probably produce enough weapon-grade (90 percent) enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon within five to six days. https://thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-united-states-may-destroy-the-fordow-enrichment-plant-it-wont-make-the-iranian-nuclear-threat-go-away/#post-heading Note that the article is not a pro-Israeli slant, it says bombing Fordow probably isn’t enough, laments the breaking of the JCPOA, but still says the danger is there. It’s easy to blame Bibi, he’s made a lot of enemies. But it’s also worth noting that the entire military and political structure of Israel seems to believe the threat assessment as well. This is chief opposition leader Yair Lapid:
  2. Watch this space. Dan is extremely plugged in on the Israeli side and has contacts within the administration (even though he’s more of a Bushie).
  3. Absolutely. It’s such a shame because they really should not have any natural enmity with Israel. The two countries don’t even share a border. If they spent their efforts trying to ensure the prosperity and security of their people rather than defining their nation around the elimination of an entire state solely due to their religion, everyone one in the region would be better off.
  4. I’m coming around to the idea that if the nukes at Fordow can be eliminated and they keep degrading the ballistic missile capability, keeping Khameini in power may be the preferred outcome. He’s proven to be completely outclassed in this conflict. Keep letting the old fool run the country into the ground. Obviously, if there was an Ataturk type who could replace him with a secular democracy that would be the fantasy scenario, but I’m not holding my breath on that. Reza Pahlavi doesn’t seem to have any substantial base of support and I haven’t seen anyone else (either an individual or party/movement) that might step up into that role.
  5. We got 26 years of stability from Iran with the Shah. In foreign policy, that’s about as good a result as you can hope for. No action we take in another country is going to produce a permanent set of conditions favorable to our interests.
  6. Seen lots of data points like this on the abstract question of Iran getting nukes: So the “why should we care if Iran gets a bomb” crowd may have a large online voice but are definitely in the minority. Question then becomes how far we should go to produce that outcome. I’m personally very comfortable with a B-2 dropping a MOAB or two on Fordow to seal the deal, especially now that the air defenses are gone, and Iran’s proxies have been largely defanged. Pretty sure that’s going to be a politically popular position with the average American as well. We don’t like Forever Wars but we don’t mind the isolated air strike with maximum value (see, e.g., Soleimani, Qasem, Zawahiri, Ayman-al, etc.). I’m much more agnostic on regime change, as much as the mullahs would deserve it karmically for what they’ve done to that country. I tend to think that what comes after would be better than the status quo, but that’s at best a 60/40 proposition. We shouldn’t be involved either way. The value of preventing them from going nuclear means we don’t have to pay attention to them any longer and can focus limited military assets in the Indo-Pacific countering China.
  7. FWIW, Israel’s politicians are united on this front, and so are the generals that got their positions before Bibi returned to power. They all genuinely believe the clock had run out.
  8. The 6 B-2’s that were parked at Diego Garcia for a while in May seem to have been moved out in the last few weeks.
  9. Relevant: Reading between the lines with these developments and based on Iran’s tone reportedly shifting in negotiations, Iran may have finally reached the tipping point on enrichment to weapons grade and Israel has decided it’s now or never. Either that or this is one big final bluff to get a deal. Someone do a wellness check on Tucker Carlson.
  10. This may not be the thread for it but shit seems about ready to go down in Iran
  11. In the 80’s and 90’s the value of these magazines was that they represented a large pitcher of cold water in the long trek through the desert of no college football between January 1 and the season starting in September. I guess if you followed recruiting you had February NSD, and there may be the odd reports out of spring practice, but these were just a big dose of content for the football starved fan to get you through the summer. I always loved marking the time when they first showed up on the supermarket magazine rack in June.
  12. And the Aggies will be yelling “We told you they ruin everything!” to anyone who will listen.
  13. https://www.on3.com/news/spring-college-football-transfer-portal-winners-miami-oklahoma-more/
  14. Tired: Following recruits on Twitter Wired: Following former players on LinkedIn
  15. Accuracy of predictions is not a prerequisite to sports hot take riches.
  16. But that headline is going to get circulated all through CFB, and probably a lot of non-CFB circles with people lamenting what has happened to the sport.
  17. Would be pretty hard to script a better nut shot of a series than that one.
  18. Out of curiosity, how do you spell the object in this picture:
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