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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Royalfan5

  1. Especially when people have seen empty coolers recently in the first wave of panic buying.
  2. There are disruptions because we aren't running the plants hard enough to kill the amount of animals that need to be, so animals are backing up and less meat is being processed on a daily basis. We came into this with very burdensome stocks of meat, especially of pork so we have a lot of runway on that end. The company that is in the crosshairs for having the largest plant go do has a lot of incentive to scream about disruptions to get help. The meat chain isn't well understood by the general public or the media, and lends itself to a lot of stories like this. I get called by Bloomberg and Reuters fairly often to talk about meat stuff, and the reporters just aren't very well versed in the stuff, so a lot can get lost in translation in these stories too.
  3. It's mostly the packing plant blowing that up, and a large packing plant related birthday party that spread it from JBSwift in GI, Lovett's in Hastings, and now Tyson in Lexington. Cold conditions and shoulder to shoulder in the plant is the accelarant.
  4. Shouldn't be for now. Assuming we can keep plants running at these levels we won't back up too bad, and the biggest thing will be re-orienting food service into retail channels for the time being. In Nebraska, they're now allowing restaurants to sell food out of storage as groceries to help the stranded food too.
  5. For your livestock update, cattle packing plants fairly level with yesterday around 80% of capacity with Cargill cutting a shift in Colorado on top of the other issues. Hogs were inline with yesterday at about 85% of capacity, so we are holding up much better after the big down day on Monday. Beef values are still moving higher, while pork has remained pretty flat.
  6. We are still swamped with pork to the point of pork working into export channels for the cost of packaging. We rebounded sharply slaughter runs yesterday as well, even with that plant down.
  7. I’m much more interested in knowing if we are going do anything useful for public health with the money we’re not sending the WHO.
  8. On a bacon note, belly values are up 16 bucks over the last 5 days, but remain very cheap for this time of year. The rebound in run rates was good news today, but will need to hold for the next few days to make everyone feel better. My hunch is that some of the slowdown is semi-wild cat strikes, and the packers are going have open their wallets to keep it going.
  9. Nebraska having an outlet mall attempt to re-open next week. https://www.omaha.com/money/owner-of-nebraska-crossing-outlets-plans-to-reopen-mall-this-month-amid-pandemic/article_f603e94f-87db-585b-8933-fd56b99a6865.html
  10. So on the livestock worries front, Cattle slaughter jumped from 70% of capacity to close to 80% today, hogs from 60% to about 85%, so decent progress on that front.
  11. The meat packing plant outbreak in Nebraska has been blowing up, the county it is in has tripled cases in 4 days and is almost caught up to Omaha at this point. The local has hospital has its tent ready, and has rigged up spare vents after filling up the regular ones and transferring where it could. https://www.omaha.com/livewellnebraska/our-resources-are-being-tested-grand-island-hospitals-icu-is-filling-up-fast/article_b2d1cf40-c2b1-5688-8059-af65a0cdd330.html
  12. Some people think if Daddy says it's ok to play outside, that all the other kids will be out there too magically.
  13. France is starting to reopen schools on a rolling basis May 11th.
  14. Pork packing plants nationally ran at about 60% of capacity, cattle around 70%.
  15. I'm a commodity broker with a bunch of livestock clients, and have my own cattle most of the time
  16. On the pork note, AM pork values were up just short of 5.00 a carcass with bellies up about 21 bucks, which is still cheap. Beef was up about 3 bucks a hundred on carcasses
  17. My local grocery store has cooler full of 10lb food service packs so you’ll probably have the chance to do so soon
  18. It’s the fresh bacon index now, and bacon is historically cheap right now because 70 percent typically goes through food service and cold storage is jammed full.
  19. And China’s bought a record amount of pork the last month. JBS(Brazil), and Tyson(Piggy) have major issues too. Cargill has kept it together better than the others so far, but that’s typical for them. The biggest problems right now is big numbers expended a lot ahead of the trade deal/asf and theres not any slack in the system unless Seaboard can pull another shift out of their ass somewhere labor wise.
  20. The JBS beef plant in Grand Island has almost caught Omaha for Nebraska cases. Yet, Tyson in Lexington, Cargill in Schuyler for beef, and Smithfield in Crete, and Tyson in Madison have seen nothing so far.
  21. We have so god damn much bacon in storage it’s cheaper than it was at the all time lows on 1998, and it’s been going to rendering plants to clear space
  22. We really only started to back off middle of last week, and were pulling forward ahead of that, so it’s not critical right now, and other plants are pushing chain speed where there have been less issues.
  23. For scale that plant can kill 22,000 a day out of 507,000 national capacity. This plant is getting the pub, but Tyson had a similar sized plant in Iowa go down last week. We also have a fuckload of pork in cold storage. It’s more of a farmer issue than a consumer issue at this point. Same with the JBS cattle plants battling the same issue.
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