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statsman

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Everything posted by statsman

  1. What is your point? Yes, upsets can and do happen. What point are you making?
  2. Disagree some what. In 2022, a TCU team that really wasn’t much better than Texas beat Michigan in the semifinal. They used Duggan as a runner, which opens a lot of stuff up in college football. It’s like a cheat code But, he had 16 carries against Michigan, and he wasn’t recovered the next week when they played Georgia. In the 12 team playoff, I think B12 teams and ACC teams can win some first round games. They call it a “puncher’s chance”. I don’t think you will see them do well the second round. Lack of size on the lines will hurt them.
  3. Alabama would be a ten point favorite over BYU in a neutral site game. They would be a TD favorite over the highest rated B12 team, ISU
  4. Ok, now that we have established that you can’t just go off the number of losses, that context matters, tell me why BYU should be in the CFP instead of Alabama. Do you think BYU is better, that they would beat Alabama? What would be the argument for BYU getting in ahead of the B12 CG loser?
  5. OK, so you claim Alabama is less deserving than BYU, because it has one more loss, and one of the two 6-6 teams that beat it, did so solidly. OK, Army has one less loss than BYU. Army lost to a CFP team, on the road, while BYU’s worst loss was at home to a 5-7 Kansas team. Do you agree Army has a better argument than BYU for an at large?
  6. I never pay much attention to those- conferences don’t play games, but teams do. Looking at it, I see there is a greater difference between the first and second conference than there is between the second and fourth.
  7. Here are the Sagarin rating final regular season numbers: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm Sagarin does a sophisticated least squares algorithm that has a goal of assigning a rating to teams that helps explain game outcomes, and therefore can predict potential game outcomes. Sagarin differentials correlate positively with Vegas point spreads and even outcomes. Texas is #2. We are half a point behind #1 NotreDame, meaning we would be half point dogs on a neutral field. That’s great for Texas, but to me, the interesting thing is the distribution at the top end of the scales. Looking at these for several years, usually the top teams have Sagarin ratings in the mid to high 90s. This year, the top teams are around 90. Does this mean there is more parity? I think so. I would attribute that to the portal, in that teams aren’t forced to go through seasons with flawed position groups, as they were before. also of note- five of the top 10 are SEC teams. Three are B1G. SMU is the lone ACC team in the top 10. The first B12 team comes in at 17.
  8. Why would BYU get in ahead of Alabama?
  9. Do we know which side of the bracket the Cotton Bowl is the semifinal for (which seeds feed it) and which side the Orange Bowl is the semifinal for?
  10. What was their reason for not allowing Bevo?
  11. Ha, ha…
  12. 25-18-1?
  13. ASU is in? Against BYU, unless they lose, in which case ISU and CU are next up?
  14. So, who is in the B12 CG?
  15. “Now, my team hasn’t ever done shit, and my conference hasn’t done shit, but teams that used to be in our conference are doing well in other conferences and other teams from the PAC are doing well in other conferences and, so…, context means nothing and all you should do for the CFP is watch the games and make a qualitative assessment!” That pretty much it? What if someone sneaks some Duncanville tape in there for the CFP to watch. Since we’re just watching the games…
  16. “Probable” does have a definition, specific for injury reports. It means “very likely to play”. A high ankle sprain is a more serious ankle sprain. He was diagnosed with it last Sunday, at the latest. These SEC injury reports are new this year. The league seems to want to have them. They are worthless if teams do not adhere to rules. If Texas knew Ewers had an ankle injury that was likely to keep him out, and reported him probable out of gamesmanship, you may think that’s a good idea. I doubt the conference does, though.
  17. After saying “probable” all week, I imagine Ewers almost has to play (to start) to avoid trouble with the league office.
  18. How in the hell does a team play in a conference CG in 2023, return 23 of 24 starters, including all the key ones, return a coaching staff intact, and go 0-9 in conference (after starting 3-0, with a win over a bowl eligible SEC team)? I thought the 1984 Longhorns had an incredible mid season collapse, but this may dwarf that.
  19. I think you’re underselling the Oklahoma economy. It’s not just meth. There is also stealing copper wire and selling it as scrap metal. Also, I Dian casinos. Also, legal cannabis products shops.
  20. I’m not sure what point you’re making. The B1G makes more money off tv than any other conference. A lot of that is due to the BTN, which is much more successful than any other conference’s. Is B1G fervor greater than the SEC’s? I doubt it. One thing I suspect, although I have no way of knowing if this is an official network metric: the B1G fanbase is more valued by advertisers than the SEC’s (or ACC’s or B12’s). Higher incomes, more wealth. The leader B12 games go to streaming. A conference network just wouldn’t have enough value to create. Baylor won the B12 in 2021. It seems like a third of their games are on streaming now. That is not a sign of health. The SEC has serious decisions to make- add a ninth game, and collect more media revenue, but possibly at the risk of jeapordizing the number of CFP participants (those losses have to go somewhere)? The B12? It has a contract through 2031. How to maintain?
  21. I am waiting for the “engineers” from Prometheus to come out and admit that humans (that they created) are the problem. To say that the Alien xenomorphs, created to be tools for exterminating sentient species, fail at killing humans, and the engineers are at a loss as to what to do.
  22. Please. Baylor at UH- 210k. Cincy at KSU- 369K. OSU at TCU- 355K. UCF at ASU- 378K. Note- each of these games involves at least one team representing a high population state. Remember what was said when the league made the adds? “Cincinnati is from a high population density part of Ohio! UH will bring the Houston market! UCF gets into Florida!”
  23. Oh, horseshit! Take a goddamned look at TV ratings of games between Minnesota and Illinois, or Michigan State and Iowa. Iowa State doesn’t sniff that in a B12 game unless they’re playing Colorado. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ I see a B1G game between Purdue and Michigan State that was viewed by 1.8M. I see A Minnesota- Rutgers game viewed by 1.2M. I’m sorry, but the lower tier B1G and SEC programs that you enjoy claiming only have the good fortune of better associates actually bring more to the table. Maybe it’s demographics, maybe it’s more living alumni, who knows? Please stop saying that the lesser B1G programs are no better than B12 teams unless you can explain why so many more people want to watch their games.
  24. In the four team playoff, since 2014, the SEC teams are 13-6. The B1G is 5-5. The Big XII (mostly OU) was 1-6. The ACC was 6-5. The PAC was 2-3. ND was 0-2. I think the SEC and B1G have an argument for more teams.
  25. Couple of thoughts: Edmund Burke: “Rudeness is how the weak try to appear strong.” statsman: “If drinking isn’t a problem for you, it can be a solution.” Hang in there.
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