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JBJ

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Everything posted by JBJ

  1. Been looking through the actual news around the commissioner meetings. and leading proposals seem to be: 16: 5 + 11 - The most likely next format that no one likes but everyone will agree to not sue over. 16: 4-4-2-2 + 4 - P2 get 4 autos, M2 get 2 autos, 4 at-large - The SEC/B1G proposal, but B12 and ACC aren't ready to grant disproportional autos. 16: 4-4-4-4 - P4 get 4 autos. - The follow up from 4-4-2-2, the B12 is reluctant to cut out the G5 in the fear that it is next on the chopping block. 24: 4-4-4-4 + 8 - ACC wants a giant playoff --- Expansion seems like ass at this point, but it's where decision-makers are heading. The B12 and ACC are probably right to not accept reality as the middle tier. I kind of don't like it either as the quality of conferences and teams changes over time, but the 4-4-2-2 format actually make the most sense at this singular moment in time. 16x 4-4-4-4 will put a lot of teams in that don't deserve to be while also blocking teams that do deserve to be. 24 just seems dumb.
  2. These are all good points. I'm not gonna go back and forth because I don't really feel strongly either way, and I don't think we've seen either team play enough quality football to really make these sort of minute judgments. The few things I'm confident in are (1) all 4 units are able to beat up on bad teams, and (2) Oregon is a good offense that has faded against good defenses (feels like they've been this way for a decade). My model favors Tech pretty decently and it's 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS thus far....so you've got that going for you.
  3. I honestly don't think they do. They mess up the dullard discussion (LSU beating a "top 5" Clemson, etc.), occasionally AP voters, but not the CFP.
  4. It's all relative, right? You can say Maiava went 25-43 for 303 against Oregon but what a lot of people would consider a top 10 QB and is not exactly comparable to Maalik going 25-44 and 281 against Tech. So, no, they've held up against good competition and dominated bad competition.
  5. A&M 35-22. JMU is still JMU, which is why it's silly to have them in the CFP.
  6. I'm not really confident in either defense, but I'm far less confident in Tech on both sides of the ball. There's nothing they could do better about it, they played the teams that they did. It's just not clear at all how they'll look against competition. Oregon's offense is the most tested unit, but has faded against good competition. I think Tech is a top defense, but has shown vulnerabilities - ASU obviously, but also KSU (Avery Johnson), and pass defense was rough early on. They are also the least tested unit in the entire playoff, so seeing vulnerabilities against their slate is not great. When Tech has the ball, we will be watching two pretty consistent but untested units. The Oregon defense has not shown vulnerabilities even against moderately better, but not great, competition. The Tech offense has taken care of business all year, but is basically as untested as their defense is. So whichever unit rises to the occasion. Model says Tech -5.5, but all the numbers surrounding that figure scream low confidence.
  7. I admit to not watching the entire presser, just clips of highlights from various sources. What did Sark say about PK specifically? He didn't. Most people are upset about this. The question was something about Will being a former head coach and what that brings to the program.
  8. And you get to ignore results when they do play.
  9. I'm 2-0 picking meaningful CFP games this year and Vegas is 0-2. Obviously, just let me pick the teams.
  10. Muschamp was allowed to basically be as involved as he wanted to be at Georgia. He is at Georgia because his son Jackson played there. When Jackson graduated and Whit (his younger son) enrolled at Vanderbilt, Muschamp stepped back from a gameday position so he could attend Vanderbilt games. All of UGA assumed he was another year away from returning to a position or DC role. Him taking a position at another school is a surprise to them and not a welcome one.
  11. Tannehill has to be the best passer in the past 3 decades. aggy seems obsessed with finding their version of VY, but they are all actually Swoopes instead.
  12. As someone who is friends with just aa many NFL fans as CFB fans, CFBNerds is 100% correct. The people who argue most for autobids are the ones not watching them. Ari Wasserman is 100% right. Everyone should play by the same rules. Make the top 12, get in. During the mid-major era, a G5 team was in most years, but we just aren't there anymore.
  13. This is why. Team can often dominate, hit cruise control, and not cover 20.
  14. JMU getting chippy shouldn't be a thing.
  15. The hurt QB thing would hold more water if the starter was good.
  16. "'m hoping they get shocked by the playing field and a team that played dog shit all year gets punished from inadequate preparation for the unknown" = "I am hoping that the Texas Tech football team is surprised by their matchups in the playoff - that complacency bias and experience asymmetry create conditions where Tech cannot prepare adequately for the upcoming match."
  17. This doesn't math. It needs to be 6 with 2 byes or just 8 no byes.
  18. This. I think they are good, but I'm not betting on them. They are equally likely to get exposed against better competition.
  19. I think we should do a Top XX playoff. They can organize bowls or a separate playoffs outside of that. Reduce the revenue share for teams that play in the playoff and keep conference revenue sharing how it is. I appreciate these programs need for financial support and think reinvesting in the broader sport is good for everyone, but there's no reason for them to playing an uncompetitive exhibition.
  20. Tech is the least proven team in the playoffs. I don't think anyone knows this.
  21. I said when it was announced that Oregon has the easiest path. Tech is good, but not like the other 3.
  22. https://www.jmu.edu/president/emeriti/samuel-duke.shtml
  23. This isn't how LLMs work. They aren't analytical tools.
  24. Yeah. Tulane and JMU seem to be well-coached and good players, but the size and speed difference makes none of that matter.
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