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JBJ

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Everything posted by JBJ

  1. There are underwriting standards they adhere to. They don't perfectly split the money but they also can't set up positions against the money coming in.
  2. Yeah...which goes back to my other post about betting on something that people decide. For a commitee that started formal discussions yesterday and probably already has concluded.
  3. Money always drives the odds. Even to form the opening lines, Vegas has private early openings and the money bet during those drives the public openings.
  4. It bugs me that sportbooks allow betting on something that gets decided. That doesn't have the randomness of a sporting event or race. You can have inside knowledge about like a player being sick during practice, but it doesn't guarantee a win still. Inside knowledge in this case...
  5. Comp teams are: Virginia, Clemson, Arizona State, South Carolina. It's LOL that one of those teams has 4 wins and one is likely the ACC Champ. Florida is #37 in my power ratings. They were #31 before they fired Billy. They aren't a great team, but they are competent.
  6. On the right track, but the problem is the scheduling not the postseason. There should be a standard, even if it's not bullet proof. Notre Dame played 5 Top 40 teams. Texas Tech played 3 Top 40 teams. We literally don't have enough data points to form a solid opinion regardless of the postseason format.
  7. Cam rambles a lot on his show (to fill time, I believe), but he has solid takes and football knowledge.
  8. Something else in Herbie's post: "where you lost" was pointed out by I believe Ruffino of all people. Texas lost at the Horseshoe, Swamp, and Hedges.
  9. Because it was all done piecemeal through lawsuits and TV contracts. There's no master plan, and the NCAA couldn't care less about football. It makes more money from WBB than football. This example is good timing for us.
  10. They lost basically the entire offensive staff and they are not good on defense. It should definitely be a discussion.
  11. This could work except that OSU has the weakest SOS behind Tech.
  12. The more I sift through the other bubble teams, the more I think we have a decent shot. --- We passed Michigan and Utah in SOR, and I think those are gimmes. It's impossible to keep Vandy above us. --- We have 3 good wins, 2 good losses, 1 bad loss. Miami has 1 good win, 2 bad losses. Notre Dame has no good wins (maybe USC?, but that a far worse win than above), 2 good losses. --- BYU and Bama seem out if they lose. Tech's SOR hits the floor if they lose, I really think this might be elimination for them as well. --- When you start comparing resumes higher up, it's really hard to keep OU above us. We hold SEC standing and h2h. ------- I think 13 is our absolute floor for this week, which might end up first out if things go chalk, but, man, there's strong arguments we end up 8 if things do go chalk.
  13. The tOSU game is also a plus data point. And Bama has a non-data point in EIU, so we will have the same overall number of data points.
  14. I haven't watched much of them this year, but they were a terrible zone team last year.
  15. Why does Virginia hate us? Did I miss something?
  16. Post-season was never the real issue.
  17. Is that 3 arrests this season?
  18. It's the S portion of S&P+. I believe it is adjusted, but Fremeau efficiency index is better to use as a standalone efficiency.
  19. Pods and mega conferences make ignoring the CCG really problematic, in fact. I really don't think you can do the beauty contest and cherry-pick data points. It goes weird places.
  20. We finished 5th, though.
  21. That's not always the case, though, which is why using ranking at the time of the game is dumb. LSU did not beat a top 5 Clemson.
  22. Vanderbilt is #14, but point taken.
  23. The funny thing about BYU campaigning is that they control their own fate. This weekend is their first round.
  24. This. I'm not sure if we should be in or not, but what would really get me riled is unequal treatment. Which means Bama is out if they lose and so is the loser of Tech/BYU.
  25. This is a valid way to calculate it, but as far as using it for selection criteria, they should be using a generic 10th-ranked team because that's generally the cutoff. I use two measures of SOR and this is one of them.
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