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956 Worldwide

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Everything posted by 956 Worldwide

  1. Yes, that’s the argument. There may be 15 teams with the roster to win. Three of them will be outside the top 12. No use mentioning them. One will be replaced by a G5 team. And that means you need to hope that the remaining two must navigate the autobid and committee process and be in the right league at the right time; that is far from automatic and thus far some of the better ones will be left out. And even THEN these teams are still playing as dogs in a four game series. And further to the silly MLB analogy, you cannot plug holes in a roster at the trade deadline or dip into the farm system for the playoffs. The injuries and deficiencies you own, and that’s often what derails even very good teams. The SEC as a league is fine; individual teams for sure face a tougher row. Texas, OU, Oregon, and USC likely all looking much better for bids in the former conference format.
  2. And yet, there’s a plenty good shot that BYU will be there. Or even just 3 SEC teams while four and five sit at home in favor of a ACC team with a gaudy record.
  3. Major League Baseball is a terrible example, if you want to talk about not well thought out or intelligent. MLB has two leagues and there are big/smart spenders spread across divisions of equal size where they can get to the playoffs to begin with. Which is pretty fucking important. There’s not a wildcard spot reserved for the Savanah Bananas (G5 equivalent) or an autobid for the best AAA team (ACC this year). Turn this into two conferences with pods of equal size? Ok, I’ll buy the thesis.
  4. Nothing at all new or groundbreaking about the ACC having a couple teams (Miami often among them) capable of competing with the best in the country. Nothing new about the Big XII having one really good team. The very best from those conferences were always going to be in the playoffs. And if the format changed to ā€œ12 best no matter where or we saw wild realignment, growing from 7 real contenders to 12 would change the calculus. Moving UT and OU out of the Big XII and into the SEC makes likely playoff fields less strong, not more strong under the current format. Likewise collapsing the PAC-12 and moving their best programs into the Big Ten. There’s no reason to think college parity turns G5 teams into contenders. Thus far, they’ve mostly been raided in the portal. There’s no guarantee that boosters like Campbell come in hot to make another Big XII team into a beast. Maybe someone will. But the media deals show the P2 pulling away from the ACC and Big XII in revenue. They show the ACC getting further sliced and diced into have and have notes, which doesn’t seem at all to help the middle of the conference. Those are the long-term trends we know.
  5. The parity, though, is concentrated in the P2. And in the format of 5 conference autobids, that matters less. The G5 team will always be a Cinderella shot. The Big XII and ACC between them have maybe two truly competitive rosters (Tech and Miami, with Miami underperforming). It won’t matter if the middle of the SEC or Big Ten is built to complete with the top when they are sitting at home. Maybe if we get to a point where Clemson, Miami, FSU, SMU, Pitt are playing at max potential or if someone besides TTU and BYU do real NIL game in the Big XII we have a true 10-11 team deep CFP. As it stands 10-12 are just filler.
  6. This is kind of my point— I don’t think you can find a year where 10-12 is anywhere close to 1-5 or 6. The value of the bye for AZ State was in replacing a potential loss (probability of a loss unknown) with a 100 percent guarantee they would not lose, in addition to the rest, practiced, time to get healthy. If you hypothetically place each game at a true push, they moved from a 25 percent chance to a 50 percent chance of advancing to the semis simply by not playing in the first round. But Texas was in fact a better team than them, and it was never a push. Those byes will be even more valuable and meaningful for teams that are straight seeded into them.
  7. No, it will be hard for them because they will play on the road, they will have an extra game to lose, but most importantly: they will need to win four straight games against teams that are probably better than them. Every single participant in the semifinals came from the top half of the CFP rankings. And that is WITH Boise and AZ State getting byes. There will be upsets, but the chance of pulling off wins in four straight games as either a dog or a coin flip is pretty low. And that’s what straight seeding will mean. 9-12 in the AP is ND, Texas, OU, BYU. Tell me which teams you’d be willing to call a real contender at the moment. And keep in mind that at least two of those WILL fall out for a G5 and/or ACC team.
  8. I feel like I am banging my fucking head against the wall. The title game featured the teams ranked 5 (ND) and 6 (tOSU) in the final CFP rankings. And that’s how they would have been seeded under this year’s model.
  9. Politicians got involved and demanded to move fast. Without bringing in CR, this is how DOGE layoffs that were ordered to go fast unfolded. Even without court orders people got told they were fired, then on admin leave, then fired again for another reason, then maybe rehired.
  10. Using seeding as the metric decreases the chance it will happen now that the committee uses straight seeding. The lower seeds had a better chance under the old format. This year the 10-12 seeds WILL include a G5 team, an ACC team, and maybe a 2nd place Big XII, fourth place Big Ten, or 5th place SEC team in those spots. Which one has a decent shot over the SEC/Big Ten top six plus ND and Tech over four games? BYU? Georgia Tech? Pitt? Virginia? JMU? USF? Maybe Texas has the roster to make that run if they play at their best with no coaching errors. Or if Tech if weirdness happens to strike in the CCG and they fall this far. Either will have very, very long odds. If a 10-2 ND falls this far, maybe they can. You and I both know the G5 and ACC do not have NC winners in them. You’re staking your argument on the very last of P2/Big XII/ND to get in running through four games versus teams that finished ahead of them. Possible? It will happen eventually. Very unlikely any given year? Yes.
  11. I didn’t say a word in my post about seedings. I said ā€œrankings.ā€ And Ohio State easily made it into the playoffs, they were ranked at 6 in the final CFP ranking before the playoffs. You just made up the fact that they barely got in;ā€ that team wasn’t even the lowest ranked Big Ten team. The 8-12 ranked teams last year were all pretty flawed. None of them advanced to the semifinals. (Well, Alabama didn’t get an invite).
  12. I’ve had a real arc with Pavia. At first I thought he was just a super COVID player being shoved down my throat to gin up interest in Vandy. The I begrudgingly admitted I’d love him if he was on my team. Now he’s just really punchable. Needed to knock off a really good team again to earn his mouthiness.
  13. LSU: Bad news, Kelly. You’re hired! BK: You can’t hire me! I’m fired!
  14. Ohio State was seeded 8 because last year the CFP committee didn’t do a straight seeding model. Boise and Arizona State jumped them, despite being ranked behind them in all the polls. They’d have been 6 or 7 without that.
  15. I have seen it before but the public comms from the institution have always been disciplined if they go that way: ā€œSWLSU has decided to reassess the direction and leadership of the football program. DC Cletus will take over head coaching duties on an interim basis and HC Ricky Bobby has been reassigned to other duties within the athletic department as those discussions continue.ā€
  16. I am a noted lover of books. The Iliad is maximum alpha.
  17. I didn’t think they’d be dumb enough to do this, but I was clearly wrong. There’s a procedure for firing for cause that was pretty clearly not followed. I guess they are hoping a LA court will just side with the Tigahs. At every turn they do exactly the thing that makes them the least attractive possible coaching destination. Landry is gonna end up coaching himself. Landry promising to provide a sideline tiger and producing a fat, inbred False Mike proving to be an incredible omen. The ancients would recognize this.
  18. I won’t say it will ā€œneverā€ happen because on a long enough timeline it will, but: the teams ranked from 10-12 (really more like 8-12, but I’ll be generous) are really unlikely to win a title. They may upset a team or two that could, but they won’t make a four game slog. Go back and look at past AP or Coaches polls and find a team with that ranking that really belonged on the field with the winner. 10-12 is talented teams with visible flaws.
  19. Take my rep, one of my favorite ever videos.
  20. I have no proof but I think OnlyFans and stuff is probably nuking brains in ways we can’t understand yet. Let’s take porn and add a parasocial component, and also strip away all the things that told the brain that the people in it are actors and it’s all fake. Really make it seem accessible and real.
  21. They aren’t nihilists, they have found a purpose and meaning: jacking off a whole lot in pursuit of a mental high. It’s just that the meaning they’ve settled on is disordered and crowds out alternate sources of meaning. One of my hottest takes is that all the bad stuff we used to call ā€œvices,ā€ like porn, drugs, booze, gambling, smoking, and promiscuity, are actually bad. That doesn’t mean all bad things need to be banned and brutally suppressed but removing all frictions and stigma and pretending they are value neutral or maybe good is stupid. The harm also falls disproportionately on those least equipped socially, intellectually, or temperamentally to moderate themselves. Porn should be legal, but making you ask for it at a gas station or venture out to a skeezy city limits store and park around back to hide your car was a good friction to maintain. Smoking is legal but it’s a good social friction to make it costly and to tightly clamp down on where you can do it. It’s good to make it socially shameful. Gambling shouldn’t be criminalized but you should have to go to a reservation or use a shady bookie or some shit. That is a good social friction; it’s not good to be able to make in-game prop bets tied to a credit card. Many such cases.
  22. Poland dumped the veto and a year and a half later got partitioned up. Not that the filibuster is good but just so we know the timeline.
  23. Those comparisons are good, and it’s a good play by her to try. No one is gonna stop calling her for bombshell roles because of this. But it’s smart for beautiful actresses to prove they can do something else BEFORE the sex kitten roles dry up, not when they already are.
  24. The Smashing Machine also fell really flat this year. It had Dwayne Johnson in it. I think it’s most likely that there is a limited market for Oscar-bait biopics about combat sports athletes that most people haven’t heard of. The dudes who want her to take her top off weren’t buying tickets for this anyway.
  25. Functionally Texas will be. With another loss Texas would go into a bucket with 10-2 teams from other conferences for the last CFP spot.
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