What I'm hearing from senior Israeli officials about the war:
1. This phase of the war, Phase 2, which includes taking operational control of Gazan towns and neighborhoods (yet not achieving full control enemy clearance), will end soon.
They are hopeful about specific achievements in Khan Younes, where Hamas leaders are suspected to be hiding. However, there are no guarantees. They plan to target other areas down south. Israel is seeing increased Hamas attacks in areas it already has taken.
2. Phase 3 is expected to begin by mid to late January. The IDF will relocate in the north and center of Gaza, withdrawing from some areas. As I reported last week, Israel will not allow the en masse return of the Palestinian population. The argument is that these areas are still battlegrounds, and therefore, the return of civilians is unsafe. The outlook is long-term, at least a year. Many draw parallels to the IDF operations against Palestinian terror groups in the West Bank during the 2nd Intifada, which took about 2 years.
3. During Phase 3, the IDF will continue aerial assaults and ground raids, aimed at killing Hamas leaders and crippling its infrastructure and command. Israel is also preparing a plan to undermine Hamas' control of funding and taxation across Gaza.
4. Israel will be open to limited pauses in fighting, even extended ones, to facilitate more hostage deals. It is willing to release substantial numbers of Palestinian prisoners and ensure safe passage for Sinwar and Hamas leadership to leave Gaza if they free the
hostages and cease fighting.
5. The general mindset within the defense apparatus is to prevent further worsening of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, fearing it will limit Israel's legitimacy in targeting Hamas. This mindset is constantly and internally challenged by those who argue that Hamas will never be crushed as long as it is not held responsible by the Gazan civilians for their disaster.
6. The main issue for Netanyahu and the right wing is whether ending Phase phase 2 and the intensive ground assault will be perceived as being weak on Hamas.
Additionally, Netanyahu has yet to provide a clear vision for Gaza and how the war will be won. He is now committed to campaign efforts in an attempt to rescue some of his tarnished image. This is creating increased rifts in the emergency coalition.
7. All eyes are on the north. Tens of thousands of Israelis are internally displaced due to the war Hezbollah initiated immediately after Hamas attacked. The general assessment in Israel is that diplomatic attempts vis-à-vis Hezbollah will fail, and the chances of war are increasing.