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Hefeweizen

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Hefeweizen

  1. I honestly don’t think so.  There’s so much hope baked into Tesla stock price that if you get rid of its weirdo boss the house of cards collapses.  I would not want to be long, and I buy stonks.  They are in a weird spot right now and best case is they go horizontal for a period while they sort out their strategy.  Personally I think the cyber truck was a huge misstep and should be shit canned in favor of the smaller lower priced vehicle they’ve been promising, but that is turning an aircraft carrier.

  2. On 4/10/2024 at 9:21 PM, closetohumping said:

    One of the ugliest and most boring drives in the country.  Nothing compared to my biweekly Waco to Brownsville drive.

    Basically follows Sideways.  Just stay away from dudes chasing your car with their junk hanging out.

    • Haha 1
  3. 1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

    So, are your clients "little guys" or moneyed interests of the type who in the past supported tort reform?

    Yes?  Generally I would say the latter, although that’s a function of my work, which is obtaining new permits rather than working to prevent them from being issued.  But usually, the little people are bystanders while cities and counties are the main opposition to my clients. 

  4. 39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


    Except that’s literally untrue. I work with a group that just pulled data on that exact point for a presentation to professionals. We actually had a hypothesis that the number of disputes going to court had increased. We were wrong. Over the past several years, the number of suits filed has declined. The number of cases going trial has declined. The percentage of cases that settle at mediation has held steady.

    We had our crusade against “lawsuit abuse!” 20 years ago. It didn’t do shit except increase the profits of insurance companies, and fuck over people who had actually meritorious claims. Sure, let’s have another crusade against people’s right to hold other people accountable. Fuck it, we’ve pretty much decided to ditch the rule of law anyway, might as well finish the job. All disputes settled by violence now, let’s get it done.

    I must have touched you where the bad man did.  I can tell you that in my field, permits from the state of Texas, there has been a sharp increase in contested case hearings, so much so that SOAH is backed up like a bad toilet.  
     

    My point remains with my narrow focus.  I am personally doing more legal adjacent expert work than I ever have before.  And I only do it for clients I am already working for- I am not an expert for hire.

  5. 3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

    I’m reading that services inflation came in hot. That is not good, but is not surprising given the ridiculous increases in insurance rates. 

    And by the way, we need to get the lawyers under control. The lawsuits are getting out of control. People suck and will sue for anything and everything. 

    This last is no lie.  I spend over half my time being an expert in either litigation or administrative law cases.  Everyone is suing and lawyering up, in every jurisdiction too.  Not just big cities.  Out in BFE too.

  6. 52 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Cool, so you're uber rich. I'll keep that in mind if I never need a loan from a stranger. 

    Definitely not.  I mean, if my stonk bets pan out, I’ll be living large!
     

    I meant I can fly Alaska from MRY direct and have a reason to visit.  I’m still working for a living.  Trying to completely retire someday soon but talking to the friends who’ve done it every one of them has gone back to part time consulting.  

     

    The place I’ve stayed a couple of times right by the campus was Estancia and it was pretty cool.  If I could afford La Jolla we probably would have moved there instead of the central coast.

  7. I will be looking for recommendations soon.  Son starting UCSD in September and there’s a direct flight from Monterey to SD, so I’ll be there frequently.  
     

    I’m looking forward to my next four years in La Jolla.  

    • Hook 'Em 2
  8. 8 hours ago, BeardIP said:

    Here’s a worst-case scenario for investors, according to economists at Bank of America: “Job growth of 250k+, stronger-than-expected wage growth, and a fall in the unemployment rate would likely further price out the chance of a June cut,” they wrote in a research note this week.

    Your idea of worst case is weird.  Continued growth and no rate cut is probably 1a from best, but that’s ridiculously narrow view of the market.  I would say contraction would be significantly worse all around.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 2 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

    I think the price of uranium has bottomed in the 80s and we’ll see $120 an ounce before the end of the year.

    I took my gains in 4U off the table.  I just don’t see their price tracking well enough  with uranium to stick with it.
     

    I am awaiting a decent entry point in GERN, but holding IBRX for now.

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