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Donald Trump 2018


TheFlyingBoat

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He’s right and I agree with him. What on earth makes you believe anything changes? He’s untouchable among his base, which includes most elected republicans.
I'm leaning this way, too. A good friend of mine--smart, TexasEx, successful in sales, animal rights advocate--is a full on Trump supporter. Several of us were discussing this recently & when confronted with Trump's racist underpinnings she simply replied that his personal failings were not a priority for her. She wants lower taxes/elimination of inheritance tax. That's it. Nothing else matters.
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30 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

If Ds take Congress, 90% chance of impeachment (no conviction, but neuters him for next 2 years).  Ds take Congress unless they squeeze enough votes out of good economy and blacks kneeling (80% chance Ds take Congress).  So I guess that means  I see a 72% chance of impeachment. Maybe 10-20% chance of conviction.  

I don't think Pelosi will go for impeachment.

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6 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

 

 


Manafort is a brave man according to DOTUS

 

you can already see the pardon narrative developing.  He is in a tight spot though, because he's got to get this narrative built and pardon executed quickly, before next months trial, which is most definitely all about COLLUSION.

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I don't think anyone has doubted that the Senate would never convict.  The arguable point is that we are in the end days of the Republic.  I'm starting to see enough blowback, even on the right, that it feels like the majority are saying "enough".  Once those precious seats in Congress are on the line, you'll see a good number of legislators change their tune.  Of course, some are likely to get caught up in some of the influence & money laundering investigations, which is almost surely why they are keeping quiet right now (I'm talking about you Paul Ryan), but ultimately these guys are not party over country, they are self-interest over country, and they will go where the wind takes them.

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Trump will resign before the end of his first term.  His only real chance to stay out of jail when he leaves the White House is via pardon by a sitting Republican President. The only way he can make sure that happens is to leave in such a way that Pence assumes the Presidency immediately after him.

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8 minutes ago, Gardner Barnes said:


Honestly, I do. His arguments have won me over. The Senate will protect him. The Trumpkin are just too loud for the GOP to change right now.

When Pence decides to make his move he will have a few allies and be able to sell the vp slot as well as a couple key cabinet positions. The Kochs and friends will buy a few more and some just hate Trump.

There are estimates that as many as 14 senators were ready to vote against him as of June.

I think the Senate will get to 67 in under 8 months.

 

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57 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:
1 hour ago, 'stache said:

He’s right and I agree with him. What on earth makes you believe anything changes? He’s untouchable among his base, which includes most elected republicans.

I'm leaning this way, too. A good friend of mine--smart, TexasEx, successful in sales, animal rights advocate--is a full on Trump supporter. Several of us were discussing this recently & when confronted with Trump's racist underpinnings she simply replied that his personal failings were not a priority for her. She wants lower taxes/elimination of inheritance tax. That's it. Nothing else matters.

I really do respect this. Not in the "let me say I respect both sides' opinions because I'm civil" way, but in the "if you're truly not racist then just admit that your money and greed is more important that your fellow Americans' well-being to you so that I can know exactly why to not respect *you*" way. At least be upfront, I can accept that and move along, because your world-view is of no concern to me at that point.

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11 minutes ago, Kringelbert Fishtybuns said:

 

Can you just wander into court and start pleading guilty to things that aren't against the law?  How would sentencing go - the judge just makes up shit on the fly?  

Trump Foundation, the institution and leadership (Trump, DonJr, Ivanka, Eric) have a date next month in NY civil court about this very thing and other charitable self dealing.  It sounds like they may have to make a personal appearance and findings could lead to criminal referral.  Again, this is in a few weeks.  Donald's reality testing is shot.

Edited by triplehorn
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Glad that y'all see how this is going.

1 -- the Senate will never convict, Trump is bulletproof.  A criminal syndicate (the GOP) runs this country right now.  We make fun of countries that are run by cartels.  We should be making fun of ourselves.

2 -- you can see that he's already committing to the narrative of "Manafort got a raw deal and was persecuted by eleventy angry democrats."  The pardon is coming.

3 -- and you also see the narrative that "the campaign finance stuff Cohen pleaded to isn't even a crime." Yes, they're just making that up - you think that matters?  Cult 45 believes whatever you tell them.

All bullets fired yesterday have already been neutralized, as far as the base is concerned. 

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And if the base is unmoved, then the party is unmoved.  Which means the Senate is unmoved.  

The Senate is our failsafe.  And our failsafe has failed.  For the thousandth time, nothing matters except whether the base wavers, and because nothing matters to the base except what Trump tells them to believe, nothing that happens actually matters.  

What we're dealing with is unprecedented.  People keep talking and analyzing this as if we were dealing with a political party and voters.  We're not.  The psychology is entirely different.  We're dealing with a cult, led by a criminal syndicate.  That's the operative psychology.  You don't defeat those things with facts and reason.  You don't defeat them without getting your hands quite dirty.

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The 35% of voters who are Trumpkins will keep pressure on the R senators. Also, I can't help but think back to Kevin McCarthy's comment behind closed doors about Trump/Rohrabacher getting $ from the Russians. Wonder how many other Rs are neck deep as well?

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41 minutes ago, J.R. said:

you can already see the pardon narrative developing.  He is in a tight spot though, because he's got to get this narrative built and pardon executed quickly, before next months trial, which is most definitely all about COLLUSION.

Crazy to think he can pardon Manafort and stop next month’s trial.  

And I think he’ll do it.  

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1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Does anyone other than Brisket truly believe that Trump’s presidency stays intact and that he remains in office?

 

I still have my doubts because it's clear Trump is an unsustainable stain on the WH right now, but when the heavy charges start dropping re coordination with PutinRF re cash infusions and all things cyber, it'll be over.  Don't know what that will look like, but it won't be the dance we're witnessing today.  And Mike Pence will never assume the office of the President.  He was picked by Manafort because he's a wash-up that is willingly complicit to the core.

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12 minutes ago, retread said:

The 35% of voters who are Trumpkins will keep pressure on the R senators. Also, I can't help but think back to Kevin McCarthy's comment behind closed doors about Trump/Rohrabacher getting $ from the Russians. Wonder how many other Rs are neck deep as well?

How many got money from the NRA?

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57 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

 

 


Manafort is a brave man according to DOTUS

I don't understand why he never really protected Cohen. After the initial raid, he did say it was horrible that Cohen's office was ransacked or whatever but after that, he kind of left Cohen hang out to dry. Distanced himself. If Cohen knows all the secrets, you should have been promising pardons.

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9 minutes ago, TornACL said:

This whole nonsense about he beat "more than half the charges" is embarrassing. 

It's like a patient laying on a morgue slab with 8 gunshot wounds and everyone celebrating the fact that the attacker missed ten times! 

Except the gun just jammed on those 10 rounds.  Those billets still might fill up his already dead corpse.  

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5 minutes ago, sachick said:

I don't understand why he never really protected Cohen. After the initial raid, he did say it was horrible that Cohen's office was ransacked or whatever but after that, he kind of left Cohen hang out to dry. Distanced himself. If Cohen knows all the secrets, you should have been promising pardons.

promising pardons to others to protect yourself is obstruction of justice and ultimately led to Nixon's resignation. 

Edited by Longhorn94
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33 minutes ago, RayDog said:

When Pence decides to make his move he will have a few allies and be able to sell the vp slot as well as a couple key cabinet positions. The Kochs and friends will buy a few more and some just hate Trump.

There are estimates that as many as 14 senators were ready to vote against him as of June.

I think the Senate will get to 67 in under 8 months.

 

I love the optimism, guy.  I really do.  But it's misplaced.

If I'm a Republican senator--and let's just stipulate for a minute that if I'm a Republican senator, I almost certainly come from a very Republican state--what's my play here?  Toss out Trump?  Then what?  

Then let me tell you--Trump isn't going to go back to Yorba Linda and quietly live out the next two decades in self-imposed political exile.  He'll go to Trump Tower with a twitter machine in his tiny hands.  He'll feel no shame.  He'll feel no obligation not to criticize those in the political arena after he's departed.  That twitter machine will be on full blast, because it's all Executive Time all the time.

And if you were a Republican senator who opposed him, then a lot of that twitter machine time is going to be devoted to you.  And who are your Republican voters going to believe (and yeah--you only care about Republican voters in most places in which Republicans hold the Senate seats)--you or their orange god?  You think you can reach them and explain yourself before they read Trump's twitter screed against you?  

You're more likely to get a 12th Century baron to betray his feudal lord than you are to get a Republican senator to betray Donald Trump (for exactly the same reasons).

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GoLL with an excellent post above. Everybody read that one twice.

 

 

I don't understand why he never really protected Cohen. After the initial raid, he did say it was horrible that Cohen's office was ransacked or whatever but after that, he kind of left Cohen hang out to dry. Distanced himself. If Cohen knows all the secrets, you should have been promising pardons.

Because that’s not how an abuser manages a strained relationship. The power of abuse is the promise of a reward that never, ever comes. The only reward for compliant behavior is varying degrees of abuse and degradation. An abuser works to train those under his control to think that taking the bullet isn’t just honorable, but redemptive.

That’s why when their victim walks away the spell is broken: they realize that they really were better off without it, so long as they can stay out of the abuser’s reach for good.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I love the optimism, guy.  I really do.  But it's misplaced.

If I'm a Republican senator--and let's just stipulate for a minute that if I'm a Republican senator, I almost certainly come from a very Republican state--what's my play here?  Toss out Trump?  Then what?  

Then let me tell you--Trump isn't going to go back to Yorba Linda and quietly live out the next two decades in self-imposed political exile.  He'll go to Trump Tower with a twitter machine in his tiny hands.  He'll feel no shame.  He'll feel no obligation not to criticize those in the political arena after he's departed.  That twitter machine will be on full blast, because it's all Executive Time all the time.

And if you were a Republican senator who opposed him, then a lot of that twitter machine time is going to be devoted to you.  And who are your Republican voters going to believe (and yeah--you only care about Republican voters in most places in which Republicans hold the Senate seats)--you or their orange god?  You think you can reach them and explain yourself before they read Trump's twitter screed against you?  

You're more likely to get a 12th Century baron to betray his feudal lord than you are to get a Republican senator to betray Donald Trump (for exactly the same reasons).

I have no doubt that Trump will pull a Howard Hughes and retreat to his penthouse or to Florida, and that he'll spend his days tweeting like crazy.

However, we had 80,000 votes between three states that gave us Trump instead of Hillary.  That margin will be gone in 2020, because Hillary isn't on that ticket, and support of Trump will be a negative for many voters, arguably as much of a negative as Hillary was in 2016.

This 35% that everybody fears, where were they in 2008 when a decorated Vietnam hero was running against Barrack Hussein Obama?  Where were they in 2012?

The GOP doesn't have some kind of magical lock on the country.  We are less than 5 years removed from a Democrat-led Senate, and less than 10 years removed from a Democrat-House, and we are just a few years removed from a Kenyan from Chicago named Barrack Hussein Obama running the White House for 8 years.  That's not even getting into demographic changes affecting 2020 and 2024.

If Hillary isn't on a ticket, and Trump isn't, how much power do they hold if you don't have a huge chunk of people who were mainly showing up to vote against Hillary in 2016?

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Hell, Wyoming snubbed Trump this week.

There's a couple of Republican Senators that aren't going to have to worry about that 35%.

Wyoming's sole Representative, Dick Cheney's daughter, slammed Trump over the Russia stuff, so she's not worried about that 35%.

Flip a Senate seat or two in 2018, put a lot of Senators at risk of a blue wave in 2020, and see where we are at this time next year.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
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