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A story about a pathetic man's downfall


Francisco 2.0

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13 minutes ago, troph said:

This is all funny, it was funny last time too. But let’s not forget this is the next assault on democracy. We can laugh but fuck him to hell we have to defeat him soundly. If the republicans lose enough, not only will good things happen for us but the republicans may be forced to drop the bullshit. Do your part, let’s win this mother fucker.

Laughing is the only thing that’ll keep us sane for the next 2 years 

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17 minutes ago, troph said:

This is all funny, it was funny last time too. But let’s not forget this is the next assault on democracy. We can laugh but fuck him to hell we have to defeat him soundly. If the republicans lose enough, not only will good things happen for us but the republicans may be forced to drop the bullshit. Do your part, let’s win this mother fucker.

Honestly, it's a relief just to see everyone on the same page from the jump this time. It's exhausting and discouraging to constantly deal with rubes that treat trump and MAGA republicans as if they're operating in good faith. That small change makes all the difference to more effectively fight their disinformation and "people are saying" rhetoric. 

Just seems like more people are actually taking it seriously now

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1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

No way he can defeat a popular Florida governor backed by the Republican establishment.

DeSantis can wait for Trump to lose in ‘24 and then come in as the savior for ‘28, but the Republican establishment will not wait 6 years to recover from Trump’s losses from 2018-2022, and in ‘24, DeSantis will win every reliable (R) state, and probably have a chance at a few battleground states that Trump lost in 2020.

Like hpslugga said, what swing states that Trump lost last time, does Trump win in ‘24, and like Twicehorn said, most of those swing states fended off the Trumpkin election deniers.  Those swing states turned their backs on him in ‘20 and ‘22, and there’s nothing that says he can win them back,

I wonder if Trump was so low energy last night because Ivanka bailed on him, and people (BMDs) that he wanted to be there refused to be there.

7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

If he loses his primary would he run as an independent? That would be the best thing ever for the sake of democracy.

It would make him a lot of money to run as an independent.

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5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

If he loses his primary would he run as an independent? That would be the best thing ever for the sake of democracy.

I'm guessing as time passes by, and the mega donors publicly state their intentions, and he GOP waffles around on explicitly supporting him, he will threaten to take his ball and go to the MAGA/NAGA/Whatever the hell he calls it Party.  He may even actually do that, which as you said, would be a glorious thing.

He can't go independent, because the true independents aren't going to support him.

 

 

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1 minute ago, South Austin said:

It's in honor of one of the few aggy's to experience a national championship in recent memory.  The guy's a straight up baller.  The avatar only temporary.

I know the meat judging context. Just not used to it yet 

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6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

If he loses his primary would he run as an independent? That would be the best thing ever for the sake of democracy.

Depends on what stage the legal proceedings are in when the primary season is declared "Over"  Somebody else could have it wrapped up by April.  Or it could go all the way to the convention in August.  That's about a 4-month window.  

Here are the factors

-Knowing his personality like we do.  Even if it's mathematically impossible for him to overcome a delegate differential between him and the #1 contender, he stays in it and contests the primary at the Convention and calls for a floor vote.  

-He reads the tea leaves and knows he can't win the nomination.  So he pouts about the primary system being rigged by Deep State/Washington Swamp People/Insider Interests/et. al.  And breaks off somewhere between Spring and the Convention and becomes an Independent/MAGA Party/whatever/whogivesashit.  Question here is does he have enough time to get on the ballot in all 50 states?  Obviously some pro-Trumper SOS in many states would expedite and even help.  But all 50 states is a tough deal with just a few months to go, but I bet he could pull it off.  At some point during the primary season, when you start to hear rumors of "ground teams" in swing and blue states collecting signatures for some sort of "pro-Trump" referendum/petition...that's them proactively getting enough signatures to get his name on the ballot there as a backup plan under some other party name.  

If either of these happen, he obviously can't win the General.  He'd lose a floor vote based on delegates and Milwaukee will play out 1968 Chicago all over again.  If he runs alongside a GOP candidate, neither of them would win the general.  But his legal troubles would still be there in either case.  But in case #1, he's outta the race in August, giving the DoJ Five whole months to prosecute him even if the other GOP guy wins the general.  Case #2 is obviously horrible for him because it means even though he rides out his "Campaign Immunity!" bullshit into November, Biden and Garland stay in D.C. for another 50 months and slay him.  

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

And, praise be, the swing states seem to have fended off attempts to install election officials that will do the GQP bidding.  And, Trump has been mostly deplatformed to the general public for the last couple of years and people are still sick of his whining.

So he's going to be back in our faces for 18 months while the GQP attempts ridiculous stunts in the House with varying degrees of success.

I think by at least general election time, if not primary time, people are going to be quite sick of his shit, even many of the ones that kind of like his shit.

He’ll win the nomination because the nutters in his base who nominated people like Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz and over 300 other election deniers are still breathing. He should lose in his bid to get re-elected again just like last time. And yeah, it’ll probably be to Biden again barring any serious health issues. Biden is your Nick Saban or Urban Meyer if you’re looking for a proven winner who can beat Trump. Choosing an assistant and hoping to get the same result can be a bit risky.

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/day-1-of-the-trump-campaignand-his-donors-are-already-exhausted

 

Quote

When Donald Trump officially announced on Tuesday that he’s running for president again in 2024, the fundraising race reset.

But in many ways, that race never stopped. The former president has been raising money ceaselessly over the last year, and while his massive war chest might seem like an asset, in reality it could also pose some liabilities—especially as Trump tries to lock his grip on an increasingly nervous Republican Party.

 

Quote

The biggest single problem for Trump is that he cannot jumpstart his campaign with any of the money he’s been raising into his flagship Save America leadership PAC, which would otherwise give him an intimidating $70 million advantage.

There’s a hard rule against candidates using leadership PACs to support their own political efforts, so Trump’s campaign can’t touch any of that money. And that fact has led him to adopt some creative, confusing, and possibly unlawful ways of moving it around.

 

Quote

The Trump team will solve that problem with a joint fundraising committee, called “Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee.” (Not to be confused with Save America, or his Save America Joint Fundraising Committee, of course.) That new group will serve to connect the new campaign to Save America, opening up access to that valuable donor data.

But that still leaves the biggest question unanswered. Even after barraging donors with Save America fundraising requests for the last two years—including through automatically recurring donation schemes and potentially fraudulent promises—Trump now finds himself unable to put that money where he needs it the most. He’ll have to start fresh, and find a way to motivate and sustain a small-dollar base that’s coming off of a midterm fundraising blitz and is already dangerously exhausted.

 

Spoiler

Jordan Libowitz, communications director at government watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, explained that even though Trump wields a huge bankroll—with nearly three times more cash on hand than the Republican National Committee—Trump has hemmed himself in.

“It comes back to what I see as really the most basic thing: Donald Trump doesn’t like spending money on anything that isn’t Donald Trump—and he doesn’t even like spending his own money on Donald Trump,” Libowitz said. “He loves to spend other people’s money.”

Over the last two years, Trump has chosen to raise money for his personal leadership PAC, which Libowitz described as “just shy of a slush fund.”

“He can spend it on basically whatever he wants, except for his own re-election,” he said, pointing to lavish expenses and sky-high personal legal costs.

But recent data shows that Trump’s once mighty army of small-dollar donors might not be able and willing to give him what he needs.

“That’s a real concern,” Libowitz said. “They’re not megadonors. They only have so much money, and they’ve been getting asked to hand it over consistently for years now.”

While Trump has spent nearly all of the last two years licking his wounds at his Mar-a-Lago resort compound, he has also been bleeding his small-dollar donors dry. And it’s getting harder to convince them to part with their money. Trump’s most recent campaign finance filings revealed a total loss of more than $13 million, and every dollar he raises now is nearly wiped out by fundraising costs alone.

And that’s not just a concern for Trump; it’s also been a concern for the GOP.

To solve that problem, Trump’s allies have created super PACs to solicit money from wealthy backers in unlimited amounts.

But that’s created another headache, because the committees are really starting to pile up.

The full Trump-aligned apparatus counts at least nine separate active political committees. But because they often reuse the same names, it’s maddening to keep track of them. And all the old committees in this armada still have money left over, too—more than $10 million combined, though Trump can’t lay claim to all of it.

Here they are, in all their homonymous glory:

Donald J. Trump for President 2024


Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee


Save America (leadership PAC; $69.7 million in the bank)


Make America Great Again PAC (converted from the old Trump campaign; $1.1 million in the bank)


Save America Joint Fundraising Committee (splits money between Save America and MAGA PAC; $6.3 million in the bank)


Make America Great Again, Inc. (new super PAC; $23.4 million in the bank)


Make America Great Again Action (old super PAC created by Corey Lewandowski; essentially defunct, but with $725,000 in the bank)


Make America Great Again, Again! Inc. (super PAC created after Lewandowski got axed for allegedly sexually assaulting a donor; reportedly winding down; $1.6 million in the bank)


Trump Make America Great Again (small-dollar joint fundraising committee between the old campaign and the Republican National Committee; reportedly started winding down last year; $5.4 million in the bank)


America First Action (old super PAC; reportedly winding down; $1.5 million in the bank)


Trump Victory (high-dollar joint fundraising committee between the old campaign and RNC; reportedly winding down; $1.8 million in the bank)


In all, these committees sit on $111.5 million. And campaign finance rules mean that Trump’s new campaign won’t be allowed to access the vast majority of it—including all that super PAC megadonor cash.

But that doesn’t mean he won’t attempt to skirt those rules. In fact, it appears he’s already trying to do just that.

The first indicator came last month, when the Save America leadership PAC transferred a whopping $20 million to the new Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC (MAGA Inc.).

The move raised eyebrows among legal observers, who said it appeared Trump was trying to get a jumpstart on his campaign by funding a super PAC that would support him in the future. Only problem: That’s against the law.

Brendan Fischer, deputy director of good government watchdog Documented, told The Daily Beast that, with the midterms over, it is “even more obvious” that the MAGA Inc. super PAC “was never really about helping other candidates, and always about helping Trump.”

“When it comes to helping Republicans in the midterms, MAGA Inc. was kind of a bust. It spent money late on races that were already saturated, and the roughly $16 million it spent may not even put it in the top 20 outside spending groups,” Fischer said, pointing out that all this was happening while Save America’s bank account was full to the brim with money he could have spent on those races.

However, Fischer said, since Save America’s funds can’t be used to support Trump’s presidential run, he transferred the money to MAGA Inc.

“The super PAC spent a relatively small amount in the final stretch of the midterms, and the remainder will almost certainly be spent backing Trump’s 2024 run,” he said.

On Monday, the nonpartisan government watchdog Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint with the FEC, accusing Trump of breaking the law on the eve of his big announcement.

Saurav Ghosh, CLC’s director of federal campaign finance reform, told The Daily Beast that Trump clearly wants to be able to use the money he’s raised for himself, but the law stands in the way of that.

Ghosh said that those coordination rules are “often openly trampled by candidates, particularly ones running for president.”

 

“Presidential candidates want to get a leg up and start out with as big a war chest as possible. It’s clear that Trump saw Save America as that war chest from the very beginning, and his legal team put together one way for this pot to be available on day one,” Ghosh said. “Unfortunately, the law accounts for not when you announce you’re going to run, but when you decided that you were going to run. So the decision to transfer all this money is a violation of that law.”

Still, this all leaves Trump with the enviable problem of what to do with his nearly $70 million in Save America funds—much of which he raised on the back of the Big Lie, and can spend on essentially anything but his own campaign.

“It’s really a question of what does he do next,” Ghosh said. “You can only spend so much money with direct transfers to other candidates and on staging events, but eventually you run out of ways to spend the money. At this point the midterms are over and the only thing he can spend the ads on is for himself. So what he’s doing is putting it into a vehicle that can buy ads for Donald Trump, and attack his opponents.”

Libowitz echoed that point, and said Save America’s millions, which can be transferred directly to campaigns and spent on political ads for other candidates, could serve as a “carrot and stick”—to both incentivize allies and intimidate rivals.

As for those rivals, Trump’s chief concern, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, happens to face a problem similar to Trump.

“DeSantis is raising this absurd amount of money into his state PAC, clearly given to him by donors with the understanding that he’s going to run for president,” Ghosh said. Like Trump, DeSantis can’t put that money toward a federal presidential campaign, and he can’t transfer it to a pro-DeSantis super PAC.

“No one will ever do this, but you can refund it and ask those donors to give it instead to a committee that you’ve set up for a federal campaign,” Ghosh said. “But you can’t just move the money wherever you want.”

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I have a strong suspicion that we will eventually learn that Trump genuinely believes that announcing his candidacy provides some sort of blanket immunity against all crimes, hence the rushed announcement that seemingly nobody else wanted him to make.

He wanted to announce before the midterms but they talked him into waiting. He absolutely is declaring so he can claim any coming indictments are politically motivated. 

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

It was so fucking nice to not hear that whiny, dry voice going off on rambling, pointless rants recently.  Even the way he often just leans against the podium and drools ‘words’ into the microphone is pathetic…and yet Biden ‘can’t string sentences together’.  
 

But I’m with Stache, I wanna see him get primary’d and then run as an independent.  He can leech votes away from the GOP like he leeched global goodwill away from our country, and it’ll be their own fault for hitching the wagon to this dumbass grifter in the first place.  

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2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

And, praise be, the swing states seem to have fended off attempts to install election officials that will do the GQP bidding.  And, Trump has been mostly deplatformed to the general public for the last couple of years and people are still sick of his whining.

So he's going to be back in our faces for 18 months while the GQP attempts ridiculous stunts in the House with varying degrees of success.

I think by at least general election time, if not primary time, people are going to be quite sick of his shit, even many of the ones that kind of like his shit.

Several of his chosen candidates lost by very small margins. If gas prices hadn't gone down I'm almost certain the "red wave" would have happened. If they go up again, or if something bad happens in the next two years, or if inflation gets worse, he'll win again easily. Never forget the stupidity of our citizenship. 

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Say what you want about DeSantis, but he's not stupid.  Trump, all politics aside, appears/performs/speaks as a person of average, if not slightly below average, intelligence.  

I think Trump is gonna raise a fuckton of money off this new scam for the next 15 months.  He knows once official primary season starts and he starts trailing in delegate counts, fundraising will cool down and fast.  Sometime between April and August, I think he has to break off and run 3rd party so he can maintain "Candidate Immunity" or "Campaign Immunity" or whatever slogan his t-shirt people are coming up with right now.  But he also knows that seals his fate, that means the Democrats maintain the White House and the DoJ.  Which means in 2025 his whole nightmare starts all over again.  Or he can protest the primary system while he's in it saying it's rigged, it's being stolen from him, etc.  

I think he's simply gonna drop dead before November 2024.  He'll be 78.5 years old, in worse and worse shape, running himself ragged across the country to fundraisers, media appearances, and depositions.  He's got pretty good energy for a 76.5 year old right now, but 103 weeks of campaigning?  Nobody has ever done that in history, and especially with that legal mess hanging over their heads to boot.  Had he just chilled out in Mar-a-Lago for 2021, 2022, & 2023 golfing and losing weight, I think he'd be formidable to campaign against for all of 2024.  But he's already run himself ragged the past two years and wants to ramp it up even more for 2 more?  Whoever his physician is should have their license revoked.  OR WILL I?  bwahahahahahaha

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Which he'll start another PAC to pay for.  

Inflation is concerning to me and my wife, but I don't think I'd opt to make it worse by sending each of his 7 active PAC's $100 every single month for the last two years and the next two years.  Kinda like gas prices are high, so why am I buying an F-250 again when I don't use it for work?  

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41 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

He wanted to announce before the midterms but they talked him into waiting. He absolutely is declaring so he can claim any coming indictments are politically motivated. 

And to boost donations. Stop the steal ran its course, and glomming on to midterm candidates at a 95/5 split is over. On to 2024 asap. 
 

 

also, what kind of beta cuck soyboys just say ok when they’re told they can’t leave a place they want to leave?  

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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28 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Say what you want about DeSantis, but he's not stupid.  Trump, all politics aside, appears/performs/speaks as a person of average, if not slightly below average, intelligence.  

I think Trump is gonna raise a fuckton of money off this new scam for the next 15 months.  He knows once official primary season starts and he starts trailing in delegate counts, fundraising will cool down and fast.  Sometime between April and August, I think he has to break off and run 3rd party so he can maintain "Candidate Immunity" or "Campaign Immunity" or whatever slogan his t-shirt people are coming up with right now.  But he also knows that seals his fate, that means the Democrats maintain the White House and the DoJ.  Which means in 2025 his whole nightmare starts all over again.  Or he can protest the primary system while he's in it saying it's rigged, it's being stolen from him, etc.  

I think he's simply gonna drop dead before November 2024.  He'll be 78.5 years old, in worse and worse shape, running himself ragged across the country to fundraisers, media appearances, and depositions.  He's got pretty good energy for a 76.5 year old right now, but 103 weeks of campaigning?  Nobody has ever done that in history, and especially with that legal mess hanging over their heads to boot.  Had he just chilled out in Mar-a-Lago for 2021, 2022, & 2023 golfing and losing weight, I think he'd be formidable to campaign against for all of 2024.  But he's already run himself ragged the past two years and wants to ramp it up even more for 2 more?  Whoever his physician is should have their license revoked.  OR WILL I?  bwahahahahahaha

2913p0.jpg

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Honestly, it's a relief just to see everyone on the same page from the jump this time. It's exhausting and discouraging to constantly deal with rubes that treat trump and MAGA republicans as if they're operating in good faith. That small change makes all the difference to more effectively fight their disinformation and "people are saying" rhetoric. 

Just seems like more people are actually taking it seriously now

Gen Z will be a voting force in ‘24, something they were definitely not in ‘16. I don’t think people will be blindsided this time. 

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47 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

Depressing and funny NY Post today.

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I guess that's funny and all but it just shows what a POS rag the NY Post is. What a joke. Either cover the fucking news or don't. Just further proof that the NY Post is simply GOP propaganda masquerading as legitimate news.

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2 hours ago, Bookman said:

How can they prevent people from leaving? Isn't that kidnapping?

Had a fun conversation about this with an APD officer in training the night of the LSU game a few years back. He told our group we couldn't leave the bar because the manager didn't want us to leave even after they knew the bar tab dispute was with someone else. Thankfully his supervisor agreed that private property rights mean you can make someone leave, not make them stay. I know, cool story bro.

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54 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Several of his chosen candidates lost by very small margins. If gas prices hadn't gone down I'm almost certain the "red wave" would have happened. If they go up again, or if something bad happens in the next two years, or if inflation gets worse, he'll win again easily. Never forget the stupidity of our citizenship. 

In a fairly contested election, there are too many people that detest Trump for being the baby-back bitch, whiny pyschopath that he is. He has a core group of dipshits, and that number isn't growing. The GQP might be able to win an election with someone else at the top of the ticket, but if Trump is at the top of the ticket he will simply drive too much opposition vote. Too many people hate that fat stupid motherfucker. Shit, even sugartits and the kush are bailing on him. 

Of course if the GQP manages to pull off an election steal by refusing to certify votes, imposing "alternate" electors, etc... then I guess anything is possible and at that point it doesn't really matter who they run. 

Edited by Blotto
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Also, thoughts and prayers to Congressman Matt Gaetz as he continues to endure the grueling weather and elements in D.C.  As many of you know, he tweeted out that he was unable to travel to Mar-a-Lago for the big announcement, but was "there in spirit", with his Lord & Savior.  I am setting up a gofundme account to get Rep. Gaetz the food, supplies, and teenagers he so desperately needs in these challenging times.  Gofundme.com is cool with human trafficking, right?  

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4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Of course if the GQP manages to pull off an election steal by refusing to certify votes, imposing "alternate" electors, etc... then I guess anything is possible and at that point it doesn't really matter who they run. 

one thing to note - both houses of the Michigan legislature flipped to D and it's possible the Pennsylvania house will flip to D. So no "alternate electors" from those states. 

Georgia requires a special session called by the governor and we all know how Kemp fells about Trump...

IMHO the big reason the GOP wants DeSantis is he can flip at least Georgia and Arizona back and possibly one of Pennsylvania/Michigan. None of those are in play if Trump runs.

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  • Bozo_Casanova changed the title to Poll: President Trump's Major Announcement


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