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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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1 minute ago, Liquor and Poker said:

“By and large” nobody dies of most diseases. But that doesn’t get me there.  

I should be specific - of the deaths in Travis County the 20 to 29 age group make up 0.78% of them. (6 of 767)

the 30 to 39 group comprise 1.56% (12 of 767), the 40 to 49 age group make up 4.04% of all deaths (31 of 767)

from a mortality perspective.

The 20 to 29 age group have a mortality rate of 0.03%

the 30 to 39 age group have a mortality rate of 0.08%

the 40 to 49 age group have mortality rate of 0.27%

So I stand by my statement that if they get sick, that by and large they will not die.

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More good news today for Travis County. 98 cases today, moved to 197 people hospitalized with only 22 admits. The 7 day moving average for admits is 23.71 and the 7 day moving average has declined for 5 straight days. To me Travis County should move from Stage 4 to Stage 3 but with Abbott & Adler fighting over the mask mandate I don't see Adler making that move as it be seized by Abbott/Paxton as a sign that Austin is speaking out of both sides of its mouth.

Just know for those of you who have been following the data that Travis County is in the best spot it has been in in some time (it has been since 11/6 that our 7 day moving avg for admits was <24/day & since 11/17 that we have been <200 people hospitalized). Stay frosty & let's try not to fuck it up over Spring Break.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/12 vs 3/11 0 8 5 20 22 13 18 6 4 2 98
% of Daily Change 0.00% 8.16% 5.10% 20.41% 22.45% 13.27% 18.37% 6.12% 4.08% 2.04%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.15% 10.11% 25.59% 20.85% 15.06% 11.43% 6.75% 3.30% 2.19%  
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15 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

More good news today for Travis County. 98 cases today, moved to 197 people hospitalized with only 22 admits. The 7 day moving average for admits is 23.71 and the 7 day moving average has declined for 5 straight days. To me Travis County should move from Stage 4 to Stage 3 but with Abbott & Adler fighting over the mask mandate I don't see Adler making that move as it be seized by Abbott/Paxton as a sign that Austin is speaking out of both sides of its mouth.

Just know for those of you who have been following the data that Travis County is in the best spot it has been in in some time (it has been since 11/6 that our 7 day moving avg for admits was <24/day & since 11/17 that we have been <200 people hospitalized). Stay frosty & let's try not to fuck it up over Spring Break.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/12 vs 3/11 0 8 5 20 22 13 18 6 4 2 98
% of Daily Change 0.00% 8.16% 5.10% 20.41% 22.45% 13.27% 18.37% 6.12% 4.08% 2.04%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.15% 10.11% 25.59% 20.85% 15.06% 11.43% 6.75% 3.30% 2.19%  

You are correct sir 

 

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Another really good day for Travis County. 79 new cases and 21 admits. Only 178 people in the hospital. Things moving in the right direction.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/13 vs 3/12 2 3 8 24 22 13 3 2 1 1 79
% of Daily Change 2.53% 3.80% 10.13% 30.38% 27.85% 16.46% 3.80% 2.53% 1.27% 1.27%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.15% 10.11% 25.59% 20.86% 15.06% 11.43% 6.75% 3.30%

2.19%

 
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1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

Almost a quarter of the state's population at least partially vaxxed while cases continue to drop.  Less than 3 months ago Texas was at 25,000 cases in a day.

 

If you assume 30% have gained immunity through infections, we are roughly at 50% of the population with immunity.  If the remaining 50%, probably 40% of them are young and healthy enough to not have any reasonable risk of getting hospitalized.  So really only 30% of people, comprised of olds/feebles who refuse to be vaccinated and middle aged folks who haven’t been eligible until this week.  At this point it would be very surprising to me if hospitalizations weren’t below their 5/1/20 numbers by 5/1/21.

One disappointing is that I have not seen any evidence that health officials are stepping up test and trace as this thing winds down.  Now that the numbers have decreased, this should be seen as an opportunity to eradicate covid in certain areas through hard core test and trace programs.

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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

One disappointing is that I have not seen any evidence that health officials are stepping up test and trace as this thing winds down.  Now that the numbers have decreased, this should be seen as an opportunity to eradicate covid in certain areas through hard core test and trace programs.

Bingo.  We are approaching the point of a pandemic where the next, and effective public health approach is to functionally "hunt it down and kill it where it hides."  No, you won't completely eradicate it.  But an aggressive test and trace can squash ongoing and future outbreaks before they pick up steam, meaning the society at large won't have to take harsh measures to address future outbreaks.  And once the incidence of disease drops significantly -- like it's doing -- this test and trace approach becomes much easier to accomplish.

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Wife and I left the kids with their aunt on Saturday and went to SA overnight to party. We're two weeks after our first Pfizer shot which is like 90% effective after two weeks, and we were comfortable taking our chances since we're both in pretty good shape and exercise frequently, etc.

It was awesome. First time we'd been out of the house without the kids in a long time. But my god, you'd have thought Covid was literally over with. La Cantera was a shit show, took me four tries to find somewhere to watch the Texas game while she shopped. Top Golf had a four hour wait. Everything was just slammed. I guess spring break + stimmies + people relaxing on Covid a bit. It was good to see stuff kind of back to normal because I know those retail and travel businesses have been getting hit hard, but damn it was crazy.

It won't surprise me at all if we see a bit of a plateau or even some bouncing up and down for a bit until more of the population is vaccinated. Not really a big deal because the metrics that matter (hospitalizations and deaths) are going to stay pointing down. And if we don't see a surge from this weekend peaking up in a week or so, then there's never going to be another one and this shit really is over. We had to find some hipster bars closer to downtown to even find a place to get a drink and a chair to drink it on.

 

Also PSA: Uber is an absolute shit show right now. Cost us $50 to get from La Cantera to downtown-ish. Everything is surge. Driver told us that a lot of drivers still aren't driving but there's huge demand because people are getting out in huge numbers again. Said she was having her best night ever as a driver.

Edited by BradInATX
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Travis County with another very low case count yesterday with only 77 cases. Back to back <80 days (first time since 10/4-10/5).

18 admits yesterday and there are 180 people in the hospital.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/14 vs 3/13 1 4 9 23 15 13 8 3 0 1 77
% of Daily Change 1.30% 5.19% 11.69% 29.87% 19.48% 16.88% 10.39% 3.90% 0.00% 1.30%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.15% 10.11% 25.60% 20.86% 15.06% 11.42% 6.74% 3.30% 2.19%  
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1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Wife and I left the kids with their aunt on Saturday and went to SA overnight to party. We're two weeks after our first Pfizer shot which is like 90% effective after two weeks, and we were comfortable taking our chances since we're both in pretty good shape and exercise frequently, etc.

It was awesome. First time we'd been out of the house without the kids in a long time. But my god, you'd have thought Covid was literally over with. La Cantera was a shit show, took me four tries to find somewhere to watch the Texas game while she shopped. Top Golf had a four hour wait. Everything was just slammed. I guess spring break + stimmies + people relaxing on Covid a bit. It was good to see stuff kind of back to normal because I know those retail and travel businesses have been getting hit hard, but damn it was crazy.

It won't surprise me at all if we see a bit of a plateau or even some bouncing up and down for a bit until more of the population is vaccinated. Not really a big deal because the metrics that matter (hospitalizations and deaths) are going to stay pointing down. And if we don't see a surge from this weekend peaking up in a week or so, then there's never going to be another one and this shit really is over. We had to find some hipster bars closer to downtown to even find a place to get a drink and a chair to drink it on.

 

Also PSA: Uber is an absolute shit show right now. Cost us $50 to get from La Cantera to downtown-ish. Everything is surge. Driver told us that a lot of drivers still aren't driving but there's huge demand because people are getting out in huge numbers again. Said she was having her best night ever as a driver.

Welcome to San Antonio. Covid hasn’t existed here for months 

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Similar experience as Brad, we hit our two week shot #2 mark on Saturday and went to alamo south lamar and then tried to go to Loro afterwards.

Holy shit was that place packed. We skipped it and went elsewhere because we didn't want to wait. But driving past every restaurant on lamar was full.

And then we realized we're married with kids. It's been relatively easy to hunker down at home. But if I was a single 30 something during a pandemic, that isolation would've ended real quick. Your group of friends that you're comfortable with would expand until you finally caught it I'm guessing.

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25 minutes ago, smoky said:

Similar experience as Brad, we hit our two week shot #2 mark on Saturday and went to alamo south lamar and then tried to go to Loro afterwards.

Holy shit was that place packed. We skipped it and went elsewhere because we didn't want to wait. But driving past every restaurant on lamar was full.

And then we realized we're married with kids. It's been relatively easy to hunker down at home. But if I was a single 30 something during a pandemic, that isolation would've ended real quick. Your group of friends that you're comfortable with would expand until you finally caught it I'm guessing.

Yeah, being fully vaxxed, we looked to go out to dinner on a whim Friday night.  Every place even REMOTELY higher end was fully booked.  It was eye-opening.

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20 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

One disappointing is that I have not seen any evidence that health officials are stepping up test and trace as this thing winds down.  Now that the numbers have decreased, this should be seen as an opportunity to eradicate covid in certain areas through hard core test and trace programs.

That is happening in some locations (e.g., UC San Diego tests waste water from each residential facility and when Covid is found - measures are put in place to snuff out the micro-local outbreak). Texas may be different. 

https://www.lajollalight.com/news/story/2021-03-15/sewage-handling-robots-help-ucsd-team-predict-coronavirus-outbreaks-in-san-diego

Smruthi Karthikeyan and the liquid-handling robotic platform used by UCSD researchers.

Edited by washparkhorn
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11 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

That is happening in some locations (e.g., UC San Diego tests waste water from each residential facility and when Covid is found - measures are put in place to snuff out the micro-local outbreak). Texas may be different. 

https://www.lajollalight.com/news/story/2021-03-15/sewage-handling-robots-help-ucsd-team-predict-coronavirus-outbreaks-in-san-diego

Smruthi Karthikeyan and the liquid-handling robotic platform used by UCSD researchers.

Bear Grylls approves this message.    

 

Methodologies may vary.

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5 hours ago, smoky said:

 But if I was a single 30 something during a pandemic, that isolation would've ended real quick. Your group of friends that you're comfortable with would expand until you finally caught it I'm guessing.

I'm old enough to have went through the chicken pox party phase.  If I was single, 15 years younger, and 20 pounds lighter, and I saw a friend post on FB that they had it, I'd be texting them that I'm on my way over.

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10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm old enough to have went through the chicken pox party phase.  If I was single, 15 years younger, and 20 pounds lighter, and I saw a friend post on FB that they had it, I'd be texting them that I'm on my way over.

Same here but 30 pounds. Maybe 35. 40 tops. 

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184 cases today in Travis County. 16 admits. 182 people hospitalized. Little more of a spike in cases than I would have expected but I love the low admit numbers. All of the 60+ categories are below their pandemic to date share so that is good news as well.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/15 vs 3/14 -1 12 26 42 41 28 19 12 4 1 184
% of Daily Change -0.54% 6.52% 14.13% 22.83% 22.28% 15.22% 10.33% 6.52% 2.17% 0.54%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.15% 10.12% 25.59% 20.86% 15.06% 11.42% 6.74% 3.29% 2.18%  
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When do we expect to see the reopen bump if there will be one? Two weeks?
If there is one we'd start to see it this week. But it's going to be a purely cases spike, if we see one, imo. Not hospitalizations or deaths. Any future spike, or more likely plateau, will be pretty toothless since a majority of super high risk are now protected.
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On 3/14/2021 at 7:15 PM, Brisketexan said:

Bingo.  We are approaching the point of a pandemic where the next, and effective public health approach is to functionally "hunt it down and kill it where it hides."  No, you won't completely eradicate it.  But an aggressive test and trace can squash ongoing and future outbreaks before they pick up steam, meaning the society at large won't have to take harsh measures to address future outbreaks.  And once the incidence of disease drops significantly -- like it's doing -- this test and trace approach becomes much easier to accomplish.

Time to create the "Covid Gestapo"!!! 

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If there is one we'd start to see it this week. But it's going to be a purely cases spike, if we see one, imo. Not hospitalizations or deaths. Any future spike, or more likely plateau, will be pretty toothless since a majority of super high risk are now protected.
San Antonio's COVID dashboard showed a doubling of daily cases yesterday. This evening after 7 is when it will update and show if that was a one-off spike, which is common due to data reporting quirks, or the beginnings of a possible trend up.
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1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

San Antonio's COVID dashboard showed a doubling of daily cases yesterday. This evening after 7 is when it will update and show if that was a one-off spike, which is common due to data reporting quirks, or the beginnings of a possible trend up.

My guess is that's too big to be anything but a "forgot to add these" error.  It amazes me how bad the whole reporting process continues to be. 

Edited by Liquor and Poker
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Report from yesterday that I haven't seen discussed that includes some interesting and somewhat encouraging data:

Statewide Study Shows Evidence Of Significant COVID-19 Antibodies In Children

Children may become an important factor in helping Texas and the U.S. reach COVID-19 herd immunity, according to preliminary results of an ongoing statewide study.

The research looks at the presence of antibodies for COVID-19 in people across Texas. Preliminary results from thousands of blood samples and patient surveys say between 14 and 24% of Texans have COVID antibodies due to past infection.

What’s more, study contributor Sarah Messiah said, about 30% of children ages 5 to 19 sampled in the study had antibodies.

“Children actually have a higher seroprevalence than adults do,” said Messiah, a professor of epidemiology, human genetics and environmental sciences at UTHealth School of Public Health in Dallas. She noted that over half of children with antibodies exhibited no symptoms of the disease.

A large portion of children with antibodies in the general population could help the state and country reach “herd immunity.” That's when the spread of the virus drops because enough people have had the disease or have been vaccinated.

“Children have not been a part of this conversation,” Messiah said. “Yet think about the households that have children in them.”

Much of the discussion around herd immunity has focused on adults. Experts have said herd immunity could require up to 80% immunity in the population.

On a call with reporters last week, the Department of State Health Services said it did not have a “definitive answer” as to when Texas would reach herd immunity.

“The science is still ongoing about [herd immunity],” said Imelda Garcia, DSHS associate commissioner for laboratory and infectious disease services. “Herd immunity at the state level is one thing. Herd immunity within your community and where you’re navigating is another piece.”

The antibody study, called Texas CARES, is a partnership between UT Health and the Texas Department of State Health Services. Research will continue into the summer.

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Only 56 cases in Travis County today! Lowest since 10/18/20. Admits jumped to 34 from the nice lows the past couple of days. 179 people in the hospital.

All in all things still looking good.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/17 vs 3/16 0 0 6 14 11 10 7 3 5 0 56
% of Daily Change 0.00% 0.00% 10.71% 25.00% 19.64% 17.86% 12.50% 5.36% 8.93% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.14% 10.12% 25.61% 20.85% 15.07% 11.42% 6.74% 3.30% 2.18%  
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12 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Only 56 cases in Travis County today! Lowest since 10/18/20. Admits jumped to 34 from the nice lows the past couple of days. 179 people in the hospital.

All in all things still looking good.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/17 vs 3/16 0 0 6 14 11 10 7 3 5 0 56
% of Daily Change 0.00% 0.00% 10.71% 25.00% 19.64% 17.86% 12.50% 5.36% 8.93% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.14% 10.12% 25.61% 20.85% 15.07% 11.42% 6.74% 3.30% 2.18%  

Hope that 34 is a major outlier.  I wanna see steady <20 for a couple weeks then into the single digits.  56 cases is badass though, I wouldn’t expect more than 10 hospitalizations out of that group for sure.

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26 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Hope that 34 is a major outlier.  I wanna see steady <20 for a couple weeks then into the single digits.  56 cases is badass though, I wouldn’t expect more than 10 hospitalizations out of that group for sure.

It is going to be interesting if combo of awareness of symptoms, vaccine availability increasing and people knowing that the bulk of the time the course of treatment from Dr. is to just stay home and rest/take advil/hydrate works to suppress people getting tested and in case of vaccine start to reduce case numbers. 
 

I could see admits and cases split from one another in that scenario. Key is getting more and more people vaccinated. I’ve been on Spring Break and next to no one is wearing mask. I’m in SE OK so it’s a small town but it seems like no one is worried. Will be curious to see what degree of Spring Break bump we get

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22 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

It is going to be interesting if combo of awareness of symptoms, vaccine availability increasing and people knowing that the bulk of the time the course of treatment from Dr. is to just stay home and rest/take advil/hydrate works to suppress people getting tested and in case of vaccine start to reduce case numbers. 
 

I could see admits and cases split from one another in that scenario. Key is getting more and more people vaccinated. I’ve been on Spring Break and next to no one is wearing mask. I’m in SE OK so it’s a small town but it seems like no one is worried. Will be curious to see what degree of Spring Break bump we get

Yeah nobody in the south is doing anything to help from now on.  At this point we just have to hope that enough old people are vaccinated, staying home, or lucky over the next couple of weeks to avoid hospitalizations and deaths.

I think you are right about cases splitting from hospitalizations, although that’s the opposite of what I expected.  I expected cases to stay high while hospitalizations plummeted, due to olds being vaccinated.  But test reticence could negate that.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

It is going to be interesting if combo of awareness of symptoms, vaccine availability increasing and people knowing that the bulk of the time the course of treatment from Dr. is to just stay home and rest/take advil/hydrate works to suppress people getting tested and in case of vaccine start to reduce case numbers. 
 

I could see admits and cases split from one another in that scenario. Key is getting more and more people vaccinated. I’ve been on Spring Break and next to no one is wearing mask. I’m in SE OK so it’s a small town but it seems like no one is worried. Will be curious to see what degree of Spring Break bump we get

If you're gonna spend your Spring Break in a small town in SE Oklahoma, you're gonna have a bad time.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZFolrT-DLszUwclLCz1Kn02H_dC53V9TVt83z6ktcESSQ0qsRwRyJtbPQ6480esnBMdI&usqp=CAU

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9 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Yeah nobody in the south is doing anything to help from now on.  At this point we just have to hope that enough old people are vaccinated, staying home, or lucky over the next couple of weeks to avoid hospitalizations and deaths.

Yep, the Band-Aid has been ripped off in Austin.  People are still being good about wearing masks in stores and while moving around in restaurants.  But they're out and about in full force.

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12 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

It is going to be interesting if combo of awareness of symptoms, vaccine availability increasing and people knowing that the bulk of the time the course of treatment from Dr. is to just stay home and rest/take advil/hydrate works to suppress people getting tested and in case of vaccine start to reduce case numbers. 
 

I could see admits and cases split from one another in that scenario. Key is getting more and more people vaccinated. I’ve been on Spring Break and next to no one is wearing mask. I’m in SE OK so it’s a small town but it seems like no one is worried. Will be curious to see what degree of Spring Break bump we get

One good sign that may go against the theory of test reticence is that the positivity rate is still very low (4.3 as of today); I would assume that if the case numbers were low due to folks just not getting tested, that the positive rate would be spiking.  A low positivity rate with a dropping case count is a really good sign for the overall spread slowing.

One other thought: if in the end, the only people still susceptible to covid are those who haven’t gotten vaccinated (anti-vaxxers, who are generally in poor health), we may see the rate of hospitalizations/case go up dramatically.

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13 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

One good sign that may go against the theory of test reticence is that the positivity rate is still very low (4.3 as of today); I would assume that if the case numbers were low due to folks just not getting tested, that the positive rate would be spiking.  A low positivity rate with a dropping case count is a really good sign for the overall spread slowing.

One other thought: if in the end, the only people still susceptible to covid are those who haven’t gotten vaccinated (anti-vaxxers, who are generally in poor health), we may see the rate of hospitalizations/case go up dramatically.

You can't fix stupid, and if Darwin takes them I won't be shedding any tears.

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Man stabbed Jack in the Box manager 3 times after refusing to wear mask in League City, police say

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LEAGUE CITY, Texas (KTRK) -- Police in League City are looking for a man they say stabbed a Jack in the Box manager after being asked to wear a face mask or leave the restaurant.

It happened on Wednesday, March 17, around 8 p.m. at the Jack in the Box located at 1503 W. League City Parkway.

Police said the suspect, 53-year-old James Henry Schulz, walked in the restaurant without a face mask and was told he needed to have one in order to be served or use the drive-thru.

"[Schulz] belligerently refused and said they did not want to serve him because he was homeless and began yelling that he would be contacting his attorney as he was filming with his cell phone," said League City police chief Gary Ratliff during a briefing Thursday afternoon.

Surveillance video released by the police department shows the manager holding up the store's written policy as he escorts Schulz out the door. But seconds after turning his back, Schulz steps back into the restaurant, runs after the manager and attacks him with what appeared to be a pocketknife, according to investigators.

The manager was stabbed three times in the arm and upper torso. He was rushed to the hospital where he was treated and released.

Police have also released two photos of Schulz captured on surveillance video. In the images, Schulz is seen wearing a black and red flannel long-sleeved shirt and blue jeans. He's also seen wearing a camouflage hat. Police say Schultz was also seen carrying a green backpack.

10430149_man-jack-in-the-box-stabbing-SPLIT-TN-img.jpg

antimaskers are ramping up their stupidity into violent stupidity

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Good couple of days for Travis County with the past two days combining for just 180 cases. 26 admits Thursday and 18 Friday, 170 people hospitalized. Things continue to move in the right direction.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/19 vs 3/17 0 8 14 41 47 28 21 12 6 3 180
% of Daily Change 0.00% 4.44% 7.78% 22.78% 26.11% 15.56% 11.67% 6.67% 3.33% 1.67%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.14% 10.12% 25.60% 20.86% 15.07% 11.42% 6.74% 3.30% 2.18%  
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