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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Royalfan5

  1. For your AM livestock update, fresh beef values continue to surge as choice moves past $325, and select past $315, fresh pork is just short of $88, with everything up but hams. Hog futures have continued to surge as the fund money angles towards putting ready hogs down, and better value on June contract and out, while cattle futures remain flat, but will probably see short covering whenever we can start ramping packers back up now that we've defended the lows, but the April contract in delivery could be real squirrelly with what cash has traded being well above the board and needing to converge.
  2. It’s my one time to shine during this, and given the terrible takes I see on subject(especially on Texags, who should have somebody who knows better for fucks sake) I feel like the people here should know what’s going on.
  3. The only good thing for a lot of those guys is that they don’t own the pigs or chickens anymore. I’d be sweating bullets if I was in the Pipestone or Maschoff systems though. My Uncle that finally quit farrow to finish in 2018 has to feel pretty good right now especially since Crete is just down the road.(Ex-Farmland Plant that my Grandpa helped place there with all of the co-op stuff he did)
  4. Something like that. The biggest thing for this is guys can’t put forth the physical effort to keep up with pace while sick, and there’s not enough spare workers to fill the needed gap. The good news is the burned through plants will probably have herd immunity
  5. We’re short 40k kill on cattle a day, and 150k a day on hogs. A lot guts might like to do that but it’s not going to make any sort of difference
  6. Right, but it’s still going to lead to weirdness. I’ve got guys grassing steers until July that should be placed now, and given that March was the lowest placements ever, and April will probably break that, leverage is going to flip hard on the packers at some point. Best thing pork and chicken can do is put down the ready animals and stick in a hole, that way stuff doesn’t get too fucked on the backend.
  7. They need to open this week or were super fucked on hogs in the western corn belt. JBS Worthing needs to come back too before we lose Madison too. On the cattle front, Tyson is parking ready cattle in one my coworkers family’s feed lot by Dakota City, that should have been going to Joslin, Illinois instead ahead of their supposed restart later this week.
  8. Now it turns out that maybe it’s not closing in Crete, the mayor says it is, the Union head says they ain’t told him shit, and Smithfield is keeping quiet right now.
  9. And I was wrong Smithfield pulled the plug on Crete before Tyson did on Madison so we keep shedding pork capacities faster than I hoped. If the can get Sioux Falls up soon it’ll be a big relief
  10. They're pretty well shoulder to shoulder. Not really another way to do it.
  11. Smithfield hasn't shut Crete down yet, they pulled two in Illinois instead. Tyson-Dakota City is still supposed supposed to restart this week, and JBS in Grand Island is supposed have turned the corner. I'd just Tyson in Madison will go down before Smithfield in Crete does.
  12. Haven't checked, but probably hitting record levels like everything else.
  13. So on the afternoon livestock front, cattle packing plant runs were down 5K week on week, so we are killing about 40K less a day than we need to, some of the plants that were supposed to be back today were delayed until later in the week, hogs were down about 43K from last week, and about 150K less than we need to.
  14. https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2452.pdf The USDA breaks it up by the main cuts and the values are figured on 100lb basis on the link there. Same for pork https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2496.pdf
  15. For your AM livestock update, choice beef blew through the $300 barrier for the first time to 307.75, and select is just below $295, fresh pork moved above $80 for the first time since this got started with bellies leading but some pressure in ham and picnics. Tyson continues to fuck up at a variety of plants and that might be the biggest pinch point at the moment.
  16. I think a few people check out when recovering from something like a broken hip or something like that, but otherwise not really. One of my grandfathers went in after he lost his first leg to diabetes, and subsequently lost his other. He was in for about 8 years, my other Grandfather went in with Parkinson’s, heart failure, macular degeneration, diabetes, and bladder cancer, he lasted 6 weeks, but that’s more of a testament to my grandmother’s stubbornness and home health aides. My other grandmother spent about 18 months in with increasing dementia before passing.
  17. The burgers are better than the Runzas. They’ve got really good crinkle cut fries too. That being said the Runzas are still good just not quite them same if you grew up around Germans from Russia
  18. The Runza Drive thrus never closed. Had Swiss cheese mushroom runza and fries with French onion dip last night
  19. Also churches with no offering or communion and family groups 6 feet apart, and hair places with masks + elective surgeries
  20. One more livestock note the monthly cattle on feed report had the lightest placements of feeders on record showing the backing up in that part of the chain even as well pulled fats forward last month. That placement number will likely only last one month which will leave a hole in ready cattle this fall in all likelyhood. Same thing is happening in hogs but we don't get another report on them until June.
  21. Livestock runs were steady to end the week with about 40% of capacity likely to run tomorrow. Will probably start seeing thinner meat cases the next couple of week but if we can get more capacity back next week it should remain ok for most areas, as well as making up some on carcass weights as we back things up.
  22. Fresh pork prices did set back this morning with belly values down 24%, so we will see if run rates are coming back up with with the break today. Beef values were up again but seemed to slow down a little, and we should be getting one or two plants back today and another one on Monday.
  23. Man all the Iron Brigade guys just have to be spinning in their graves up there right?
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