Posting this here too. Directly relevant to rankings and where teams should be relative to rankings.
Really like this graph: wins above expectation based on post-game probability. Probably as close as can be to “are you as good as your record.” Ideally you want to be dead-center and undefeated. That means you are winning because you’re consistently playing winning football. The further away you get, you begin seeing the impact of bad/good luck and opponents blowing games, and maybe coaching idiocy.
A few interesting things: voters are right to be cautious of GT and UVa, but add BYU in there too. Not to say luck can never last (it does) but they’ve already had a lot.
Likewise, the belief that Tenn is better than their record is somewhat justified. Mizzou and Miami too, for that matter.
UT and A&M are slightly above expectation but not tremendously so. Most years, some good bounces separate great from good from average seasons.
Scary for everyone: OSU’s great record appears entirely earned and justified.