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JBJ

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Everything posted by JBJ

  1. Overranked: 5 Texas Tech - abysmal SoS. It's seriously G5 tier. I just don't see how anyone could possibly rank them above Oregon. They could probably fall 3-4 spots with no complaints. 8 Oklahoma - feels like the committee just swapped them and Bama due to h2h. But the truth is that Bama has a top 10 SOS and I don't think h2h overcomes that. I'd swap them back. 13 Utah - poor SOS with two losses to boot 18 Virginia - not sure what the committee is even doing here. My poll predictor has them at 28. There's no redeeming stats or qualities that might make them a hidden gem. 21-25 Feels like the committee gives up once they reach this point. Tulane is somewhat justifiable as they have a tough schedule for a G5 (it's tougher than Tech's and comparable to Utah). I don't understand leaving off Washington, Mizzou, Iowa, Illinois, LSU for these teams except they want to avoid a B1G/SEC bias but the reality is what it is this year. I'd have North Texas over Tulane for now, but I suppose that'll work itself out. Finally, 1 Ohio State - I completely understand why they are here, but no one is pointing these things out, so I feel I must. This must be the easiest P2 schedule and if it weren't for Tech, it'd arguably be the easiest P4 schedule. How they managed to do this in the B1G with Texas non-conf is wild. Replace Texas with a rust belt directional school and it's actually worse then Tech's schedule. I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere despite people complaining about Indiana and aggy getting an easy ride.
  2. Taafe should be green dog. McDonald is spy. ---- The other one is cover 3 and CB should have seen the TE release.
  3. To win the playoffs, we need to beat 3 playoff teams....which we likely will already have done if we make it. It's crazy talk to think we won't compete.
  4. Is the color on my TV broken?
  5. All 22 doesn't come in 4k. Trust me that the WR is about catch the ball in the top left and that's Arch on the far right.
  6. Squaring up on blockers (two-gapping) most likely. I don't understand the criticism because we are somewhere top 10 in havoc rate. Maybe just for pass rush, but I don't think we really have an issue there either. Roy's a smart guy, but I think this is just a preference for philosophy. LB is one of the harder positions to learn and be good at. It just takes a lot of snaps to get the feel.
  7. Does not. It is W-L against SOS. Basically a measure of pure resume, no eye-test.
  8. At least we are back to MBTF standards.
  9. As a former DB who has excellent hands, I don't think I would have caught it but it would have bounced threw my hands hard enough to go out the back of the endzone.
  10. Bringing maths to the discussion from my model: On (not) playing tOSU: Beating a patsy would improve our SOR from 15 to 12. All else the same, would not change our current ranking or improve it one spot in the poll. Beating an average P4 team instead would improve our SOR from 15 to 11 and probably good for one spot in the poll. ----- Win over aggy improves our SOR to 10 and is likely worth two spots, depending on style points. ----- My interpretation is that SOR is not our issue this year. Failure to play complete games and really put away and dominate average teams is the bigger issue.
  11. An elite edge can have a similar impact as an elite QB. Those are the two positions who can make enough plays on their own to make an impact.
  12. Notre Dame plus SEC. It's one of the easiest SEC schedules, but it still isn't Boston College and Cal.
  13. 1 Ohio State (1) 2 Indiana (2) 3 Texas A&M (3) 4 Georgia (4) 5 Texas Tech (5) 6 Ole Miss (6) 7 Oregon (7) 8 Oklahoma (8) 9 Notre Dame (9) 10 Alabama (10) 11 BYU (11) 12 Utah (12) 13 Miami (13) 14 Texas (17) 15 Vanderbilt (15) 16 Michigan (18) 17 USC (15) 18 Virginia (19) 19 Tennessee (20) 20 Tulane (24) 21 Arizona State (25) 22 Washington (NR) 23 Missouri (22) 24 Iowa (NR) 25 Illinois (21) My guess. 20+ is a crapshoot and I haven't really agreed with the teams the committee has put there.
  14. They pulled Arch with 398 total yards.
  15. 50 feels nice.
  16. Arch made a legit catch there.
  17. This. Threatened and it's more of a judgement call. The OT, TE, or even the RB could probably react to that and be okay.
  18. Arch did have to step around a rusher, but zero.chance the OL holds up that long at the beginning of the year.
  19. They used to just tell us. "Coverage starts at 3:30, 4:00 kick."
  20. These OU uniforms are ugly. How did they pass approval?
  21. And North Texas
  22. We do see that. Every below 0.500 team has one of these wins except Arkansas and Kentucky. USCe over VT, Kentucky; Auburn over Baylor; Miss State over Arizona State; Florida over Texas.
  23. This chart does a really good job of showing the relative strength and parity of each conference. Vertical is a power rating. Horizontal is meaningless, it just spreads out each conference evenly with a little jitter to avoid overlaps. You can see Ohio State in the top left to Oklahoma State in the bottom right. The bold black lines are how I generally group teams to give a brief look at resume. Above the first black line are contenders. Obviously one team is favored when they play each other but it's not generally considered an upset to lose against these teams. I guess it's the "good loss" category. For reference, the teams just above this line in each conference are Miami, Utah, Oregon, and Oklahoma. The lower bold black line is basically the Mendoza line of college football. Teams above are upset watch teams, and below the black line generally have no chance. Dangerous teams who are not good losses, but still possible upsets. This year it just happens to be exactly the top 40 teams. For reference, the teams just above this line in each conference - teams with the slightest chance to upset a contender - are Cincy, Virginia, Nebraska, and Florida. And just below - teams just outside reach of an upset - are Arizona State (who actually did beat Tech this year), Clemson, Northwestern. For SOS, a good quick comparison is to look with is how many teams there are in each group to play: Texas: 4+5 (#1 SOS in my model when actually calculated out) Notre Dame: 2+3 (#34 SOS) TxTech: 1+1 (#50 SOS) So for the SEC: this is the first year I've ever seen (going back over 20 years) an entire conference above the Mendoza line. In fact, I believe in the "no bad teams" B12 year that 4 teams were still below this line. Which means, for this one year, the SEC is exactly what the pundits have been wishing it were for 2 decades: a conference where a single bad game on any Saturday of the season actually does sink the boat.
  24. It's the opposite, though. SEC has a lot of parity and a lot of capable teams. It's like a generationally strong bottom of the conference this year. I'll post some stuff from the model later tonight because you are thinking of it completely wrong.
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