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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. Somewhere months ago there was a credible article about some mathematician who did a statistical analysis of the voting patterns across the country and concluded the odds were something like a billion to one that type of voting patterns would have happened. I laughed at Magats who questioned the 2020 election, but with Elon and Russia firmly backing Trump, the possibility of fraud in the 2024 election is certainly not zero.
  2. Texas 20 OSU 17 combined Arch yards 251.
  3. True story. I took my wife on a booze cruise in the Bahamas when she was about 7 months pregnant. Obviously no alcohol for her. She wanted to go, so…..
  4. The directing of this series is spectacular. It’s really good.
  5. My wife and I are just fed up with buying clothes. These days the best stuff isn’t in stores, and if it is, not in your size. The stuff in the internet comes in and either doesn’t fit right or has something about it that makes it a no go. It’s just gotten ridiculous. We used to never return merchandise but now we are having to do it all the time. Damn I wish the retail clothing industry would have survived.
  6. I also think that when Sark takes his long ball shots it will have a stronger impact than under Quinn. With Quinn, opponents knew there was a chance he would miss the open receiver sometimes, so they would take more chances with the safeties. Defenses will have to respect the long ball more with Arch and that will open up running lanes and short passing opportunities. I would look for Texas to complete a 45+ yard pass in the 1st quarter, and then settle in to a steady diet of running and short pass plays.
  7. I keep going back and forth on this game: Reasons to win 1. Arch will be better than Quin, even with less experience, imo, and brings mobility to the pocket to help with big plays and to minimize bad plays like sacks. This is huge. 2. The defense has a ton of talent, and some depth. 3. OSU has a bigger re-build than Texas. Reasons to lose 1. OL injuires. 2. Winning in Columbus is tough. 3. A ton of talent was lost to the NFL and the new guys are a bit unproven. 4. Sometimes Sark gets too cute or too repetitive with his offensive strategy. So basically it comes down to how much of a re-build OSU has vs Texas. If they struggle to plug their losses more than Texas does theirs, OSU will win. I'm expecting a 20-17 game. I just don't know who ends up on top.
  8. One of my biggest pet peeves ever is looking up the start time of a tv program and whatever resource I’m looking at doesn’t specify the time zone of the listing. Drives me insane. Happens all the time, including most recently with a site listing the PGA tour championship tv times.
  9. What are you blabbering on about? Seriously. You are sounding like a complete idiot right now. I follow CTJ’s comments closely not only because I’ve met him in real life but because he usually has insights not well known by the usual message board idiot. He’s also usually pretty good about identifying in advance when he’s just guessing or pulling stuff out his ass. The fact that a bunch of morons on IT are upset is a badge of honor. Quit being a giant pussy.
  10. I can never hear the word “stuff” without thinking of this quote.
  11. My guess is two cuts happen and about May next year we all are bitching about 4% inflation.
  12. No, the Fed has become politicized. The cut is happening whether it should happen or not.
  13. Well this is a bit awkward. Here is who I was thinking about as a comparison. Took me awhile to realize it. I’m sure there will be a lot of debate about this, but the slightly hunched over running style with the leg movement is what reminded me. couldn’t embed. https://youtu.be/b_bAKdDWjFQ?si=D7QuDcbfTft_STfq
  14. The data on the Aggies is getting so voluminous that even those delusional dipshits are struggling to come up with “theories” to try and dispute their failures. It’s awesome.
  15. That’s the first film I’ve seen. I like his effort. He’s a bull with some moves and some speed. That explains the rating. He does have some wasted movement while he runs. I’m trying to think of a pro back with a similar gate. It’s a little Derrick Henry like, but there’s another back from 20+ years ago that’s closer. Can’t recall his name.
  16. What’s the story on the new UT Austin President? Good? Bad?
  17. That was a very fun watch today.
  18. Don’t buy used. Golf is meant to be played by overspending and never seeing a return on investment. Don’t break the Universe.
  19. I bought online the Nike hat with the old angry longhorn logo. When it arrived, I realized the pic was misleading. It was that flat billed bulbous douchebag design. Gross.
  20. I finally understand a benefit to packing cubes. When you are staying at many different places on a trip, requiring many packings and un-packings, the cubes make it faster and easier to stay organized. It also helps for keeping dirty clothes separate. Does it save space? No.
  21. Glad to see that. I hardly ever report posts but MotownHorn was unhinged and it pissed me off.
  22. So, we are finally at the inflection point I've been predicting for almost 3 years. Back then, I was involved with some commercial real estate stuff and that market was breaking due to elevated interest rates that moved up much faster and farther than the industry forecasted. However, because commercial real estate loans are multi-year borrowing, most in the industry felt it would be the 2nd half of 2025 when the industry finally started flushing out the bulk of the bad loans. That's been happening for awhile now and probably will reach its peak in the coming months/year. As a result, I really felt the stock market and the economy would hit a rough patch in late 2025. In parallel, we have the AI hype bubble finally starting to get exposed. We've all seen all the ridiculous proclamations that AI would be doing 80% of software coding by this year. That was and is a ridiculous proposition, and is similar to the internet hype that occured during the internet bubble of 2000. This bubble is not as bad as 2000, but things are definitely frothy. A very good company, Databricks, just closed financing at $100B valuation. $100B! Look for this bubble to burst over the next several months/year. In parallel, companies have been doing a good job of generating earnings. We have excessive government spending keeping that gravy train moving. That is a good counter-balance to getting into a recession, but the problem is that it is making the whole financial system even more shaky, including long-term interest rates. However, that trend can go for awhile until some world event somehow breaks the confidence of the markets. The Trump administration is doing everything it can, unintentionally, to destroy the economy in the near-term: tariffs, fewer immigrants for jobs, pissing off allies and trade partners, etc. These stagflation policies need to end up as mostly a bunch of huffing and puffing, rather than actual implementation, or it will drag the economy into a recession. The problem is that its starting to look like the real deal. These elevated prices will hit in the next 12 months, tap out the consumer, and hurt corporate earnings, possibly throwing us into recession. We can't spend our way out of the next recession like in 2020. While the lowering of interest rates will help quite a bit, the government can't just toss trillions at us this time around. That means a slow, methodical recovery that will take 24-36 months. However, I don't see a deep recession, because government spending helps and frankly Trump does have the mindset of trying to juice the economy any way he can, so eventually he will panic over the current government policy missteps and correct them. Finally, September and October are always vulnerable months for many reasons. From an investment standpoint, I'd buckle down and be prepared to hold equity assets for 24-36 months, with corrections of 15-25%. If you have a lot of cash, it's tricky. Intermediate and long-term bonds would be the normal play, but with stagflation still a possibility, it's difficult to make that bet. You could lose 12-18 percent of your principal for years in that scenario. So I'm not quite sure where to invest cash.
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