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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. 80 when I'm here by myself each day, 78 when the wife works from home (3 days per week). Night is 77 with sort of an asterisk. When the Big Calamity comes and we're completely anarchic as a society Mad Max style and robbing/kiling (and driving cool but dangerously), I will definitely outlive most of you, especially if the temp outside goes above 80°.
  2. This ain't good: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/26/nearly-half-of-americans-fall-deeper-in-debt-as-inflation-boosts-costs.html This week of course all the big #'s coming in... key # of course is today's CCI numbers, and Thursday's GDP Q2 released. The icing on the cake is Friday's PCEPI data (which charts costs of goods bought by consumers... that'll tell whether Thursday's GDP report looks shaky (whatever side of 0 it's on), or pretty valid. Good chance it's negative and therefore recession. Maybe it'll skate by with a atom-sized positive #, but I doubt it. Nevertheless the longer numbers portend a more likely recession (now or into the latter half of 22). But I suppose throwing out Opposite Day memos is what you do when your team expects shitty numbers: https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-getting-ahead-expected-195337271.html And, oh yeah, 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters IS a recession. Doesn't mean a big or long one, but yeah, it's a recession. It's never been "official" but it's always the one that we've gone by for oh about 8 decades at least. So yeah, it's a recession if the number says so. So far Wall St. earnings are about 50/50 which is actually better than expected. But Wal-Mart's big bomb definitely is a major downsider for this economy. The numbers this week are probably the most critical since this whole shitty mess began in early 2020. Not only because we'll know where we've been, but as most things that get more data and fill in the gaps, we'll know where we're likely going, and at least an idea for how long.
  3. Well actually that's what it's called when you get crabs from banging someone in her dirty Jeep.
  4. Well I suppose this is technically true, it's more like two galactically different decades. Yes Tiger won his Masters in a brilliant if last-ditch effort in '19 but he really was mostly shit after 2009 and didn't do much of anything for the second 10 years of the century. Even in his 2019 Masters year he missed the cut in two of the four majors and finished 21st in the USO. I think somewhere in there he managed to crawl back up to the top 25 golfers for a very brief period before tumbling again. The magnitude of that isolated Masters win certainly propped them up even higher in golf history, but technically it was a lone desert island of only one major win in over 12 years. You know, like Larry Mize. And except for a second in the PGA a few years back, he never got closer than being in a pack fairly far back tied for 3rd in any major for the second decade. And it got noticeably worse after 2012. I think it's more accurate to say that Tiger saw that success around the turn of the century but only briefly afterwards. It boggles the mind to think what he would have achieved had he not become a narcissistic shithead, but oh well them's the breaks.
  5. Something apparently he's very used to with waitresses.
  6. Didn't realize you all were any relation:
  7. Nope. But that was really unusual, a front moving in its typical SE direction through Texas also had a typical frontal line that curved toward the SW. A number of complex factors caused this front to slow down and allow the dry line to catch up to it. A situation develop where a gravity wave outflow (i.e. the juice needed to stir up the atmosphere on an otherwise very untypical day for that) followed this dry line SW, and the different set of circumstances enabled supercell formation on a day that was very unlikely to have it. Both conditions enabled both the strength and direction of the tornado. It would take a lot of eggheaded explanation to describe exactly what happened and most are beyond the average person's understanding (and some of mine) but let's just say that the combination of factors which influenced strength, and those which influenced direction, probably a once in a 1,000 year combo together, combined to form that event. Although each of them happens by themselves somewhat frequently in spring in Texas, the two coming together at that point were very, very unusual.
  8. Got a surprising couple o' tenths last night in the rainforest here. Pretty boy on KXAN said at 6 it's all over but for once it wasn't. It was hot enough that outflows came in from the NE and stirred up enough juice to rain. That's 2 measurable rain events in the past 5 days. Better build that ark! Okay, today there is still a small chance that the storms will come in from the SE this time, but less coverage. Nevertheless enough punch (and the center of the high is farther west than forecast) that some "on the edge of the high" showers could hit us. Enough to mention at least. While these showers "unusually" came in from the NE, it's not really that weird in the summer. The lows which form in the Gulf and try to break through the usual high dome squatting on us will spin c-clockwise and drop rain from the NE. Which is what happened. Actually I was surprised that the rain made it to the Hill Country without drying up - the high can evaporate that stuff with little problem usually. But as I said the center wobbled a little farther W than predicted, so it didn't dry up the rain. For once the rain won. That said, put on your body-length ice pads, because the high is gonna wobble back - later weekend is gonna heat up and 106° or thereabouts is proally gonna happen Sunday and/or after. For today, at least there's a fighting chance Mabry don't make it to triple. Would like to see the streak broken (although most of us wouldn't know a tinker's difference between 99° and 100° - it's all mental). Remember the average high right now is about year's max - 97° - so it ain't really that much lower. I think it really starts being felt after about 103°.
  9. Judging by WH presser today, trying to soften the blow, tomorrow's report is going to be bad.
  10. One final one. Amazing... from my house thermometer
  11. Keep bringin' it on, beyotches (but I'll say a silent little brief prayer for youse, although I'm masturbating violently right now).
  12. 86° - that's EIGHTY-SIX degrees at the compound! 1.25". And still raining hard 15 minutes later.
  13. OMG it's absolutely pissing! We're about to hit an inch in only 10 minutes. I feel like Lot (with 2 hot daughters apparently) just before Sodom was axed.
  14. Man, it is trying HARD to pour here in Bee Cave, where it always rains. I can see the squall line up high almost on me, but it ain't quite here yet. And you never know if/when these heat storms will suddenly poop out. Don't fails me now!
  15. I'm putting this in here as a heads up; my DIL's dad is a big cheese at LCRA, and he sent this to me.. the supply/demand issues have been in the paper the past few days, but I find it interesting that he's sending this to me today... not sure he would if this one wasn't more of a possibility. Since this is Daily Texan, I'm simply posting this as a heads up... and that's the only reason. Make of it what you will. ERCOT is showing demand exceeding available generation today from about 1pm to 7pm so they will cut load under contract first and then roll blackouts as required. Wind is forecasted to be next to nothing at this time which is the problem. If wind picks up it will be ok, but don’t be too surprised if areas lose power today. Fuel up that generator [phd]! (I just got a new 15KW unit (and a lot of electrical work done so the house can hook up to it) so that's what he's addressing).
  16. Among other things, Jones left the planet a damn fine head of hair. RIP to great niche actor.
  17. The best way is to come clean and use whatever address you consider your true domicile - where you live, family lives, essentially live your life. You can get by for a short time if you don't put your new address as your legal one (domicile). But eventually tax and court matters will be a problem, especially if a violation of some kind. Your address is where to most easily find you the majority of time. If you're figuring temporary, you can talk to a lawyer about processing it. If it's indefinite or long-term, change it.
  18. Going on our Danube bike/boat trip in 1 1/2 months. FWIW. Yeah I know it's "touristy" but it's a long-planned family trip and we'll be just fine. I'll chime in here later if I need/want to. Germany, Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary. I'm Hungarian and Baltic in descent, and actually know some Hungarian (dad couldn't speak English until he was well in elementary school). Been there/done that for most of the places we're going, but family hasn't. Should be fun. Let me know if the river sucks (levels, blockages, etc.). Rome aftertrip but another thread, plus I got that covered, boy do I.
  19. Well, he's okay, but he's no Jorge Santana: (RIP Jorge, d. 2020)
  20. Those sticks are definitely optional.
  21. Well, whatever you like, if you're talkin' rock'n'roll, you must include something by the two individuals who more than anyone anywhere anytime influenced the R&R guitar sound - "guitar driven?" Shit, ain't nuthin' top these two: T-Bone: And the other one you know but ten thousand kids took up guitar after hearing this barrage in 1958 - there is no single riff, period, which more influenced rock and roll forever - ALL of 'em here and anyone you can name were influenced by this song, ain't no exceptions:
  22. Flew down here to just make sure there was no hurricane in Cancun. Nope, no hurricane so far.
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